4 ms·

TWTR was trading at 33 before Elon announced his stake, and he offered 54. That's a 60% premium.

AustinDev 5y ago
The board kind of has to put this to a shareholder vote to limit their liability. If they don't, they'll be sued by shareholders very quickly.
- trident5000 5y ago
  Musk himself will probably sue them immediately as the second largest holder behind Vanguard.
  - Acrobatic_Road 5y ago
    I would never stop laughing if this happened.
paxys 5y ago
What happened last week is irrelevant. If I can sell my shares on the market today for $46 and Elon is offering $54, that's a ~17% premium. It's better than nothing but not nearly enough to convince >50% of shareholders to vote in his favor. Several major ones have already said no to the offer (https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-prince-alwaleed-bin-talal-rejects-elon-musks-twitter-takeover-bid-tweet-2022-04-14/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-prince-alwaleed-bin...). If it was a serious offer the market would have already valued TWTR at ~$54, but it has actually gone down after Musk announced his bid.
- cdash 5y ago
  You can't sell your shares on the market today for $46 as an intuitional investor though, the price will tank.
- tick_tock_tick 5y ago
  It's gone down since he's made it clear he will liquidate his stake if the deal doesn't go through.
  - paxys 5y ago
    So then the market expects it to happen, which is my point. As it stands it is unlikely that the deal will go through.
    - sebzim4500 5y ago
      Sounds like the market thinks it's about 50/50 (given the current price is half way between the previous price and the offered price).
  - aurelius12 5y ago
    Twitter is down a whopping 0.33% today.
    - water8 5y ago
      down 2% 1 hour later
- gpm 5y ago
  > What happened last week is irrelevant Information about a potential takeover bid is absolutely relevant, and it's generally reasonable to calculate the premium from before that news first existed. What happened last week was information about a potential takeover bid.
  - lupire 5y ago
    What happened last week was priced in 6 days ago.
- skinnymuch 5y ago
  It is not at all irrelevant. I would be surprised if any reputable financial source would think of this as a 17% premium and not include last week. gpm said the rest already as a reply. As to the Saudi prince. Regardless of the topic. In any situation, it is hard to take the prince at face value knowing he pushed hard to successfully give the Kushners and co $2B[0]. If there’s more at play for the prince than short or medium term money, what he says is irrelevant then. [0]: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/04/11/hes-cashing-kushner-firm-gets-2-billion-saudi-fund-run-crown-prince https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/04/11/hes-cashing-kus... or https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jared-kushner-scores-2-billion-investment-from-saudi-arabia-report-11649700763 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jared-kushner-scores-2-bil...

The board kind of has to put this to a shareholder vote to limit their liability. If they don't, they'll be sued by shareholders very quickly.

trident5000 5y ago
Musk himself will probably sue them immediately as the second largest holder behind Vanguard.
- Acrobatic_Road 5y ago
  I would never stop laughing if this happened.

paxys 5y ago

What happened last week is irrelevant. If I can sell my shares on the market today for $46 and Elon is offering $54, that's a ~17% premium. It's better than nothing but not nearly enough to convince >50% of shareholders to vote in his favor. Several major ones have already said no to the offer (https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-prince-alwaleed-bin-talal-rejects-elon-musks-twitter-takeover-bid-tweet-2022-04-14/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-prince-alwaleed-bin...). If it was a serious offer the market would have already valued TWTR at ~$54, but it has actually gone down after Musk announced his bid.

cdash 5y ago
You can't sell your shares on the market today for $46 as an intuitional investor though, the price will tank.
tick_tock_tick 5y ago
It's gone down since he's made it clear he will liquidate his stake if the deal doesn't go through.
- paxys 5y ago
  So then the market expects it to happen, which is my point. As it stands it is unlikely that the deal will go through.
  - sebzim4500 5y ago
    Sounds like the market thinks it's about 50/50 (given the current price is half way between the previous price and the offered price).
- aurelius12 5y ago
  Twitter is down a whopping 0.33% today.
  - water8 5y ago
    down 2% 1 hour later
gpm 5y ago
> What happened last week is irrelevant Information about a potential takeover bid is absolutely relevant, and it's generally reasonable to calculate the premium from before that news first existed. What happened last week was information about a potential takeover bid.
- lupire 5y ago
  What happened last week was priced in 6 days ago.
skinnymuch 5y ago
It is not at all irrelevant. I would be surprised if any reputable financial source would think of this as a 17% premium and not include last week. gpm said the rest already as a reply. As to the Saudi prince. Regardless of the topic. In any situation, it is hard to take the prince at face value knowing he pushed hard to successfully give the Kushners and co $2B[0]. If there’s more at play for the prince than short or medium term money, what he says is irrelevant then. [0]: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/04/11/hes-cashing-kushner-firm-gets-2-billion-saudi-fund-run-crown-prince https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/04/11/hes-cashing-kus... or https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jared-kushner-scores-2-billion-investment-from-saudi-arabia-report-11649700763 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jared-kushner-scores-2-bil...