4 ms·

As sibling comment says, he's higher than Duda + Radjabov in live ratings now. It's just not obvious to me that any of your statements about the other players

by tibbar 5y ago

As sibling comment says, he's higher than Duda + Radjabov in live ratings now. It's just not obvious to me that any of your statements about the other players being so much stronger than Hikaru are true. It's really hard to objectively estimate his classical playing strength because he just didn't play for two years and the rating has been volatile since he started playing again, but (for example) he played 4 classical games with Levon Aronian between the two legs with a +1 -1 =2 score, and +2 -0 =0 in rapid tiebreaks. Aronian is a roughly 2780 player, world #5, likely to be the strongest player who missed candidates. Hikaru also scored 50% in classical Grand Prix matches with Wesley So and Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, two other strong top-10 players.

joshuamorton 5y ago
My argument would be something like: Aronian was the strongest player Hikaru played (and was the highest rated player in both Grand Prix events Hikaru participated in). Depending on how you determine things, either 3 or 5 of the participants are rated higher than Aronian is/was in classical, and Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana, because they're not 150 points worse than him in Rapid (well except Alireza but that's probably inaccurate). If the best Hikaru can do is draw against So and Aronian, that's not going to cut it in the candidates. Maybe he can o better than that, but there's nothing we've seen that suggests that.
- oldstrangers 5y ago
  "Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana," Remember way back in 2021 when Hikaru won the St. Louis Rapid and Blitz? Going undefeated in the entire event ahead of Caruana, Rapport, So, Mamedyarov... Furthermore, Hikaru has always outplayed Nepo. His lifetime record against him including rapid/blitz is 19 to 12, with 29 draws. Hikaru also drastically out performs Duda: 26 to 9, with 17 draws.
- tibbar 5y ago
  So, obviously Hikaru is rated lower than most of the players in the candidates, even with the recent surge. It's equally obvious that he's a much stronger player than he was going into his semi-retirement a few years ago. The question is, given his recent 2800+ tournament performance ratings and dominance in all time controls that he's played over the last year, is his actual playing strength back at the 2800+, world #2 level it used to be? It's entirely plausible based on what we see, and lots of chess people think that he, indeed, as strong of a player as he looks. That would make him competitive in the candidates (though, that is a total crapshoot, and no one is a "favorite" to win.)

by tibbar 5y ago

joshuamorton 5y ago

My argument would be something like: Aronian was the strongest player Hikaru played (and was the highest rated player in both Grand Prix events Hikaru participated in). Depending on how you determine things, either 3 or 5 of the participants are rated higher than Aronian is/was in classical, and Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana, because they're not 150 points worse than him in Rapid (well except Alireza but that's probably inaccurate). If the best Hikaru can do is draw against So and Aronian, that's not going to cut it in the candidates. Maybe he can o better than that, but there's nothing we've seen that suggests that.

oldstrangers 5y ago
"Naka won't be able to rely on winning the rapid against any of Ian, Duda, Alireza, Ding, Rapport or even Caruana," Remember way back in 2021 when Hikaru won the St. Louis Rapid and Blitz? Going undefeated in the entire event ahead of Caruana, Rapport, So, Mamedyarov... Furthermore, Hikaru has always outplayed Nepo. His lifetime record against him including rapid/blitz is 19 to 12, with 29 draws. Hikaru also drastically out performs Duda: 26 to 9, with 17 draws.
tibbar 5y ago
So, obviously Hikaru is rated lower than most of the players in the candidates, even with the recent surge. It's equally obvious that he's a much stronger player than he was going into his semi-retirement a few years ago. The question is, given his recent 2800+ tournament performance ratings and dominance in all time controls that he's played over the last year, is his actual playing strength back at the 2800+, world #2 level it used to be? It's entirely plausible based on what we see, and lots of chess people think that he, indeed, as strong of a player as he looks. That would make him competitive in the candidates (though, that is a total crapshoot, and no one is a "favorite" to win.)