We agree about the definition of backwardation. I am disagreeing with the post's statement that backwardation implies the invasion is "already priced in" to inf

We agree about the definition of backwardation. I am disagreeing with the post's statement that backwardation implies the invasion is "already priced in" to inflation, when at the time of writing they implied a rapid recovery. If you look at the curve since OP, you'll see it's is actually less backwardated than it's been all year (due to repeated releases from the US reserves). But long term futures are near their highest - suggesting a worse picture for impact on consumer prices over time. Source: traded oil futures professionally. Data you can watch: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/marketreview/crude.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/marketreview/crude.php