I'm not sure what you mean by saying the oil market had already priced in the invasion. Certainly there was a huge jump in oil prices when the invasion started

I'm not sure what you mean by saying the oil market had already priced in the invasion. Certainly there was a huge jump in oil prices when the invasion started (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil). I think it's at this point clear that stimulus has had something to do with inflation, but also undeniable that the Russian invasion helped raise oil prices