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I think that Putin will use a tactical nuke if he believes that the West doesn't have the resolve to respond in kind and will back down instead. The best defens

I think that Putin will use a tactical nuke if he believes that the West doesn't have the resolve to respond in kind and will back down instead. The best defense is demonstrating that resolve and unity so Putin believes that using a nuke will result in a proportionate response. The biggest risk is showing weakness, a lack of unity, and/or a belief that Putin wouldn't actually do it. In short, he will do it if he thinks he can get away with it, so we need to be extremely clear that he will not get away with it, and prepared to follow through if the worst happens.

kozak 4y ago
As a Ukrainian, I agree.
- zo1 4y ago
  As a non Ukrainian on the other side of the world, I disagree. I don't expect either America or Russia or Ukraine to be mature around the use of nukes at this point to do this "game". Hot heads, egos and emotion all around.
heneryville 4y ago
Agreed. Is anyone aware of any explicit statements by NATO about how they would respond to a tactical nuke? Has this been clearly stated? I've wondered what a proportionate response would be though. Sevastapol? From the NATO perspective it would make sense since they consider it occupied territory, but from the Russian perspective that would be an escalation. Perhaps within occupied eastern Ukraine? I doubt Ukrainians would see two nukes on their territory as an improvement. I've got no idea what a proportionate response would be.
- Someone 4y ago
  Ukraine isn’t in NATO and NATO is a defense alliance, so it wouldn’t automatically be a NATO issue if Russia used a tactical nuke there. Also (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm) “The fundamental purpose of NATO’s nuclear forces is for deterrence”. AFAIK, they don’t have any idea about responses to nuclear attacks on NATO, let alone on ones on non-NATO countries.
  - LarsAlereon 4y ago
    While not a NATO issue, in the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" Ukraine agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for a guarantee of UN Security Council assistance if they were threatened or attacked with nuclear weapons. Russia specifically signed this agreement promising not to threaten or attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

kozak 4y ago

As a Ukrainian, I agree.

zo1 4y ago
As a non Ukrainian on the other side of the world, I disagree. I don't expect either America or Russia or Ukraine to be mature around the use of nukes at this point to do this "game". Hot heads, egos and emotion all around.

heneryville 4y ago

Agreed. Is anyone aware of any explicit statements by NATO about how they would respond to a tactical nuke? Has this been clearly stated? I've wondered what a proportionate response would be though. Sevastapol? From the NATO perspective it would make sense since they consider it occupied territory, but from the Russian perspective that would be an escalation. Perhaps within occupied eastern Ukraine? I doubt Ukrainians would see two nukes on their territory as an improvement. I've got no idea what a proportionate response would be.

Someone 4y ago
Ukraine isn’t in NATO and NATO is a defense alliance, so it wouldn’t automatically be a NATO issue if Russia used a tactical nuke there. Also (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm) “The fundamental purpose of NATO’s nuclear forces is for deterrence”. AFAIK, they don’t have any idea about responses to nuclear attacks on NATO, let alone on ones on non-NATO countries.
- LarsAlereon 4y ago
  While not a NATO issue, in the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" Ukraine agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for a guarantee of UN Security Council assistance if they were threatened or attacked with nuclear weapons. Russia specifically signed this agreement promising not to threaten or attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons.