3 ms·

It would also be very difficult to cover up the scale of sickness / death if COVID had run as as it has elsewhere.

LorenPechtel 5y ago
Exactly. Since the original event China has responded to Covid with aggressive ring-fencing. That can't be hidden--while there is room to fudge the numbers a little bit there could not have been a massive cover-up. Also, what we have been seeing for the last weeks should make it obvious China wasn't hiding it--because we are seeing how China responds when it is there. Unfortunately, China is stuck in zero-Covid mode when they aren't able to actually accomplish that against the infectiveness of Omicron. It's like the cartoon character flailing trying to grab something while they've already run off the cliff--except they're killing people in the process.
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  Omicron does seem to be more contagious, but given that other regions of China have successfully contained it, not so much more contagious that strict lockdown won't work. It appears that the Shanghai 'disaster' has been caused by the typical combination of complacency and attempts to balance with business as usual.
  - LorenPechtel 5y ago
    I do agree they have had some successes against it, but there comes a point where the logistics of doing so is swamped--and I think Shanghai is past that point by now. People are going hungry, they're going to slip out to get food.
lkbm 5y ago
I don't really trust China's numbers, but I'll agree that they've been much better than the US'. That said, while the Zero COVID policy was generally good and successful until recently, it no longer appears to be working, and efforts to continue it are increasingly harmful. If they're using the time to rapidly address their bafflingly low vaccination rates, then maybe it will prove worthwhile, but otherwise I don't see how it would be at this point. ("Baffling" because I understand why the US isn't more forceful in pushing the vaccine, but don't understand why China hasn't pushed their own rates to near 100%.)
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  Mandating vaccination and getting it to 100% would probably reveal their own vaccine isn’t as good as the mRNA ones at preventing hospitalization and death.

Exactly. Since the original event China has responded to Covid with aggressive ring-fencing. That can't be hidden--while there is room to fudge the numbers a little bit there could not have been a massive cover-up. Also, what we have been seeing for the last weeks should make it obvious China wasn't hiding it--because we are seeing how China responds when it is there. Unfortunately, China is stuck in zero-Covid mode when they aren't able to actually accomplish that against the infectiveness of Omicron. It's like the cartoon character flailing trying to grab something while they've already run off the cliff--except they're killing people in the process.

somewhereoutth 5y ago
Omicron does seem to be more contagious, but given that other regions of China have successfully contained it, not so much more contagious that strict lockdown won't work. It appears that the Shanghai 'disaster' has been caused by the typical combination of complacency and attempts to balance with business as usual.
- LorenPechtel 5y ago
  I do agree they have had some successes against it, but there comes a point where the logistics of doing so is swamped--and I think Shanghai is past that point by now. People are going hungry, they're going to slip out to get food.

lkbm 5y ago

I don't really trust China's numbers, but I'll agree that they've been much better than the US'. That said, while the Zero COVID policy was generally good and successful until recently, it no longer appears to be working, and efforts to continue it are increasingly harmful. If they're using the time to rapidly address their bafflingly low vaccination rates, then maybe it will prove worthwhile, but otherwise I don't see how it would be at this point. ("Baffling" because I understand why the US isn't more forceful in pushing the vaccine, but don't understand why China hasn't pushed their own rates to near 100%.)

ceejayoz 5y ago
Mandating vaccination and getting it to 100% would probably reveal their own vaccine isn’t as good as the mRNA ones at preventing hospitalization and death.