4 ms·

I mean, the US has had a million covid deaths. China presumably doesn't want 3 million deaths?

whimsicalism 5y ago
This is the obvious response and I am confused every time I see an article criticizing these lockdowns. They all seem to be written from the American herd immunity point of view, neglecting that we paved the way to herd immunity with the bodies of a million of our own citizens.
- thereisnospork 5y ago
  The problem is the lack of an endgame. For better or worse, Covid is endemic in Europe and the continental US[0]. All it takes is one false-negative test at the border[1] and a tourist or business traveler could easily create tens of millions of potential infectees (airport -> subway -> secondary city) to requisite additional lockdowns of tens of millions of people. [0]And quite probably large parts of Asia, including countries bordering China if not China itself. [1]Or rogue/lucky virus. I don't recall if it was substantiated, but I believe New Zealand at one point credibly hypothesized an outbreak had resulted from a virus preserved in a frozen food shipment.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    [flagged]
    - moralestapia 5y ago
      >China's elderly are even worse anti-vaxxers than we are And that's within the scope of their rights, as stated in documents like UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
    - throw_nbvc1234 5y ago
      Combined with their refusal to use western vaccines. If your only goal is to protect your citizens then there doesn't seem to be a good rational to make that decision; this situation is at least somewhat political. I'm curious if this will keep occurring during the N months it takes for them to develop and test efficacious mRNA vaccines and deliver them to a significant portion of the population.
      - whimsicalism 5y ago
        I don't know enough about this really to comment - I am unsure if they were restricted from using the mRNA vaccine in any way. If they could have acquired supply and didn't, that seems extremely foolish.
- uxp100 5y ago
  I mean, I think people believe that there would not be that many deaths because China has a heavily vaccinated population and a less strict lockdown could still be stricter than anything the US did, perhaps something closer to Australia. On the first point, I think that the Chinese vaccine is much worse than the mRNA vaccines against Omicron, but I'm not sure what that would mean for death rates. On the second point, well, I guess the Chinese government tried that to some degree, but didn't feel it was going well.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - rnk 5y ago
    A less effective vaccine pretty directly leads to higher death rates. I read in other news articles they didn't aggressively vaccinate older people like we did. Apparently a similar thing has happened in Hong Kong.
    - uxp100 5y ago
      Well, less effective on some measure is not the same as less effective as preventing death, and I'm not sure how much less effective it is, actually.
      - jpgvm 5y ago
        Data out of Turkey, Brazil etc where Chinese vaccines were widely deployed with less lockdowns/restrictions do suggest lower efficacy at both reducing hospitalization and death. That said they are still fairly effective, just apparently not effective enough that China is willing to activate the floodgates. Also they have low vaccine penetration among the elderly which are hesitant to take vaccines in general
sanderjd 5y ago
They could (have) vaccinate(d) people more effectively.

This is the obvious response and I am confused every time I see an article criticizing these lockdowns. They all seem to be written from the American herd immunity point of view, neglecting that we paved the way to herd immunity with the bodies of a million of our own citizens.

thereisnospork 5y ago
The problem is the lack of an endgame. For better or worse, Covid is endemic in Europe and the continental US[0]. All it takes is one false-negative test at the border[1] and a tourist or business traveler could easily create tens of millions of potential infectees (airport -> subway -> secondary city) to requisite additional lockdowns of tens of millions of people. [0]And quite probably large parts of Asia, including countries bordering China if not China itself. [1]Or rogue/lucky virus. I don't recall if it was substantiated, but I believe New Zealand at one point credibly hypothesized an outbreak had resulted from a virus preserved in a frozen food shipment.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  [flagged]
  - moralestapia 5y ago
    >China's elderly are even worse anti-vaxxers than we are And that's within the scope of their rights, as stated in documents like UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
  - throw_nbvc1234 5y ago
    Combined with their refusal to use western vaccines. If your only goal is to protect your citizens then there doesn't seem to be a good rational to make that decision; this situation is at least somewhat political. I'm curious if this will keep occurring during the N months it takes for them to develop and test efficacious mRNA vaccines and deliver them to a significant portion of the population.
    - whimsicalism 5y ago
      I don't know enough about this really to comment - I am unsure if they were restricted from using the mRNA vaccine in any way. If they could have acquired supply and didn't, that seems extremely foolish.
uxp100 5y ago
I mean, I think people believe that there would not be that many deaths because China has a heavily vaccinated population and a less strict lockdown could still be stricter than anything the US did, perhaps something closer to Australia. On the first point, I think that the Chinese vaccine is much worse than the mRNA vaccines against Omicron, but I'm not sure what that would mean for death rates. On the second point, well, I guess the Chinese government tried that to some degree, but didn't feel it was going well.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- rnk 5y ago
  A less effective vaccine pretty directly leads to higher death rates. I read in other news articles they didn't aggressively vaccinate older people like we did. Apparently a similar thing has happened in Hong Kong.
  - uxp100 5y ago
    Well, less effective on some measure is not the same as less effective as preventing death, and I'm not sure how much less effective it is, actually.
    - jpgvm 5y ago
      Data out of Turkey, Brazil etc where Chinese vaccines were widely deployed with less lockdowns/restrictions do suggest lower efficacy at both reducing hospitalization and death. That said they are still fairly effective, just apparently not effective enough that China is willing to activate the floodgates. Also they have low vaccine penetration among the elderly which are hesitant to take vaccines in general

sanderjd 5y ago

They could (have) vaccinate(d) people more effectively.