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Across the board? At least 25%, 50% in some sectors like foods. They keep, and some people on HN, keep calling it a conspiracy when you mention actual inflatio

Across the board? At least 25%, 50% in some sectors like foods. They keep, and some people on HN, keep calling it a conspiracy when you mention actual inflation is a lot higher than reported, my question is what is this crowd's reasoning? Are they so well off that they are not able to see the rapid rise in prices because they use maids to do the grocery shopping? Why is it a conspiracy to suggest actual inflation is far above and beyond what is reported by the Feds, who are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to controlling the money markets now? If they raise rates to match actual inflation they are going to cause the asset bubble to burst. If they don't raise rates than they are going to find hyperinflation that will certainly damage USD's "exorbitant privilege"

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Why is it a conspiracy to suggest actual inflation is far above and beyond what is reported by the Feds The conspiracy is that it’s treated as a conspiracy. Local inflation varies wildly [1]. In official statistics. And inflation is personal, dependent on your basket of goods and services. There is no market evidence that inflation is endemic, but the market is frequently wrong. > so well off that they are not able to see the rapid rise in prices Many on this forum have equity holdings and/or in-demand jobs. Those make one somewhat inflation tolerant. [1] https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-metro-area.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri...
- rayiner 5y ago
  > Many on this forum have equity holdings and/or in-demand jobs. Those make one somewhat inflation tolerant. Yeah I’m genuinely shocked that people seem so upset about inflation. Then again I couldn’t tell you if the gas price down the road begins with a 3, a 4, or a 5.
hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
> They keep, and some people on HN, keep calling it a conspiracy when you mention actual inflation is a lot higher than reported, my question is what is this crowd's reasoning? I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, but throwing out random number like "25-50%" because you noticed your one specific grocery bill is more expensive also isn't an argument I'm going to give much credence to. The government is actually very transparent about how they calculate inflation and what goes into it, so if you're going to argue that they're bullshitting you need to argue one of: 1. The basket that they use to calculate the price index isn't a good representation of most people. 2. They're fibbing on specific prices. 3. The "smoothing" they always do can hide some of the recent acute inflation. If you want to make any of those arguments, with data, great! Please go ahead. I've certainly seen plenty of good arguments related to points 1 and 3, not so much point 2. Otherwise, it's fine to say you notice things you buy seem a lot more expensive, but that's not an argument that the Fed is somehow fudging the numbers.
- tomatowurst 5y ago
  i wasn't talking about groceries when i mentioned that number
  - hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
    It doesn't matter what you were referencing. As it's said a million times on HN, throwing out anecdotes is not data. If you have an problem with any of the specifics of how the CPI are calculated, then make it.
    - kolanos 5y ago
      Here's a comparison of CPI based on how it is calculated now with how it was calculated in the 1990s and 1980s. [0] There's a pretty clear trend here. Maybe the current calculation is more accurate. But I doubt it. Looks like suppression to me. [0]: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- omalleyt 5y ago
  > 2. They're fibbing on specific prices. Zillow rent index up 17%, CPI rent index up 5%
  - GloriousKoji 5y ago
    Zillow calculates it's rent based on previous and current listed rental prices. CPI calculates rent by asking people how much they are currently paying for rent or how much do they think it would cost to rent their place.
    - gruez 5y ago
      >CPI calculates rent by asking people how much they are currently paying for rent or how much do they think it would cost to rent their place. That's OER, which is computed separately from rent.
noelsusman 5y ago
The only way your grocery bill is up 50% is if you only eat used cars and gasoline. Official stats say grocery store items are up 10%, which is roughly line with my experience. It can vary a lot from item to item so it really depends on your diet. White bread is up 6% while wheat bread is up 9%. Meats are up 15% while fresh veggies are up 6%.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> Why is it a conspiracy to suggest actual inflation is far above and beyond what is reported by the Feds The conspiracy is that it’s treated as a conspiracy. Local inflation varies wildly [1]. In official statistics. And inflation is personal, dependent on your basket of goods and services. There is no market evidence that inflation is endemic, but the market is frequently wrong. > so well off that they are not able to see the rapid rise in prices Many on this forum have equity holdings and/or in-demand jobs. Those make one somewhat inflation tolerant. [1] https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-metro-area.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri...

rayiner 5y ago
> Many on this forum have equity holdings and/or in-demand jobs. Those make one somewhat inflation tolerant. Yeah I’m genuinely shocked that people seem so upset about inflation. Then again I couldn’t tell you if the gas price down the road begins with a 3, a 4, or a 5.

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago

> They keep, and some people on HN, keep calling it a conspiracy when you mention actual inflation is a lot higher than reported, my question is what is this crowd's reasoning? I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, but throwing out random number like "25-50%" because you noticed your one specific grocery bill is more expensive also isn't an argument I'm going to give much credence to. The government is actually very transparent about how they calculate inflation and what goes into it, so if you're going to argue that they're bullshitting you need to argue one of: 1. The basket that they use to calculate the price index isn't a good representation of most people. 2. They're fibbing on specific prices. 3. The "smoothing" they always do can hide some of the recent acute inflation. If you want to make any of those arguments, with data, great! Please go ahead. I've certainly seen plenty of good arguments related to points 1 and 3, not so much point 2. Otherwise, it's fine to say you notice things you buy seem a lot more expensive, but that's not an argument that the Fed is somehow fudging the numbers.

tomatowurst 5y ago
i wasn't talking about groceries when i mentioned that number
- hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
  It doesn't matter what you were referencing. As it's said a million times on HN, throwing out anecdotes is not data. If you have an problem with any of the specifics of how the CPI are calculated, then make it.
  - kolanos 5y ago
    Here's a comparison of CPI based on how it is calculated now with how it was calculated in the 1990s and 1980s. [0] There's a pretty clear trend here. Maybe the current calculation is more accurate. But I doubt it. Looks like suppression to me. [0]: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
omalleyt 5y ago
> 2. They're fibbing on specific prices. Zillow rent index up 17%, CPI rent index up 5%
- GloriousKoji 5y ago
  Zillow calculates it's rent based on previous and current listed rental prices. CPI calculates rent by asking people how much they are currently paying for rent or how much do they think it would cost to rent their place.
  - gruez 5y ago
    >CPI calculates rent by asking people how much they are currently paying for rent or how much do they think it would cost to rent their place. That's OER, which is computed separately from rent.

noelsusman 5y ago

The only way your grocery bill is up 50% is if you only eat used cars and gasoline. Official stats say grocery store items are up 10%, which is roughly line with my experience. It can vary a lot from item to item so it really depends on your diet. White bread is up 6% while wheat bread is up 9%. Meats are up 15% while fresh veggies are up 6%.