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I really doubt that would be as much of a deterrant as they think it is. If TSMC is destroyed, China wouldn't get it, but the west wouldn't have access either.

I really doubt that would be as much of a deterrant as they think it is. If TSMC is destroyed, China wouldn't get it, but the west wouldn't have access either. The Chinese are very confident in their ability to develop any technology eventually, to them it is just a matter of time and money.

phyalow 5y ago
"but the west wouldn't have access either." That simply isnt true, TSMC are building manufacturing capacity in Arizona/Texas at an impressive clip, it has been pitched as capacity expansion, but there is obviously a strategic fall back element to the expansion gained by having the processes, chip lines and IP associated with a duplicated offshore location (which the US would be ideal to safely house). https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-tsmc-looks-double-down-us-chip-factories-talks-europe-falter-2021-05-14/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-tsmc-looks-doub...
throwaway6734 5y ago
China has been trying to fabricate chips for decades and it's been one failure after the next. Pretty good read about some recent fraud in the area: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-scammers?s=r https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-sc...
- FooBarWidget 5y ago
  "Failure after next" needs to be quantified. They haven't succeeded so far in sub-7nm, but they're now able to manufacture 24nm which is where the majority of the market lies. Mind you: many countries can't even manufacture any chip on its own. 14nm and ~10nm are around the corner: they already have the ability but the supply chain there is not sufficiently dewesternized, making it prone to sanctions, and the market demand for those nodes are not big enough so they haven't scaled up those nodes yet. That there are fraud causes and that progress on sub-7 nm has been very slow so far is true. But that doesn't mean that long-term trends are negative. In fact, all the sanctions have created an economic opportunity that they otherwise won't have: they now have a large domestic market for future domestic sub-7 nm chips, a market that they otherwise wouldn't have because it was too easy to just buy foreign chips or to contract foreign fabs.
  - throwaway6734 5y ago
    Good points! Where have you seen the ability to produce 10nm? I thought that was currently beyond capability.
    - FooBarWidget 5y ago
      SMIC's N+1 process is 7nm-ish. They've had this for a while. It lowers power usage as one would expect when going from their 14nm process to 7nm, but performance did not improve as much, hence why some call it comparable to 10nm.
radu_floricica 5y ago
If they're just as confident after their covid vaccines, it just means they're bad at updating.
nosianu 5y ago
The machines for chip making are built in the Europe (ASML first of all, Netherlands), the US and Japan mostly. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/asml-the-biggest-company-in-europe-youve-probably-never-heard-of.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/asml-the-biggest-company-in-... https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-companies-that-manufacture-the-machines-that-companies-like-TSMC-use-to-build-chips-for-companies-like-AMD https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-companies-that-manufactu...
jollybean 5y ago
They're not building jet engines yet either. The higher up the value chain, the more difficult things are. And that pole keeps getting higher every year. So it's not a matter of 'catching up' - it's 'catching up and then getting ahead and staying ahead'. And, that pathway is quite some time. I'm not sure the factories themselves are hugely relevant, because with all of he talent, supply chain and operational issues and know-how scrambled up, it'd take them forever to get it back up. Those fabs would be a bit of a write off no matter what.

phyalow 5y ago

"but the west wouldn't have access either." That simply isnt true, TSMC are building manufacturing capacity in Arizona/Texas at an impressive clip, it has been pitched as capacity expansion, but there is obviously a strategic fall back element to the expansion gained by having the processes, chip lines and IP associated with a duplicated offshore location (which the US would be ideal to safely house). https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-tsmc-looks-double-down-us-chip-factories-talks-europe-falter-2021-05-14/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-tsmc-looks-doub...

throwaway6734 5y ago

China has been trying to fabricate chips for decades and it's been one failure after the next. Pretty good read about some recent fraud in the area: https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-scammers?s=r https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/billion-dollar-heist-how-sc...

FooBarWidget 5y ago
"Failure after next" needs to be quantified. They haven't succeeded so far in sub-7nm, but they're now able to manufacture 24nm which is where the majority of the market lies. Mind you: many countries can't even manufacture any chip on its own. 14nm and ~10nm are around the corner: they already have the ability but the supply chain there is not sufficiently dewesternized, making it prone to sanctions, and the market demand for those nodes are not big enough so they haven't scaled up those nodes yet. That there are fraud causes and that progress on sub-7 nm has been very slow so far is true. But that doesn't mean that long-term trends are negative. In fact, all the sanctions have created an economic opportunity that they otherwise won't have: they now have a large domestic market for future domestic sub-7 nm chips, a market that they otherwise wouldn't have because it was too easy to just buy foreign chips or to contract foreign fabs.
- throwaway6734 5y ago
  Good points! Where have you seen the ability to produce 10nm? I thought that was currently beyond capability.
  - FooBarWidget 5y ago
    SMIC's N+1 process is 7nm-ish. They've had this for a while. It lowers power usage as one would expect when going from their 14nm process to 7nm, but performance did not improve as much, hence why some call it comparable to 10nm.

radu_floricica 5y ago

If they're just as confident after their covid vaccines, it just means they're bad at updating.

nosianu 5y ago

The machines for chip making are built in the Europe (ASML first of all, Netherlands), the US and Japan mostly. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/asml-the-biggest-company-in-europe-youve-probably-never-heard-of.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/asml-the-biggest-company-in-... https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-companies-that-manufacture-the-machines-that-companies-like-TSMC-use-to-build-chips-for-companies-like-AMD https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-companies-that-manufactu...

jollybean 5y ago

They're not building jet engines yet either. The higher up the value chain, the more difficult things are. And that pole keeps getting higher every year. So it's not a matter of 'catching up' - it's 'catching up and then getting ahead and staying ahead'. And, that pathway is quite some time. I'm not sure the factories themselves are hugely relevant, because with all of he talent, supply chain and operational issues and know-how scrambled up, it'd take them forever to get it back up. Those fabs would be a bit of a write off no matter what.