7 ms·

Wait till TSMC gets nationalized by China. Apple doesn’t own any fabs and I don’t think anyone else can manufacture their chips.

evgen 5y ago
Do you have any idea what the T in TSMC stands for? None of the important fabs (or at least none getting the latest tech) are in China and you are not going to see another TSMC fab built in China. Ever.
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  Well... you are eliding the one, rather decisive way TSMC could indeed end up in Chinese hands. We just have to hope that the Ukraine conflict has convinced China not to try to pull it off. We certainly would not be able to find economic sanctions that could possibly work if they did.
  - neoromantique 5y ago
    > Well... you are eliding the one, rather decisive way TSMC could indeed end up in Chinese hands. The only thing that can end up in Chinese hands is the rubble of what used to be TSMC facilities.
    - threeseed 5y ago
      You need three things to keep TSMC operational: facilities, supply chain and people. Ukraine has shown that those can evaporate in mere days.
      - anadem 5y ago
        True, but that doesn't imply that TMSC will be taken over by China. In Ukraine, the territory is what Russia wants (minerals, crops) but in Taiwan it's the "human capital" that's desirable, and the latter isn't so susceptible to invasion. It's likely that Russia, with ten times the armed forces of Ukraine, will devastate Ukraine, unfortunately. But China is more likely to hold off devastating Taiwan.
    - davidf18 5y ago
  - prpl 5y ago
    If things go any worse in Shanghai that might be a more realistic demotivator
threeseed 5y ago
a) Ukraine situation has shown that a clean, Hong Kong style takeover of Taiwan is increasingly unlikely. Europe has irrevocably changed and is far more hawkish and willing to join the US in economic coercion which China will struggle to defend against. And AUKUS, Quad, AU-JP-UK-US etc are solidifying and unifying opposition in ways never even imagined a few years ago. b) Intel spun up their Foundry Services division specifically to manufacture chips for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft etc.
- butlerm 5y ago
  A Hong Kong style takeover of Taiwan would never happen unless a supermajority of the Taiwanese wanted to give their country away to a totalitarian genocidal police state. Where is the upside?

evgen 5y ago

Do you have any idea what the T in TSMC stands for? None of the important fabs (or at least none getting the latest tech) are in China and you are not going to see another TSMC fab built in China. Ever.

unfocussed_mike 5y ago
Well... you are eliding the one, rather decisive way TSMC could indeed end up in Chinese hands. We just have to hope that the Ukraine conflict has convinced China not to try to pull it off. We certainly would not be able to find economic sanctions that could possibly work if they did.
- neoromantique 5y ago
  > Well... you are eliding the one, rather decisive way TSMC could indeed end up in Chinese hands. The only thing that can end up in Chinese hands is the rubble of what used to be TSMC facilities.
  - threeseed 5y ago
    You need three things to keep TSMC operational: facilities, supply chain and people. Ukraine has shown that those can evaporate in mere days.
    - anadem 5y ago
      True, but that doesn't imply that TMSC will be taken over by China. In Ukraine, the territory is what Russia wants (minerals, crops) but in Taiwan it's the "human capital" that's desirable, and the latter isn't so susceptible to invasion. It's likely that Russia, with ten times the armed forces of Ukraine, will devastate Ukraine, unfortunately. But China is more likely to hold off devastating Taiwan.
  - davidf18 5y ago
- prpl 5y ago
  If things go any worse in Shanghai that might be a more realistic demotivator

threeseed 5y ago

a) Ukraine situation has shown that a clean, Hong Kong style takeover of Taiwan is increasingly unlikely. Europe has irrevocably changed and is far more hawkish and willing to join the US in economic coercion which China will struggle to defend against. And AUKUS, Quad, AU-JP-UK-US etc are solidifying and unifying opposition in ways never even imagined a few years ago. b) Intel spun up their Foundry Services division specifically to manufacture chips for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft etc.

butlerm 5y ago
A Hong Kong style takeover of Taiwan would never happen unless a supermajority of the Taiwanese wanted to give their country away to a totalitarian genocidal police state. Where is the upside?