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I have no idea in what goes on in Putin's mind, and I put little credence in what he says, but if I look at what outcomes would benefit a resurgently-belligeren

I have no idea in what goes on in Putin's mind, and I put little credence in what he says, but if I look at what outcomes would benefit a resurgently-belligerent Russia, the one that most concerns me is that public opinion in the USA turns against NATO, from an impression that Europe is unwilling to make anything but a token stand here, on account of its economic dependency on Russia. (Aside: I wonder how much of the initial planning for this invasion was done under the assumption that Trump would win a second term?) In comparison to this, these other issues from the article seem to be secondary at most.

jacquesm 5y ago
Europe and NATO have drawn a lot closer over this than I though possible two months ago, and they are likely to continue to do for a while longer. A lot of the USA anti NATO sentiment is still a leftover from the Trump administration which was all but preaching isolationism (and which of course very much played into the hands of Putin who would love to reacquire not just Ukraine but also the Baltics and maybe even other former USSR states). I'm with you on the premise that they probably thought Trump would win a second term and I think if not for COVID that this would have all happened two years earlier. Public opinion in the United States with respect to NATO will be put to the test: for the first time in a long time it looks as though other nations in NATO may have to lean on it when in the past it was the USA that asked other countries to stand with it when it was attacked. What the outcome of that will be I do not know but I agree with you that it is of primary importance compared to the points raised in the article.
TMWNN 5y ago
>(Aside: I wonder how much of the initial planning for this invasion was done under the assumption that Trump would win a second term?) Got to love the mental acrobatics required to think that an invasion 13 months after Trump's departure from the White House must have been planned assuming a second Trump term (since, y'know, Trump was a Russian agent!!!!!!1!11!!!). Anything, everything, to avoid the more obvious conclusion that Russia was more afraid of the US/NATO with Trump as president than Biden.
- mannykannot 5y ago
  The tricky part of attempting sarcasm is to not end up in self-parody.

jacquesm 5y ago

Europe and NATO have drawn a lot closer over this than I though possible two months ago, and they are likely to continue to do for a while longer. A lot of the USA anti NATO sentiment is still a leftover from the Trump administration which was all but preaching isolationism (and which of course very much played into the hands of Putin who would love to reacquire not just Ukraine but also the Baltics and maybe even other former USSR states). I'm with you on the premise that they probably thought Trump would win a second term and I think if not for COVID that this would have all happened two years earlier. Public opinion in the United States with respect to NATO will be put to the test: for the first time in a long time it looks as though other nations in NATO may have to lean on it when in the past it was the USA that asked other countries to stand with it when it was attacked. What the outcome of that will be I do not know but I agree with you that it is of primary importance compared to the points raised in the article.

TMWNN 5y ago

>(Aside: I wonder how much of the initial planning for this invasion was done under the assumption that Trump would win a second term?) Got to love the mental acrobatics required to think that an invasion 13 months after Trump's departure from the White House must have been planned assuming a second Trump term (since, y'know, Trump was a Russian agent!!!!!!1!11!!!). Anything, everything, to avoid the more obvious conclusion that Russia was more afraid of the US/NATO with Trump as president than Biden.

mannykannot 5y ago
The tricky part of attempting sarcasm is to not end up in self-parody.