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>Open question: won't inflation lead to mechanically higher stock prices, specially if it's demand driven? Mechanically higher not-USD things. Crypto, stocks,
by incomingpain 5y ago
>Open question: won't inflation lead to mechanically higher stock prices, specially if it's demand driven?
Mechanically higher not-USD things. Crypto, stocks, real estate, gold.
>Say we give duplicate the amount of money in the economy(M1 M2 etc) and prices immediately double. Won't that also double firm revenue, profits, dividends, and thus firm value in nominal terms?
It wont evenly distribute amongst crypto, stocks, real estate, gold, etc
>Thus, if stock prices and home prices are +10% in nominal terms, with inflation close to 10%, doesn't this mean they are just breaking even?
Oh ya, like you have to compare inflation to GDP to interest rates.
If GDP was 15% and inflation was 10% and interest rates are 10%. Those are some big numbers but not really a giant problem or anything. Social mobility would be fantastic in those numbers.
Reality: GDP is 6.9 with previous of 2.3, inflation 8.5%, and interest rates are 0.5%. YTD S&P500 is -6.75% while 1y is 7.3%
In reality the GDP figure is fake, temporary boost that wont be able to hold on.