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What percent of people in the US do you think have Covid right now? I ask because 7452 people die per day in the US on average, meaning 6.7% of the people who
by jtbayly 5y ago
What percent of people in the US do you think have Covid right now?
I ask because 7452 people die per day in the US on average, meaning 6.7% of the people who die now have Covid (using your 500/day figure).
Clearly some die from and some happen to die with Covid. The difference could be estimated simplistically based on the percent of the population that currently has Covid. If 0.5% have Covid and 6.7% of the people who die have it, there is a correlation. If 5% have Covid and 6.7% of the people who die have it, there's not much correlation. (Of course, in the correlation case, it still doesn't prove causation, as the weakened immune systems of those who are dying may be unable to fight off Covid at the end.)
I think the best way to evaluate is to look at excess deaths. But even there you've got data contamination from the measures that were taken (drinking deaths, suicides up, flu down, etc.) and no way to figure out exactly how many of the various increases and decreases are directly attributable to the Covid measures.
- nicoburns 5y agoAre US hospitals/coroners not recording "from covid" and "with covid" separately? I've seen lots of anti-covid-prevention-measures people here in the UK make a big deal of this distinction as if nobody else had thought of it, but I've seen graphs based on official statistics which distinguish between the two groups in sources as mainstream as the BBC. At least here there's no need to estimate.
- jtbayly 5y agoIf you can find such numbers, I'd love to see them. > If the decedent tested positive for COVID, the virus also gets placed on the death certificate. Many of these people likely died with COVID, not from COVID, Grannis said. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/ct-ptb-davich-covid-related-deaths-versus-covid-causal-deaths-st-0221-20210219-gdspo5vg2bgatim7efo4gmxjpq-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/... Here's an article about Australia, too: > Indeed, distinguishing between dying with and dying from COVID-19 may require a more complex investigation into the cause of a death, beyond citing a positive SARS-CoV-2 test that was completed prior to the person’s death. https://theconversation.com/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19-we-need-a-transparent-approach-to-counting-coronavirus-deaths-145438 https://theconversation.com/died-from-or-died-with-covid-19-...
- nicoburns 5y agoI can't find the article I read before, but this one breaks it down for Wales: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643