6 ms·

Why are they still pursuing Zero Covid? I know the article includes some speculation on this, but what's the best explanation?

by memish 5y ago

mpfundstein 5y ago
because failure is not an option for regimes like the CCP.
dougmwne 5y ago
As near I can tell it is an arbitrary decision of an authoritarian government that is too deep into sunk cost to reverse course.
- xster 5y ago
  What's the sunken cost of this policy?
  - mmcnl 5y ago
    Perhaps afraid that backtracking would be seen as a confirmation of policy error?
  - jackcosgrove 5y ago
    I had heard that Zero COVID is a policy associated with the Xi Jinping camp within the CCP, and not-Zero COVID is associated with his opponents. Backing down from Zero COVID would embolden Xi's opponents.
ahmedalsudani 5y ago
- lower natural immunity rates because zero COVID had been successful - lower vaccination rates - vaccine drives prioritized the young and healthy (the idea being they can handle side effects so this seemed like the best way to achieve herd immunity) - the newer strains are super infectious and would overwhelm the healthcare system They don't have a good way out now. They should have used the time they got last year to buy MRNA vaccines, but they did not. The central government has likely given up on zero COVID but are sticking with those policies for now to "flatten the curve" while this wave takes its course.
- LorenPechtel 5y ago
  Yup. Failure is going to come at a horrendous price--I wouldn't be surprised at a 7-figure death toll. They're desperately clinging to hope even though containment has obviously failed.
- AJ007 5y ago
  Also they have a vaccine that may not work.
  - ahmedalsudani 5y ago
    It helps prevent infection and temper symptoms but it's not as effective as the mRNA vaccines. Something like 50% vs 90% though that could be old data.
    - lazide 5y ago
      At least one new variant can burn through even double shot vaccinated and boosted in extreme cases. Due to various factors outside of my control, my toddler has now gotten Covid 4 times in the last year (10 months really). Antigen and PCR confirmed. Most recently, a minor window of exposure got my oldest sick (double shot vaccinated), and taking care of both of them eventually got me sick (double shot vaccinated, boosted, AND took care of my toddler in isolation for weeks at a time during his most infectious times the prior 3 times). I’ve had side effects/immune response before obviously, but never tested positive. This time I tested positive. No major adverse symptoms at least, but sick like with a moderate flu for a week+ despite all that is no fun. Folks with no prior exposure and a weaker vaccine? Yikes.
      - ahmedalsudani 5y ago
        Ouch! 4 times in a year is crazy! Glad to hear your infection came with no severe symptoms. Being able to come in contact without worrying about being the unlucky person who gets hospitalized is something to be thankful for. The vaccines have been a gift.
    - 5y ago
diebeforei485 5y ago
I mean, the US has had a million covid deaths. China presumably doesn't want 3 million deaths?
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  This is the obvious response and I am confused every time I see an article criticizing these lockdowns. They all seem to be written from the American herd immunity point of view, neglecting that we paved the way to herd immunity with the bodies of a million of our own citizens.
  - thereisnospork 5y ago
    The problem is the lack of an endgame. For better or worse, Covid is endemic in Europe and the continental US[0]. All it takes is one false-negative test at the border[1] and a tourist or business traveler could easily create tens of millions of potential infectees (airport -> subway -> secondary city) to requisite additional lockdowns of tens of millions of people. [0]And quite probably large parts of Asia, including countries bordering China if not China itself. [1]Or rogue/lucky virus. I don't recall if it was substantiated, but I believe New Zealand at one point credibly hypothesized an outbreak had resulted from a virus preserved in a frozen food shipment.
    - whimsicalism 5y ago
      [flagged]
      - moralestapia 5y ago
        >China's elderly are even worse anti-vaxxers than we are And that's within the scope of their rights, as stated in documents like UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
      - throw_nbvc1234 5y ago
        Combined with their refusal to use western vaccines. If your only goal is to protect your citizens then there doesn't seem to be a good rational to make that decision; this situation is at least somewhat political. I'm curious if this will keep occurring during the N months it takes for them to develop and test efficacious mRNA vaccines and deliver them to a significant portion of the population.
sva_ 5y ago
I find it fairly amusing that people who believe in the "lableak-hypothesis" seem to usually also be in the camp of people who don't think the virus is too bad. If the virus really came from the lab, then presumably the Chinese know more about its (long term) effects than the rest of us. And looking at the fact, that they have this zero COVID policy, that should absolutely terrify anyone believing in the aforementioned hypothesis.
- extheat 5y ago
  > then presumably the Chinese know more about its (long term) effects than the rest of us Not necessarily true. The lab in question has been known to house coronavirus variants and done bat research. SARS-cov-2 isn't the first coronavirus out of China, remember SARS-cov-1. This is not in dispute. What was in dispute is if it leaked from there or not, or spread naturally outside human error. The proximity of the lab to the first cases, the measures taken there before the known spread of the virus and their attempt to destroy information about it is what leads to speculation. We may never know what actually happened outside anecdotal information without more information from China. Given the low likelihood of it being human engineered though, we should probably still be able to trace how it evolved in nature before spreading to humans. I don't see the correlation between this and the zero-COVID policy. Labs (ethically) work with pathogens all the time, they obviously don't inject viruses into humans without substantial cause.
  - nomel 5y ago
    > Labs (ethically) work with pathogens all the time, they obviously don't inject viruses into humans without substantial cause. There's a long history that shows this is clearly not how lab leaks work.
- _dain_ 5y ago
  >If the virus really came from the lab, then presumably the Chinese know more about its (long term) effects than the rest of us. why would this be the case? any secret informational advantage they had at the start evaporated as soon as it got outside their borders. and today's virus is very different to the OG one they had in the lab before it was (presumably accidentally) leaked.
ComradePhil 5y ago
Maybe China knows more about the real long term effects of the virus because they have been studying it for a long time?
gpm 5y ago
Because it's been working, both from an economics and health perspective, and the locals seem to be in support of it, except for in Shanghai Here's a well known person in Shenzhen discussing it. Obviously be aware that any source in China can't speak too directly against the government, especially the central government. However I feel rather confident that this thread is a pretty good representation of her actual opinion having read a lot of her tweets on the topic. https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1514818345689776143 https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/151481834568977614...
- catchclose8919 5y ago
  "working" ? ...as in just pushing some deaths a few months in the future while being extremely inconvenient for everything and everyone and damaging to the global economy to an extent that might be more than the price of those lives
  - gpm 5y ago
    > ..as in just pushing some deaths a few months in the future I don't get the impression that the people in charge, or the people not-in-charge in China, agree with this assessment. I.e. to quote from the thread > If you're telling Chinese "Omicron can't be beaten" it's a hard sell because the West has been telling us COVID can't be beaten for two years- and most provinces here already have beaten Omicron. ... > being extremely inconvenient for everything and everyone and damaging to the global economy As above, to again quote from the thread I linked > Most Chinese have experienced few significant restrictions in the last two years due to COVID-Zero, fast lockdowns, and mass testing done at under 100 cases. The first time we hear about something new being tried- straying from that, it's an unforgivable human rights catastrophy. > We've been basically living a normal life for two years while we watch the rest of the world meltdown in a furnace of exceptionalism, overconfidence, and science denial. It's going to very, very hard to convince Chinese that we're doing it wrong.
  - bllguo 5y ago
    China's policies have kept the global economy afloat. They've been operating for the last two years almost at normal, in stark contrast to the US and company. And what a disgusting comment to make. Yes, how dare they stop producing goods for us to consume! Do you also discuss our obligations to the global economy like this? What is our comeuppance to be for our comically poor COVID policies reducing global demand?
throwaway73838 5y ago
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
- ccbccccbbcccbb 5y ago
  And it corrupts not only itself, but also the society it commands in general. That's why you had to use a throwaway to post an obvious truth that is guaranteed to trigger karma decrementers.
dictateawayyyee 5y ago
Probably the same 3 reasons that seem to drive most authoritarian stay-the-course decisions: * Can't admit the original plan isn't working without appearing weak. * Operating on information corrupted by "compounding optimism" from every level of subordinates. * Repercussions for bad outcomes are unlikely.
munk-a 5y ago
I think at this point it's sheer stubbornness and to save face for the administration. I personally believe that Zero Covid was a great strategy right out the gate but it's no longer appropriate since this is clearly a global pandemic... but maybe Xi is afraid of looking wrong in retrospect.
beefman 5y ago
Enforcing silly, ineffective policies may serve the same purpose as publishing silly, unpersuasive propaganda, in the sense of this recent article: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30962199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30962199
rossdavidh 5y ago
The standard rumor is that the Chinese vaccines do not work as well, either at slowing down the spread or at reducing the severity of the effects, as western vaccines (whether Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, or Oxford/AstraZeneca). So, the feared effects of having most people get it are worse than here. Also, in the US, the CDC estimates that for every 10 people who get it who were confirmed/counted, there were 32 who were not counted. Since many states have had >20% of their population confirmed, that suggests that >85% of many US states have already had Covid-19, vaccinated or not. The ratio of "immunologically naive" in China is probably much higher. Not saying that makes it a sensible or even moral policy, just that's the most likely scenario as to why they are doing it.
- jpgvm 5y ago
  Yeah combination of several factors. Lower vaccine penetration, lower efficacy, lower hospital capacity per capita. COVID zero is the only moral option, they can't choose the death of millions.
catchclose8919 5y ago
Authoritarian regimes benefit from cultivating fear of death and disease in their people, it makes them more manageable... Similar to not allowing regular people to own guns etc. etc. Once you become willing to die, to let others die if needed, and to kill, for freedom or other purposes, you're no longer an "easy to manage sheep" ;)
- memish 5y ago
  I hadn't thought about it that way. We're seeing some resistance in Shanghai, but not enough to stop it. Even when killing pets and separating children from parents. Lack of grocery deliveries. It's scary.
gscott 5y ago
The CCP refuses to import western vaccines. The only option is lock-down because Chinese vaccines are targeted to the original covid-19 strain. There are media reports that China is close to their own mRNA vaccine...

Why are they still pursuing Zero Covid? I know the article includes some speculation on this, but what's the best explanation?

by memish 5y ago

Why are they still pursuing Zero Covid? I know the article includes some speculation on this, but what's the best explanation?

mpfundstein 5y ago

because failure is not an option for regimes like the CCP.

dougmwne 5y ago

As near I can tell it is an arbitrary decision of an authoritarian government that is too deep into sunk cost to reverse course.

xster 5y ago
What's the sunken cost of this policy?
- mmcnl 5y ago
  Perhaps afraid that backtracking would be seen as a confirmation of policy error?
- jackcosgrove 5y ago
  I had heard that Zero COVID is a policy associated with the Xi Jinping camp within the CCP, and not-Zero COVID is associated with his opponents. Backing down from Zero COVID would embolden Xi's opponents.

ahmedalsudani 5y ago

- lower natural immunity rates because zero COVID had been successful - lower vaccination rates - vaccine drives prioritized the young and healthy (the idea being they can handle side effects so this seemed like the best way to achieve herd immunity) - the newer strains are super infectious and would overwhelm the healthcare system They don't have a good way out now. They should have used the time they got last year to buy MRNA vaccines, but they did not. The central government has likely given up on zero COVID but are sticking with those policies for now to "flatten the curve" while this wave takes its course.

LorenPechtel 5y ago
Yup. Failure is going to come at a horrendous price--I wouldn't be surprised at a 7-figure death toll. They're desperately clinging to hope even though containment has obviously failed.
AJ007 5y ago
Also they have a vaccine that may not work.
- ahmedalsudani 5y ago
  It helps prevent infection and temper symptoms but it's not as effective as the mRNA vaccines. Something like 50% vs 90% though that could be old data.
  - lazide 5y ago
    At least one new variant can burn through even double shot vaccinated and boosted in extreme cases. Due to various factors outside of my control, my toddler has now gotten Covid 4 times in the last year (10 months really). Antigen and PCR confirmed. Most recently, a minor window of exposure got my oldest sick (double shot vaccinated), and taking care of both of them eventually got me sick (double shot vaccinated, boosted, AND took care of my toddler in isolation for weeks at a time during his most infectious times the prior 3 times). I’ve had side effects/immune response before obviously, but never tested positive. This time I tested positive. No major adverse symptoms at least, but sick like with a moderate flu for a week+ despite all that is no fun. Folks with no prior exposure and a weaker vaccine? Yikes.
    - ahmedalsudani 5y ago
      Ouch! 4 times in a year is crazy! Glad to hear your infection came with no severe symptoms. Being able to come in contact without worrying about being the unlucky person who gets hospitalized is something to be thankful for. The vaccines have been a gift.
  - 5y ago

diebeforei485 5y ago

I mean, the US has had a million covid deaths. China presumably doesn't want 3 million deaths?

whimsicalism 5y ago
This is the obvious response and I am confused every time I see an article criticizing these lockdowns. They all seem to be written from the American herd immunity point of view, neglecting that we paved the way to herd immunity with the bodies of a million of our own citizens.
- thereisnospork 5y ago
  The problem is the lack of an endgame. For better or worse, Covid is endemic in Europe and the continental US[0]. All it takes is one false-negative test at the border[1] and a tourist or business traveler could easily create tens of millions of potential infectees (airport -> subway -> secondary city) to requisite additional lockdowns of tens of millions of people. [0]And quite probably large parts of Asia, including countries bordering China if not China itself. [1]Or rogue/lucky virus. I don't recall if it was substantiated, but I believe New Zealand at one point credibly hypothesized an outbreak had resulted from a virus preserved in a frozen food shipment.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    [flagged]
    - moralestapia 5y ago
      >China's elderly are even worse anti-vaxxers than we are And that's within the scope of their rights, as stated in documents like UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
    - throw_nbvc1234 5y ago
      Combined with their refusal to use western vaccines. If your only goal is to protect your citizens then there doesn't seem to be a good rational to make that decision; this situation is at least somewhat political. I'm curious if this will keep occurring during the N months it takes for them to develop and test efficacious mRNA vaccines and deliver them to a significant portion of the population.

sva_ 5y ago

I find it fairly amusing that people who believe in the "lableak-hypothesis" seem to usually also be in the camp of people who don't think the virus is too bad. If the virus really came from the lab, then presumably the Chinese know more about its (long term) effects than the rest of us. And looking at the fact, that they have this zero COVID policy, that should absolutely terrify anyone believing in the aforementioned hypothesis.

extheat 5y ago
> then presumably the Chinese know more about its (long term) effects than the rest of us Not necessarily true. The lab in question has been known to house coronavirus variants and done bat research. SARS-cov-2 isn't the first coronavirus out of China, remember SARS-cov-1. This is not in dispute. What was in dispute is if it leaked from there or not, or spread naturally outside human error. The proximity of the lab to the first cases, the measures taken there before the known spread of the virus and their attempt to destroy information about it is what leads to speculation. We may never know what actually happened outside anecdotal information without more information from China. Given the low likelihood of it being human engineered though, we should probably still be able to trace how it evolved in nature before spreading to humans. I don't see the correlation between this and the zero-COVID policy. Labs (ethically) work with pathogens all the time, they obviously don't inject viruses into humans without substantial cause.
- nomel 5y ago
  > Labs (ethically) work with pathogens all the time, they obviously don't inject viruses into humans without substantial cause. There's a long history that shows this is clearly not how lab leaks work.
_dain_ 5y ago
>If the virus really came from the lab, then presumably the Chinese know more about its (long term) effects than the rest of us. why would this be the case? any secret informational advantage they had at the start evaporated as soon as it got outside their borders. and today's virus is very different to the OG one they had in the lab before it was (presumably accidentally) leaked.

ComradePhil 5y ago

Maybe China knows more about the real long term effects of the virus because they have been studying it for a long time?

gpm 5y ago

Because it's been working, both from an economics and health perspective, and the locals seem to be in support of it, except for in Shanghai Here's a well known person in Shenzhen discussing it. Obviously be aware that any source in China can't speak too directly against the government, especially the central government. However I feel rather confident that this thread is a pretty good representation of her actual opinion having read a lot of her tweets on the topic. https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1514818345689776143 https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/151481834568977614...

catchclose8919 5y ago
"working" ? ...as in just pushing some deaths a few months in the future while being extremely inconvenient for everything and everyone and damaging to the global economy to an extent that might be more than the price of those lives
- gpm 5y ago
  > ..as in just pushing some deaths a few months in the future I don't get the impression that the people in charge, or the people not-in-charge in China, agree with this assessment. I.e. to quote from the thread > If you're telling Chinese "Omicron can't be beaten" it's a hard sell because the West has been telling us COVID can't be beaten for two years- and most provinces here already have beaten Omicron. ... > being extremely inconvenient for everything and everyone and damaging to the global economy As above, to again quote from the thread I linked > Most Chinese have experienced few significant restrictions in the last two years due to COVID-Zero, fast lockdowns, and mass testing done at under 100 cases. The first time we hear about something new being tried- straying from that, it's an unforgivable human rights catastrophy. > We've been basically living a normal life for two years while we watch the rest of the world meltdown in a furnace of exceptionalism, overconfidence, and science denial. It's going to very, very hard to convince Chinese that we're doing it wrong.
- bllguo 5y ago
  China's policies have kept the global economy afloat. They've been operating for the last two years almost at normal, in stark contrast to the US and company. And what a disgusting comment to make. Yes, how dare they stop producing goods for us to consume! Do you also discuss our obligations to the global economy like this? What is our comeuppance to be for our comically poor COVID policies reducing global demand?

throwaway73838 5y ago

Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

ccbccccbbcccbb 5y ago
And it corrupts not only itself, but also the society it commands in general. That's why you had to use a throwaway to post an obvious truth that is guaranteed to trigger karma decrementers.

dictateawayyyee 5y ago

Probably the same 3 reasons that seem to drive most authoritarian stay-the-course decisions: * Can't admit the original plan isn't working without appearing weak. * Operating on information corrupted by "compounding optimism" from every level of subordinates. * Repercussions for bad outcomes are unlikely.

munk-a 5y ago

I think at this point it's sheer stubbornness and to save face for the administration. I personally believe that Zero Covid was a great strategy right out the gate but it's no longer appropriate since this is clearly a global pandemic... but maybe Xi is afraid of looking wrong in retrospect.

beefman 5y ago

Enforcing silly, ineffective policies may serve the same purpose as publishing silly, unpersuasive propaganda, in the sense of this recent article: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30962199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30962199

rossdavidh 5y ago

The standard rumor is that the Chinese vaccines do not work as well, either at slowing down the spread or at reducing the severity of the effects, as western vaccines (whether Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, or Oxford/AstraZeneca). So, the feared effects of having most people get it are worse than here. Also, in the US, the CDC estimates that for every 10 people who get it who were confirmed/counted, there were 32 who were not counted. Since many states have had >20% of their population confirmed, that suggests that >85% of many US states have already had Covid-19, vaccinated or not. The ratio of "immunologically naive" in China is probably much higher. Not saying that makes it a sensible or even moral policy, just that's the most likely scenario as to why they are doing it.

jpgvm 5y ago
Yeah combination of several factors. Lower vaccine penetration, lower efficacy, lower hospital capacity per capita. COVID zero is the only moral option, they can't choose the death of millions.

catchclose8919 5y ago

Authoritarian regimes benefit from cultivating fear of death and disease in their people, it makes them more manageable... Similar to not allowing regular people to own guns etc. etc. Once you become willing to die, to let others die if needed, and to kill, for freedom or other purposes, you're no longer an "easy to manage sheep" ;)

memish 5y ago
I hadn't thought about it that way. We're seeing some resistance in Shanghai, but not enough to stop it. Even when killing pets and separating children from parents. Lack of grocery deliveries. It's scary.

gscott 5y ago

The CCP refuses to import western vaccines. The only option is lock-down because Chinese vaccines are targeted to the original covid-19 strain. There are media reports that China is close to their own mRNA vaccine...