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At a gut level, having no classified info, but a civilians understanding of just how quickly the components of nuclear weapons degrade just sitting there, plus
by mikewarot 5y ago
At a gut level, having no classified info, but a civilians understanding of just how quickly the components of nuclear weapons degrade just sitting there, plus having seen the lack of maintenance endemic in the Russian military, it seems like this is the point at which the odds of a given Russian device actually working are at their lowest, and this is likely to be corrected, baring collapse of the nation.
It's tempting to just play the odds... but even so, the expected costs are still likely to be civilization ending.
Side thought - in Planet of the Apes, there is no way a 2000 year old nuke (The Alpha-Omega Bomb) could ever actually work. You need the resources of an advanced technological nation-state to keep them viable.
- SkyMarshal 5y ago> and this is likely to be corrected I think you mean, unlikely?
- mikewarot 5y agoI think now that the true state of corruption has come to light, crackdowns to correct this will happen, it will be harsh, but much effort will be put into reinvigorating the only effective deterrent left, nuclear weapons. There might even be a test pushing the limits of the test ban treaty to make sure they work, and everyone else knows it.