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>I've had a hard time with this one as for weeks it was "Russia is not advancing, yada yada" Same here. I consider myself a big consumer of news from a variet

>I've had a hard time with this one as for weeks it was "Russia is not advancing, yada yada" Same here. I consider myself a big consumer of news from a variety of sources, and it's hard to get nearly any perspective except "Ukraine is dominating the battlefield". It's strange times, but this is the information war.

dash2 5y ago
Have you considered the possibility that if everything says one thing, that's because it is true? Maybe the Russians genuinely haven't done very well. I think there are too many Cartesians sitting in front of their screens going "perhaps an evil demon is trying to fool me about everything!"
- pueblito 5y ago
  I think there is a natural instinct to not believe things that are obviously propaganda, so when confronted by a party telling an obvious fantasy it’s pretty important to get the other party’s version, even if also nonsense and hope to suss out the truth.
  - notahacker 5y ago
    You don't have to look very hard for the other side's version though. Question is whether you think "Russia made a planned withdrawal from the north of the country after completing all the objectives of this military exercise which definitely isn't a war" is a more plausible description of the short-lived invasion of the north of the country than "Russia's advances have slowed down... Russia stopped advancing... Russia is retreating...". Both narratives agree that the facts on the ground are that Russian troops made large scale incursions into the north of Ukraine but aren't there any more. Yes, most Western media has sought to emphasize Russian casualties over Ukrainian ones and Ukrainian minor success over Russian ones, but it's not like Western media hasn't been free to predict Russia will have full control of Mariupol in a couple of days for over a month now and talk up the Russian convoy advancing on Kyiv which never made it there, or like the official Russian narrative isn't palpably absurd.
watwut 5y ago
The baseline expectation was Ukraine folding within 3-4 days. They were doing much better then expected, Russian original plan folded entirely.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > The baseline expectation was Ukraine folding within 3-4 days I think the West expected better but not lot better, it does seem that was about what Russia expected (possibly on bad political intelligence on how the population would respond to an invasion.)
  - watwut 5y ago
    To me, it seemed that west expected Ukraine to fold too. And the west also have circles that admire Russia quite a lot while Ukraine was not taken seriously until they started to be serious in battle field. You still have fawning over Russian this and that, culture, shock over their army being disorganized and corrupt or looting etc, despite them being like that always. While Ukraine was mostly non-existent.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > To me, it seemed that west expected Ukraine to fold too That was pretty explicitly stated by a number of officials, I just get the feeling that they thought the timeline would be longer than what the Russians were thinking, but probably in the 2-3 week window for the government, in any meaningful form, holding out, with the situation, at best being guerilla resistance after that.
- yucky 5y ago
  >Russian original plan folded entirely. It's funny, I don't recall seeing any pro-Russian sources stating that the goal was to capture all of Ukraine. In fact, they've publicly stated their goals since the beginning, and annexing all of Ukraine was never listed. Where did this idea in the media come from, since it didn't come from Russia..?
PoignardAzur 5y ago
I mean, you don't fire large numbers of intelligence agents and generals in the middle of a war because you're winning. Propaganda is one thing, but right now every report we have, incoming from Russian state media, points in the direction of "Russia is getting their ass kicked".

dash2 5y ago

Have you considered the possibility that if everything says one thing, that's because it is true? Maybe the Russians genuinely haven't done very well. I think there are too many Cartesians sitting in front of their screens going "perhaps an evil demon is trying to fool me about everything!"

pueblito 5y ago
I think there is a natural instinct to not believe things that are obviously propaganda, so when confronted by a party telling an obvious fantasy it’s pretty important to get the other party’s version, even if also nonsense and hope to suss out the truth.
- notahacker 5y ago
  You don't have to look very hard for the other side's version though. Question is whether you think "Russia made a planned withdrawal from the north of the country after completing all the objectives of this military exercise which definitely isn't a war" is a more plausible description of the short-lived invasion of the north of the country than "Russia's advances have slowed down... Russia stopped advancing... Russia is retreating...". Both narratives agree that the facts on the ground are that Russian troops made large scale incursions into the north of Ukraine but aren't there any more. Yes, most Western media has sought to emphasize Russian casualties over Ukrainian ones and Ukrainian minor success over Russian ones, but it's not like Western media hasn't been free to predict Russia will have full control of Mariupol in a couple of days for over a month now and talk up the Russian convoy advancing on Kyiv which never made it there, or like the official Russian narrative isn't palpably absurd.

watwut 5y ago

The baseline expectation was Ukraine folding within 3-4 days. They were doing much better then expected, Russian original plan folded entirely.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> The baseline expectation was Ukraine folding within 3-4 days I think the West expected better but not lot better, it does seem that was about what Russia expected (possibly on bad political intelligence on how the population would respond to an invasion.)
- watwut 5y ago
  To me, it seemed that west expected Ukraine to fold too. And the west also have circles that admire Russia quite a lot while Ukraine was not taken seriously until they started to be serious in battle field. You still have fawning over Russian this and that, culture, shock over their army being disorganized and corrupt or looting etc, despite them being like that always. While Ukraine was mostly non-existent.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > To me, it seemed that west expected Ukraine to fold too That was pretty explicitly stated by a number of officials, I just get the feeling that they thought the timeline would be longer than what the Russians were thinking, but probably in the 2-3 week window for the government, in any meaningful form, holding out, with the situation, at best being guerilla resistance after that.
yucky 5y ago
>Russian original plan folded entirely. It's funny, I don't recall seeing any pro-Russian sources stating that the goal was to capture all of Ukraine. In fact, they've publicly stated their goals since the beginning, and annexing all of Ukraine was never listed. Where did this idea in the media come from, since it didn't come from Russia..?

PoignardAzur 5y ago

I mean, you don't fire large numbers of intelligence agents and generals in the middle of a war because you're winning. Propaganda is one thing, but right now every report we have, incoming from Russian state media, points in the direction of "Russia is getting their ass kicked".