14 ms·
Actuarial Life Table
- klelatti 4y agoIf anyone is interested in more life tables the Society of Actuaries has thousands to download and there is some simple code to read them in Python here: https://www.joveactuarial.com/blog/mortality-tables/ https://www.joveactuarial.com/blog/mortality-tables/
- chomp 4y agoI graphed the difference in years amongst men and women using good ol' fashioned awk and free graphing software: https://imgur.com/a/3b1KrD7 https://imgur.com/a/3b1KrD7 It looks like at around age 18 - 30ish, the numbers start catching up, with a sharper reduction in expectancy differences happening around age 35. From the PRB: "Men are three times as likely as women to die from injuries (unintentional injuries, suicide, or homicide), and progress against those causes of death has been much slower than against other causes in the last 50 years. There is also evidence that men at all ages are less likely to seek medical care and less likely to comply with medical instructions than are women."
- spookylettuce 4y agoI'm very interested in this workflow of data -> awk -> graph. What graphing software did you use?
- chomp 4y agoWell, I spat out the list of numbers and just googled "graph values" and took the first result, but if you love to stay in command line, you can do something like so... # awk '{print $7-$4}' chart | gnuplot -p -e 'plot "/dev/stdin"' Where `chart` is just what I copy and pasted from the site :)
- aidenn0 4y agoI used a data -> awk -> graph with the NYT covid numbers, which had both state and county granularity. I used gnuplot to graph.
- readthenotes1 4y ago"There is also evidence that men at all ages are less likely to seek medical care and less likely to comply with medical instructions than are women." Especially on the 0-1 year old group. Toxic masculinity starts in utero.
- 21723 4y agoToxic masculinity starts in utero. I was going to reply but then decided, no, nevermind.
- kristopolous 4y agoThe internet can be extremely hostile to empirical evidence. I actually just expect to be brigaded whenever I reference things like The Lancet. People are aggressively anti-intellectual. People don't logon to learn, they're here to be tribal and do social cues
- ikr678 4y agoHoping for a truly open minded forum, like some kind of nirvana
- yellowstuff 4y agoMost people will miss this reference and the rest will feel old. You owe us all apologies.
- pards 4y agoNevermind was the better album, for sure.
- chomp 4y agoMen's health is complicated. Yes, there's some "strength in silence" confounding issues in doctor training and patients, but if you pry back the social media buzzwords, you'll see that there's complex economic and societal forces that push men's health downward. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1121551/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1121551/ Also, I think you are trolling, but I'll bite. The expectancy in the 0-1 age group takes into account all life events that will affect the child over time, including what I had quoted. If you look at the probabilities in early life for both sexes, they have similar death probabilities.
- Spivakov 4y agoThe death probability has a turning point from decreasing to increasing around age 10 for both male and female. Wonder why this specific age.
- rexreed 4y agoThe overlapping decreasing line curves of mortality due to infant / child mortality cases and increasing line curves of mortality due to external factors, accidents, and illnesses. The lines cross around 10 yrs old.
- brimble 4y agoProbably not the only factor, but 10's about the age when suicide becomes more than a very, very remote possibility. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m6128qsf.gif https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m6128qsf.g...
- klelatti 4y agoU.K. data but accidents and cancer exceed intentional self harm for teenagers. https://stateofchildhealth.rcpch.ac.uk/evidence/mortality/adolescent-mortality/ https://stateofchildhealth.rcpch.ac.uk/evidence/mortality/ad...
- bombcar 4y agoI wonder if it's accidental behavior because of not knowing better (children crawling into water or streets etc) combined with accidental behavior because of being teenagers crossing over.
- bachmeier 4y agoWhile that's true, these are small death probabilities. The age 10 death probability is less than 1 in 10,000. It doesn't even reach 1 in 1000 until age 20 for men and age 34 for women. According to this data source[1] there are about 4 million 10-year olds. That works out to less than 400 deaths for the entire US in a year. What I find interesting is the divergence at age 10 by gender. By the late teens, boys are about 2.5 times more likely to die, in spite of the probability being the same at age 10. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...
- hardtke 4y agoThis data, unfortunately, is missing an important confounding variable besides male/female. In the US lifespan his highly correlated with income, and the trend is getting worse. "The gap in life expectancy between the richest 1% and poorest 1% of individuals was 14.6 years (95% CI, 14.4 to 14.8 years) for men and 10.1 years (95% CI, 9.9 to 10.3 years) for women. Second, inequality in life expectancy increased over time. Between 2001 and 2014, life expectancy increased by 2.34 years for men and 2.91 years for women in the top 5% of the income distribution, but increased by only 0.32 years for men and 0.04 years for women in the bottom 5% (P < .001 for the difference for both sexes)." [1] [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4866586/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4866586/
- anamax 4y agoFrom the article: "The differences in life expectancy were correlated with health behaviors and local area characteristics." "Health behaviors (rates of current smoking, obesity [defined as body mass index {calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared} ≥30], and exercise during the past month)"
- zeroonetwothree 4y agoHard to say in which direction the causation lies.
- layer8 4y agoThat’s actually a good point: People who die earlier due to genetics accumulate less wealth in their lifetime, and their children therefore inherit less. With that causality, people are poorer literally because they die earlier, rather than the other way around. ;)
- sudosysgen 4y agoIsn't it the reverse for the vast majorit that live to see retirement?
- torstenvl 4y agoGreat resource. I use this all the time for military clients near or past retirement eligibility, to estimate the lifetime financial penalty of discharging them before retirement, or of retiring them in a lower grade.
- siddboots 4y agoOne fun thing to do is to take these death probabilities and throw them into a Leslie matrix [1], along with assumptions for the age-specific birth rates. From there you can simulate the projected population growth (ignoring migration) with no more than a couple of lines of Python/R/whathaveyou. It's also a great study case for understanding some basic principles of linear algebra: The dominant eigenvalue is the stable population growth rate, and the corresponding eigenvector is the stable age distribution. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_matrix https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_matrix
- morepork 4y agoBased on this, by the time you're 30, around 2% of your male high school peers have passed away, but only 1% of your female ones. Puts an interesting perspective on things.
- Teknoman117 4y agoI don't keep in regular contact with people from high school these days, but from what I've heard, I wouldn't be surprised if 1 to 2% of my graduating class has already died from suicide or accidents alone.
- kqr 4y agoI hadn't thought about that but yeah, of the 100-ish people I've known a bit closer in childhood and adolescence, I know two are dead now. Both were female, though.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- verisimi 4y agoI would love to see the same data for the last 2 years
- amyjess 4y agoI wish I was good enough at math to use these tables to figure out what percentage of the population is within a particular age range in any given year. In particular, I'm curious to see what years the population of particular generations peaked. Edit: Actually what I'm really looking to do is to correlate certain marketing demographics with generations. For example, "in what years did Generation X comprise the majority of living people in the 18-34 demographic?" (where Generation X is defined as people born 1961-1981).
- treespace8 4y agoWow, as a guy I have a 1/5 chance of not even making it to retirement. (65) 1/3 chance of not living past 75. These are not good odds.
- lotsofpulp 4y agoI wonder how those odds change if you narrow down to your occupation/socioeconomic status/location. I have always wondered what the income volatilities as you age are for the purposes of calculating how much I should be saving. My current strategy is to assume I will be unable to earn income and/or need to spend a lot on healthcare with increasing material odds starting at age 50 (since I might not have access to subsidized health insurance that comes with a job).
- Teknoman117 4y agoAnd coin toss of making to 80 (1/2). And if you make it to 90, every year is a round of russian roulette. Great. I didn't need an existential crisis today :) I really wonder about the quality of life as I age though. There is such a wide spread in my family. One of my grandfathers died of COVID early in the pandemic - he made it to 83. I had always considered him too stubborn to die. He survived two congestive heart failures, two bouts with cancer, and a heart attack. He had never taken care of himself (obese all of his life, heavy smoker from teenager to age 50, emphysema (from smoking), etc.). He caught COVID while recovering in a physical rehab from his heart attack and that's what ended up doing him in. His body was pretty much trashed by age 50 though. His ability to do things was pretty restricted from that point forward. As a child, he couldn't go on roller coasters with us, he had to be really careful with his diet, etc. He spent the last 3 years of his life in bed or wherever he could get on a walker. Meanwhile, my other three grandparents are enjoying their late 70's and early 80's - they travel, go hiking, play golf, play with the grand children and great-grandchildren, etc. I wonder how old I'll be when I get to the point where dying doesn't sound any worse than living.
- npsimons 4y ago> Meanwhile, my other three grandparents are enjoying their late 70's and early 80's - they travel, go hiking, play golf, play with the grand children and great-grandchildren, etc. It's okay to slow down, but don't stop moving.
- oversocialized 4y ago
- karakfa2 4y agoobesity and smoking status are more important than sex differences.
- rrjjww 4y agoShameless self plug - I'm an Actuary, and as a way to learn React I put together a website that teaches you the basic concepts and math behind these actuarial table. https://www.lifecontingencies.com https://www.lifecontingencies.com
- fludlight 4y agoIs there a site where one can add more data points like BMI, smoking, booze & other drugs, family history of horrible diseases, current medical conditions, etc?
- gaudat 4y agoDamn this looks good. Going to check it out in depth. I know a guy back in college who majored in actuarial science but he's also doing computer science. These 2 subjects have good synergy.
- justinbaker84 4y agoGreat job! Your site did a fantastic job of putting this into context for me.
- francisofascii 4y agoI like the visuals on the "How will I Die?" page. It is interesting to scroll up and down through various ages to see how the causes of death change.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- BenFranklin100 4y agoThis is exactly the table I turned to in April 2020 to put my risk of dying from COVID-19 into perspective. In short, I had much bigger things to worry about over the next 10 years.
- aidenn0 4y agoDoes this mean that until your 113th birthday you can expect to, on average, live to your next birthday?
- LodeOfCode 4y agoFor that you'd want to look at when the death probability exceeds 50% (108 for men, 109 for women). By 112 there's only a 40% chance you'll live to your next birthday
- aidenn0 4y agoActually I realized my original question was ill-specified, "average" being ambiguous. The median woman will live at least one more year as late as 108 but the mean will live at least one more year as late as 113
- adamzerner 4y agoThere is something I've never understood about this. Actually, I suspect that it is just plain old wrong. It looks at what ages people died in the year 2019. If you die at age 80 in 2019, that means you were born in 1939. But if people born in the year 1939 are living to age 80... how do I put this... wouldn't you expect people born in, say, 1989 to live longer? Wouldn't people born 50 years later have longer life expectancies? Especially if you believe the stuff about accelerating rates of technogical growth.
- mrtnmcc 4y agoBy choosing someone who died in 2019, you've implicitly chosen from the lucky group of survivors. This is not representative of everyone born in 1939. That is the discrepancy. If you add the current age to the remaining years of life, the total lifespan is monotonically increasing. This is reflecting the fact you are only looking at the expected age of an increasingly dwindling group of lucky survivors.
- dasil003 4y agoIANAA, but my assumption is that that is why they update the tables every year— we always have young cohorts with incomplete data, so the best we can do is extrapolate from the past. Given a fixed cohort, over time as new tables are generated and the cohort ages, the accuracy will converge to reality. You could then look at past tables retroactively to see the error in the original extrapolations (which could be large due to black swan events).
- hugh-avherald 4y agoThink of life expectancy as the expected age of death if you lived every year of your life in 2019.
- Kaius 4y agoRoughly 50% make it to age 80. Roughly 20% make it to 90. And around 1% make it to 100. The road curves steeply at the end!