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Some people said things like that about Russia/Ukraine a few months ago.

• ericmay 5y ago
  Not me. I was making bets about when it would happen. I thought it would be earlier in February actually. Every day Russia waited was warmer temperatures and more missiles and supplies funneled into Ukraine. But an invasion of Taiwan doesn’t really make any sense. Likening it to Ukraine is poor reasoning because you assume the CCP has the same motivations as Putin, or that there are any similarities in logistics or war tactics. The U.S. would defend Taiwan, and an invasion would require months of buildup and would be an incredibly complex combined arms and logistical challenge. The Chinese have little to no experience in executing any sort of operation like this under real world scenarios. Even if they were to succeed somehow the cost would be unbearable. No. It makes much more sense and fits better with Chinese strategy to play the long game and convince Taiwan itself to reunite.
  • dsq 5y ago
    It would (in CCP thinking) remove a major US ally from proxomity to PRC homeland, give PRC greater territorial and economic zones in the sea, give freedom of action to the PRC navy, and of course vindicate CCP legitimacy. Only problem is - wars are easy to start but hard to control or stop, and never go the way you wanted them to.
    • ericmay 5y ago
      Oh yea 100% it would definitely be a great move for China. That’s why there is so much saber rattling. But if you just wait you are so close to Taiwan that you can probably just win it over eventually via its own political system. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but Taiwan public opinion was much more lukewarm to China before they invaded Hong Kong. A hasty attack (within 10-15 years and no significant global alliance changes) could be catastrophically bad.