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This may not even be necessary. Whether TSMC and high tech manufacturing would survive a military invasion anyway is an open question. It's certainly doubtful i
by Udo 4y ago
This may not even be necessary. Whether TSMC and high tech manufacturing would survive a military invasion anyway is an open question. It's certainly doubtful if there is going to be heavy fighting for a protracted amount of time. Analysts seem to project a swift and sweeping annexation that could happen within hours and would be confined to military targets, but Ukraine's example has put population resistance back on the map as a potentially deciding factor.
The PRC's strategists have certainly been doing those same calculations for many years now. If there is an invasion, it would not be to capture TSMC "alive". That may be a bonus objective, but it can't be the main objective. The West would also most certainly put an embargo on electronics manufactured there after an invasion, so we're at best talking about a bonus objective that may help China's internal market.
On the cost side, China would not be able to continue trading with the West in any meaningful sense. The Earth's economic sphere would split in two. That's a huge price to pay for a largely symbolic imperial gain.
- tonyedgecombe 4y ago>That's a huge price to pay for a largely symbolic imperial gain. The recent conflict in Ukraine shows that dictatorships are willing to make irrational decisions.
- maratc 4y agoThe recents conflicts in Afghanistan show that many different kinds of governing systems are willing to make irrational decisions. Except monarchies maybe? No monarchy has tried to invade Afghanistan recently.
- Udo 4y agoWhile that's true, we're talking about this in the context of rational deterrence. It's is a valid point, but it's another notch on the "this is probably not necessary" side.