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>If the mainland decided on a military take-over of Taiwan they would not care about this. This conflicts with your subsequent statement - >If anything the pu

>If the mainland decided on a military take-over of Taiwan they would not care about this. This conflicts with your subsequent statement - >If anything the push by the mainland to develop its own semi industry is aimed at avoiding 'suffering' from sanctions and loss of Taiwan's production capability. The reason they are developing their own semiconductor industry is they are acutely aware that Taiwan's production expertise and capabilities are currently irreplaceable. And until they have caught up, it is a massive risk invading Taiwan and destroying TSMC in the process. So the deterrence effect is obviously there, whether how long that is effective for is another matter.

mytailorisrich 5y ago
No contradiction. The mainland knows it needs to develop its own semi industry. It's already having issues because of US sanctions, and would likely face even more sanctions if it decided to invade Taiwan, not to mention the risk of destruction of Taiwan's facility, indeed. On the other hand, as things stand destroying TSMC would hurt everyone, as you say. China is working on reducing that hurt because it is obviously sensible to do so, the US are also working on reducing that hurt for the same reason. But the historical and political forces are such that I don't think China would be deterred because Taiwan planned to blow up TSMC facilities... So, IMHO this is just the US trying to make sure that China would not get TSMC fabs as that would be the worst outcome for them, not a deterrent.
- signatoremo 5y ago
  It would be a deterrent to a China’s invasion as long as China is still lacking in semiconductor manufacturing. It allows Taiwan and the West to buy time. 10 years? 20 years? Who knows what will happen during that time — Xi may have died, the West will have diversified the semiconductor industry, a new generation of Chinese can grow past nationalism and recognize Taiwanese people’s will for independence.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    The issue of Chinese re-unification goes beyond Xi and "nationalism" used pejoratively... Especially, China has a long history of struggling to achieve and hold national unity that dates back millenia before the CPC. This is mixed with the last two centuries of being the victim of foreign aggression. It's not that the people in Taiwan overwhelmingly want 'independence', by that I mean that they oppose re-unification, is that they do not want the communists (which is the whole reason of the current situation in the first place), and the 'independence' camp is suiting US interests. Ultimately I believe that the mainland is willing to sustain a level of economic pain to get hold of Taiwan but this would be calculated based on domestic politics, not TSMC's fabs.
    - starfallg 5y ago
      I don't see how any of the points you raised makes the destruction of TSMC facilities less of an deterrent. A deterrent doesn't have to be 100% effective, it just needs to have a deterrent effect. TSMC itself also doesn't want to be subjugated by a PRC invasion. It's not just a play to protect US interests. Not sure what the motive is to portray it like that.

mytailorisrich 5y ago

No contradiction. The mainland knows it needs to develop its own semi industry. It's already having issues because of US sanctions, and would likely face even more sanctions if it decided to invade Taiwan, not to mention the risk of destruction of Taiwan's facility, indeed. On the other hand, as things stand destroying TSMC would hurt everyone, as you say. China is working on reducing that hurt because it is obviously sensible to do so, the US are also working on reducing that hurt for the same reason. But the historical and political forces are such that I don't think China would be deterred because Taiwan planned to blow up TSMC facilities... So, IMHO this is just the US trying to make sure that China would not get TSMC fabs as that would be the worst outcome for them, not a deterrent.

signatoremo 5y ago
It would be a deterrent to a China’s invasion as long as China is still lacking in semiconductor manufacturing. It allows Taiwan and the West to buy time. 10 years? 20 years? Who knows what will happen during that time — Xi may have died, the West will have diversified the semiconductor industry, a new generation of Chinese can grow past nationalism and recognize Taiwanese people’s will for independence.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  The issue of Chinese re-unification goes beyond Xi and "nationalism" used pejoratively... Especially, China has a long history of struggling to achieve and hold national unity that dates back millenia before the CPC. This is mixed with the last two centuries of being the victim of foreign aggression. It's not that the people in Taiwan overwhelmingly want 'independence', by that I mean that they oppose re-unification, is that they do not want the communists (which is the whole reason of the current situation in the first place), and the 'independence' camp is suiting US interests. Ultimately I believe that the mainland is willing to sustain a level of economic pain to get hold of Taiwan but this would be calculated based on domestic politics, not TSMC's fabs.
  - starfallg 5y ago
    I don't see how any of the points you raised makes the destruction of TSMC facilities less of an deterrent. A deterrent doesn't have to be 100% effective, it just needs to have a deterrent effect. TSMC itself also doesn't want to be subjugated by a PRC invasion. It's not just a play to protect US interests. Not sure what the motive is to portray it like that.