4 ms·

That's why I left the "at this time" caveat in there. Yeah, if the Russian military actually gets its shit together and manages an offensive that achieves that

by edrxty 5y ago

That's why I left the "at this time" caveat in there. Yeah, if the Russian military actually gets its shit together and manages an offensive that achieves that we need to reevaluate but...I don't think they have any chance of pulling that off. Their troops have spent weeks retreating from a meat grinder with nonexistent morale and will be asked to do it all again, "but it'll work this time". Further, would you take landlocked Ukraine and possible welfare state over a Sino-Russian axis? I think I would. This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy."

ramesh31 5y ago
>This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy." It already is really nasty. Ask the people of Bucha. I think my overall point here is that the war has already begun, and we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. History shows that evil men will stop at nothing short of a forced hand. And any talk of negotiation with Russia at this point sounds painfully like "peace in our time". There is no "choice" to avoid this conflict anymore. I wish to god that there was. But that choice was made 20 years ago when Ukraine was alienated from NATO. Our only option now is to accept the reality of our state of war with Russia, or to sit by and watch them win.
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  >we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Do you think that will lead to less bloodshed? Negotiation is the way out.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > Negotiation is the way out. Negotiation isn't a way out against an aggressor who isn't convinced that you can and will use force otherwise. What you have then is at best surrender to their current demands and hope they don't decide to see what they can take you for next after that. This isn’t novel territory.
  - ramesh31 5y ago
    >So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Boots are already on the ground. Ukrainians childrens boots. They are already fighting the largest land battle in european history since World War II at this very moment. Russia has already taken greater losses than Germany did with the invasion of Poland. Ukraine's fate is our own. And the longer we pretend this is just another foreign conflict, the more danger we will be in.
  - jcranmer 5y ago
    > Negotiation is the way out. Okay. How do you get the two sides to come to an agreement? Right now, one side wants the other side to not exist [1], the other side appears to be willing to concede status quo ante bellum. [1] To be more precise, they have given several conflicting answers as to what they actually want. I personally find this answer to be the most likely to be true, especially given that the other side is willing to agree to the demands implied by several of the other answers, and yet this side is unwilling to accept such agreement.
  - lostlogin 5y ago
    > Negotiation is the way out. How? Putin isn’t going to leave if you ask nicely, and hasn’t left with increased sanctions or when bloodied. What is the negotiation? Give him half Ukraine?
samastur 5y ago
I wouldn't because I don't believe that's the choice I have. You can sacrifice Ukranians, accept landlocked Ukraine, hope it will stop there and you are still unlikely to prevent Sino-Russian axis that has been building for years now and clearly has a more matching world view than other current combinations. This was started in 2014 and thinking it will go away if only Putin gets a big enough chunk of Ukraine is, I think, wishful thinking.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > This was started in 2014 and thinking it will go away if only Putin gets a big enough chunk of Ukraine is, I think, wishful thinking. I mean, it worked with Hitler and Czechoslovakia, right? “Peace for our time” and all that...
dragonwriter 5y ago
> Further, would you take landlocked Ukraine and possible welfare state over a Sino-Russian axis? Those are not alternatives, they are a package deal; if you accept the first, the second comes along free for the ride. The Sino-Russian axis exists now, the only way to disrupt it is defeating one of the poles in a way which results in a realignment (and, more likely, that weakens rather than fully disrupts it.) Permitting it victory just makes it stronger.
fallingknife 5y ago
Sino-Russian axis is here, so get used to it. It wasn't started by this war, and it won't be stopped by stopping it. Russia and China have larger aligning geopolitical interests and that is the driver.

by edrxty 5y ago

ramesh31 5y ago

>This isn't "let's hear both sides" it's "this will get really nasty if we pull the old so-i-started-blasting strategy." It already is really nasty. Ask the people of Bucha. I think my overall point here is that the war has already begun, and we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. History shows that evil men will stop at nothing short of a forced hand. And any talk of negotiation with Russia at this point sounds painfully like "peace in our time". There is no "choice" to avoid this conflict anymore. I wish to god that there was. But that choice was made 20 years ago when Ukraine was alienated from NATO. Our only option now is to accept the reality of our state of war with Russia, or to sit by and watch them win.

itsoktocry 5y ago
>we in the West are sticking our heads in the sand and praying for it to go away. So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Do you think that will lead to less bloodshed? Negotiation is the way out.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Negotiation is the way out. Negotiation isn't a way out against an aggressor who isn't convinced that you can and will use force otherwise. What you have then is at best surrender to their current demands and hope they don't decide to see what they can take you for next after that. This isn’t novel territory.
- ramesh31 5y ago
  >So you want boots on the ground? Whose? Yours? Your children's? Boots are already on the ground. Ukrainians childrens boots. They are already fighting the largest land battle in european history since World War II at this very moment. Russia has already taken greater losses than Germany did with the invasion of Poland. Ukraine's fate is our own. And the longer we pretend this is just another foreign conflict, the more danger we will be in.
- jcranmer 5y ago
  > Negotiation is the way out. Okay. How do you get the two sides to come to an agreement? Right now, one side wants the other side to not exist [1], the other side appears to be willing to concede status quo ante bellum. [1] To be more precise, they have given several conflicting answers as to what they actually want. I personally find this answer to be the most likely to be true, especially given that the other side is willing to agree to the demands implied by several of the other answers, and yet this side is unwilling to accept such agreement.
- lostlogin 5y ago
  > Negotiation is the way out. How? Putin isn’t going to leave if you ask nicely, and hasn’t left with increased sanctions or when bloodied. What is the negotiation? Give him half Ukraine?

samastur 5y ago

I wouldn't because I don't believe that's the choice I have. You can sacrifice Ukranians, accept landlocked Ukraine, hope it will stop there and you are still unlikely to prevent Sino-Russian axis that has been building for years now and clearly has a more matching world view than other current combinations. This was started in 2014 and thinking it will go away if only Putin gets a big enough chunk of Ukraine is, I think, wishful thinking.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> This was started in 2014 and thinking it will go away if only Putin gets a big enough chunk of Ukraine is, I think, wishful thinking. I mean, it worked with Hitler and Czechoslovakia, right? “Peace for our time” and all that...

dragonwriter 5y ago

> Further, would you take landlocked Ukraine and possible welfare state over a Sino-Russian axis? Those are not alternatives, they are a package deal; if you accept the first, the second comes along free for the ride. The Sino-Russian axis exists now, the only way to disrupt it is defeating one of the poles in a way which results in a realignment (and, more likely, that weakens rather than fully disrupts it.) Permitting it victory just makes it stronger.

fallingknife 5y ago

Sino-Russian axis is here, so get used to it. It wasn't started by this war, and it won't be stopped by stopping it. Russia and China have larger aligning geopolitical interests and that is the driver.