You'd think that, but data-driven economists were finding low correlations for this kind of (rational) thing specifically for the modern US dollar, which is con

You'd think that, but data-driven economists were finding low correlations for this kind of (rational) thing specifically for the modern US dollar, which is confusing. Super great PlanetMoney/freakonomics episode on inflation ~last year. If I remember right, this broken state goes back to at least the Obama years, maybe closer to Clinton. It's a weird state to be in. The rational thing becomes to continue (leverage) the weird situation -- the market expects continued regular high spend for whatever regular big thing of the month/year -- and the irresponsible thing becomes any deviations that risk rocking the boat (ex: risk EU style rallying on austerity becoming a self-fulling prophecy). A lot on inflation concern is triggering FUD loops (sporadic supply chain hits vs YoY spirals), so when we know the market treats USD differently to beginwith, accepting the FUD (by policies that assumes the USD is a weaker currency) is kind of the worst thing policy makers can do. Likewise, most non-US countries rely on USD stability, so probably same thing for their policy makers. I'd hate to be the one making these calls.