5 ms·

If they believed this, they wouldn't be selling at the current spot, sellers would all be putting their asks ~46% above spot (discounting time value of money),

by cwkoss 5y ago

If they believed this, they wouldn't be selling at the current spot, sellers would all be putting their asks ~46% above spot (discounting time value of money), and the market would move. That risk and upside is already priced in if you believe in market efficiency.

dhzhzjsbevs 5y ago
Asks above 5% or so current price usually get rejected by brokers.
daveed 5y ago
I don't believe in market efficiency. The market is large and has plenty of participants with different strategies. There are people selling at the going price, and there are people who are not. The trading price is a good reference price, but it's not the "right price" for everyone.
- pyuser583 5y ago
  But isn’t that the point of a market? Some people have goods they don’t want, other people want those goods. So they buy and sell. Every time a stock trades, there’s a single price. And that price is the price one person is willing to sell at, and another is willing to buy at. That’s how markets work.
- cwkoss 5y ago
  OK... I don't anyone would find your squishy confidence it's worth 50% more than current value any more credible than shorters who think it's worth 50% less. Both seem like fringe opinions without much foundation.
  - daveed 5y ago
    > I don't anyone would find your squishy confidence it's worth 50% more than current value any more credible than shorters who think it's worth 50% less It's not my opinion that TWTR is worth 50% more. Please don't understand it as such. It's an example of what someone long TWTR could be thinking when they simultaneously hold their position and want to reject the Musk takeover. I don't think it's worth continuing this thread anymore though. Have a great day.
- phkahler 5y ago
  >> The trading price is a good reference price, but it's not the "right price" for everyone. But it's the only price based on facts rather than opinion.
  - afiori 5y ago
    it is also the price of what is currently for sale, most shares of most companies are not actively for sale at their current price. Every market participant has a buy price and a sell price for one share influenced by their personal opinions and the state of the whole market; each at a different level and trading price is only calculated on actual trades. So all the shareholders that are unwilling to sell for any of the current offers do not influence it. Yet if you were to buy 100% of the shares then you would eventually have to climb up to their price.
    - phkahler 5y ago
      This is an interesting point I never really thought about. There is a distribution of buy prices and another distribution of sell prices. But if we plot these on the price axis there will be NO overlap because all shares in that region have been traded. I wonder if there's a way to sample these distributions to get the bigger picture.
travisjungroth 5y ago
> If they believed this, they wouldn't be selling at the current spot… They’re not. You’re mixing up the market as a whole and the owners of a majority of shares. The ask price is the lowest ask. If you buy a lot of something, you reach further into the order book and the price is going to be higher. If you want a 51% stake, then a lot higher.
- Breza 5y ago
  I have a dumb question. Most of my money is in index funds. Would there ever be a price where my shares would be sold?
  - blaser-waffle 5y ago
    Depends on the index fund and the rules / guidance they follow to balance. Many of them are passive, and only adjust once a quarter or once a year. Additionally, big spikes by one stock match drops in other stocks, aka they're not likely to make a big sale because one stock (twitter) had a good day.
- kangaroozach 5y ago
  This is a great explanation. Thanks for this.
- disiplus 5y ago
  just search into porsche failed takover of vw
newshorts 5y ago
Market trends to me are essentially a combination of mood swings and adversarial networks. My guess is Musk and a few key players are acting in a logical way and the rest of the price action is made up of emotional response. It’s anyones guess what the endgame here is, but one thing is for sure, Musk muddying the waters spells trap to me. I’m swimming the other way.

by cwkoss 5y ago

dhzhzjsbevs 5y ago

Asks above 5% or so current price usually get rejected by brokers.

daveed 5y ago

I don't believe in market efficiency. The market is large and has plenty of participants with different strategies. There are people selling at the going price, and there are people who are not. The trading price is a good reference price, but it's not the "right price" for everyone.

pyuser583 5y ago
But isn’t that the point of a market? Some people have goods they don’t want, other people want those goods. So they buy and sell. Every time a stock trades, there’s a single price. And that price is the price one person is willing to sell at, and another is willing to buy at. That’s how markets work.
cwkoss 5y ago
OK... I don't anyone would find your squishy confidence it's worth 50% more than current value any more credible than shorters who think it's worth 50% less. Both seem like fringe opinions without much foundation.
- daveed 5y ago
  > I don't anyone would find your squishy confidence it's worth 50% more than current value any more credible than shorters who think it's worth 50% less It's not my opinion that TWTR is worth 50% more. Please don't understand it as such. It's an example of what someone long TWTR could be thinking when they simultaneously hold their position and want to reject the Musk takeover. I don't think it's worth continuing this thread anymore though. Have a great day.
phkahler 5y ago
>> The trading price is a good reference price, but it's not the "right price" for everyone. But it's the only price based on facts rather than opinion.
- afiori 5y ago
  it is also the price of what is currently for sale, most shares of most companies are not actively for sale at their current price. Every market participant has a buy price and a sell price for one share influenced by their personal opinions and the state of the whole market; each at a different level and trading price is only calculated on actual trades. So all the shareholders that are unwilling to sell for any of the current offers do not influence it. Yet if you were to buy 100% of the shares then you would eventually have to climb up to their price.
  - phkahler 5y ago
    This is an interesting point I never really thought about. There is a distribution of buy prices and another distribution of sell prices. But if we plot these on the price axis there will be NO overlap because all shares in that region have been traded. I wonder if there's a way to sample these distributions to get the bigger picture.

travisjungroth 5y ago

> If they believed this, they wouldn't be selling at the current spot… They’re not. You’re mixing up the market as a whole and the owners of a majority of shares. The ask price is the lowest ask. If you buy a lot of something, you reach further into the order book and the price is going to be higher. If you want a 51% stake, then a lot higher.

Breza 5y ago
I have a dumb question. Most of my money is in index funds. Would there ever be a price where my shares would be sold?
- blaser-waffle 5y ago
  Depends on the index fund and the rules / guidance they follow to balance. Many of them are passive, and only adjust once a quarter or once a year. Additionally, big spikes by one stock match drops in other stocks, aka they're not likely to make a big sale because one stock (twitter) had a good day.
kangaroozach 5y ago
This is a great explanation. Thanks for this.
disiplus 5y ago
just search into porsche failed takover of vw

newshorts 5y ago

Market trends to me are essentially a combination of mood swings and adversarial networks. My guess is Musk and a few key players are acting in a logical way and the rest of the price action is made up of emotional response. It’s anyones guess what the endgame here is, but one thing is for sure, Musk muddying the waters spells trap to me. I’m swimming the other way.