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$TWTR has been trending down over the last year. When he bought, the price went up 27%, signaling that people thought his involvement would be positive for the

by daenz 5y ago

$TWTR has been trending down over the last year. When he bought, the price went up 27%, signaling that people thought his involvement would be positive for the company. If he says "twitter is hopeless" and pulls out, the sentiment will be that nothing can save twitter.

Waterluvian 5y ago
Yup that tracks. Thanks!
- Tostino 5y ago
  Which is just fucking rank market manipulation
  - trixie_ 5y ago
    If he honestly wants to buy it which given the hoops he's jumping through seems to be the case then it's not 'manipulation' at all. Every move Elon makes is going to change the price. I think we all know he's not 'in it for the money' so it'd be pretty hard to make the case for manipulation. He really wants it. And if everyone else thinks Twitter would be better off with Elon as owner the stock goes up. And if he gives up trying, the stock goes down. That's not manipulation, that's sentiment.
stupandaus 5y ago
this is incorrect. the price going up is a reflection of the market's believe about the % likelihood of a deal. for example at market close of $45.08, the market is betting there is a $45.08/$54.20 = 83% chance that this transaction goes through. there are certainly individual stockholders who are buying because they like his involvement, but that is tiny compared to people buying and selling a very near-term bet
- BurningFrog 5y ago
  > at market close of $45.08, the market is betting there is a $45.08/$54.20 = 83% chance that this transaction goes through. This assumes the price without the transactions goes to $0.00!
  - stupandaus 5y ago
    yes, there are many factors that can influence a valuation. and in different price ranges, different factors will have different weights. since the price is not $0 today and is relatively close to the potential transaction price, the % likelihood of a transaction has much more influence.
    - ironSkillet 5y ago
      I think the comment is more about the fact that your calculation of 83% doesn't make sense. However, I agree with you that likelihood of the deal going through is definitely impacting the short term valuation.
  - bscphil 5y ago
    Correct, and furthermore, Musk's offer was made after he announced his stake in the company, which is what caused the price of the stock to rise. Him offering to buy it outright barely affected the share price: > The social media company’s shares were little changed at $45.81 in New York on Thursday, a sign there’s skepticism that one of the platform’s most outspoken users will succeed in his takeover attempt. -- Bloomberg So while the news of a major stakeholder with the power to join the board and affect how things are run did cause a significant blip in Twitter's stock price, the attempt to buy it outright doesn't seem to have affected things much. Even if we (incorrectly) assumed that all of the rise from ~$40 to ~$45 is associated with the possibility of Musk paying $54 a share, that suggests the market assigns only a ~36% chance of the deal going through.
sudosysgen 5y ago
No, it's not. It's people that want to buy, so they can sell it at a premium to Musk later. It's pure speculation.
GCU-Empiricist 5y ago
I keep seeing this sentiment, and it seems like wishful thinking.. The paper is out there on how to defeat the poison pill: trigger the pill, let the stock tank, offer at a lower price per share but at the same market value plus what was put into the company to acquire the new stock by the diluters. Full market price is full market price. Look at Musk's investment in automation at Tesla he knows how to play the long game. ttps://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1102&context=law_faculty_scholarship

by daenz 5y ago

Waterluvian 5y ago

Yup that tracks. Thanks!

Tostino 5y ago
Which is just fucking rank market manipulation
- trixie_ 5y ago
  If he honestly wants to buy it which given the hoops he's jumping through seems to be the case then it's not 'manipulation' at all. Every move Elon makes is going to change the price. I think we all know he's not 'in it for the money' so it'd be pretty hard to make the case for manipulation. He really wants it. And if everyone else thinks Twitter would be better off with Elon as owner the stock goes up. And if he gives up trying, the stock goes down. That's not manipulation, that's sentiment.

stupandaus 5y ago

this is incorrect. the price going up is a reflection of the market's believe about the % likelihood of a deal. for example at market close of $45.08, the market is betting there is a $45.08/$54.20 = 83% chance that this transaction goes through. there are certainly individual stockholders who are buying because they like his involvement, but that is tiny compared to people buying and selling a very near-term bet

BurningFrog 5y ago
> at market close of $45.08, the market is betting there is a $45.08/$54.20 = 83% chance that this transaction goes through. This assumes the price without the transactions goes to $0.00!
- stupandaus 5y ago
  yes, there are many factors that can influence a valuation. and in different price ranges, different factors will have different weights. since the price is not $0 today and is relatively close to the potential transaction price, the % likelihood of a transaction has much more influence.
  - ironSkillet 5y ago
    I think the comment is more about the fact that your calculation of 83% doesn't make sense. However, I agree with you that likelihood of the deal going through is definitely impacting the short term valuation.
- bscphil 5y ago
  Correct, and furthermore, Musk's offer was made after he announced his stake in the company, which is what caused the price of the stock to rise. Him offering to buy it outright barely affected the share price: > The social media company’s shares were little changed at $45.81 in New York on Thursday, a sign there’s skepticism that one of the platform’s most outspoken users will succeed in his takeover attempt. -- Bloomberg So while the news of a major stakeholder with the power to join the board and affect how things are run did cause a significant blip in Twitter's stock price, the attempt to buy it outright doesn't seem to have affected things much. Even if we (incorrectly) assumed that all of the rise from ~$40 to ~$45 is associated with the possibility of Musk paying $54 a share, that suggests the market assigns only a ~36% chance of the deal going through.

sudosysgen 5y ago

No, it's not. It's people that want to buy, so they can sell it at a premium to Musk later. It's pure speculation.

GCU-Empiricist 5y ago

I keep seeing this sentiment, and it seems like wishful thinking.. The paper is out there on how to defeat the poison pill: trigger the pill, let the stock tank, offer at a lower price per share but at the same market value plus what was put into the company to acquire the new stock by the diluters. Full market price is full market price. Look at Musk's investment in automation at Tesla he knows how to play the long game. ttps://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1102&context=law_faculty_scholarship