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"Null hypothesis" comes down to agreeing on a prior that is "reasonable". Most of the time, that indeed means not assuming dependencies, e.g. when testing the o
by andersource 4y ago
"Null hypothesis" comes down to agreeing on a prior that is "reasonable". Most of the time, that indeed means not assuming dependencies, e.g. when testing the outcomes of a medical treatment. But that's not always the case, e.g. does it seem reasonable to you to assume a priori no dependency between a person's age and their height? Does the result "People get taller until the age of 20" merit a journal article? There's a very strong correlation there after all.
As I've written elsewhere this all comes down to the prior, based on my life experience the prior "people are generally capable of self-assessing their performance" is much more likely than "people have absolutely no ability to self-assess their performance."
To state it differently, when you assume no dependencies anywhere, you've already jumped to a conclusion that is more far-fetched to me than the results of DK. Do you really think people have zero ability to self-assess their own performance? In all domains and all contexts, as this is your "null hypothesis"?
- uoaei 4y agoI invite you to ponder on the etymology and actual definition of the word "null". It does not refer to some antecedent or to some notion of "reason", it refers as explicitly as possible to "not-x", contra whatever effect generates "x". You are conflating the construction of the null hypothesis with a more liberal notion of hypothesis testing (science) per se.