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Any mental model that assigns zero weight to the probability of being wrong is a wrong mental model. That said, biases arising from endogeneity might have nega

by _v7gu 4y ago

Any mental model that assigns zero weight to the probability of being wrong is a wrong mental model. That said, biases arising from endogeneity might have negative effects too. You can't conclude a parameter should have a different/zero sign just because of endogeneity, you have to go fix your model, and re-estimate the parameters.

tomrod 4y ago
> Any mental model that assigns zero weight to the probability of being wrong is a wrong mental model. This is true when there is uncertainty. It also doesn't connect to "I only hire people who think like I do", which is the context of my response, so I don't follow your point. Agreed on your other point that you need to instrument endogeneity. Another requirement is plausibility. Hookworm presence in Greenland should be uncorrelated to solar sunspots.