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I'm 22. I feel like there hasn't been any major technologcal shift since ~2014. Phones have gotten faster and more capable, but are still mostly the same. Socia

by tiluha 5y ago

I'm 22. I feel like there hasn't been any major technologcal shift since ~2014. Phones have gotten faster and more capable, but are still mostly the same. Social media has gotten bigger, but hasn't innovated in a meaningful way. "AI" has gotten better which is fascinating, but in the end it will most likely just be used for manipulation, surveillance and manipulation. I can't really think of any technology to look forward to, that would improve my life or change the world (in a positive sense).

gilbetron 5y ago
Autonomous cars, AI/ML, and fusion are three things that will significantly change our world in the next decade or so. There will absolutely be downsides, but that's how tech works! And this doesn't even get into biological spheres of tech! Also, remember, people in 2005 had same thoughts as you're having right now! Throughout my entire life, people have been saying that tech and science is basically done. They've always been wrong, and I don't see an end in sight. It's the nature of exponentials. They seem slow and then suddenly the world changes. Only a handful of people actually can see that it is going to happen. We're just linear creatures with no intuition for exponential growth. Imagine sitting in a dark room and someone about to turn on a switch - up until the switch is flicked, it doesn't seem like anything is going to happen, and then suddenly you are reeling at the brightness. That's how tech innovation happens now. I bet in a decade you'll be looking back saying, holy shit, I did not see that coming about something! "Remember when we used to drive gas vehicles?" or "Remember when we thought fusion was impossible?" or "Remember when nobody owned a robot?" Who knows what it is, but there will be something! In 2014, almost nobody thought about having an app on their phone to summon a car to take them somewhere. Now it is everywhere (and struggling!). In 2014, speech recognition was awful. Now we have an automated robot lady that will answer spam calls for you!
- hwers 4y ago
  Autonomous cars and fusion are very different creatures than the growth of the internet or computers in general. The latter was widely distributed and had low hanging fruit that just about everyone in society could pluck and have fun with, the former is something a handful of companies and a few hundred researchers will get to develop while the rest of us will have to have our creativity satisfied with the fulfilling act of paying for it. (Even ML to an extent, since it's so data and compute expensive - generally far from a low hanging fruit -, though less so.)
  - kenjackson 4y ago
    The internet took decades to evolve and was heavily funded early on by government. It only became low hanging fruit once it achieved a high level of maturity -- largely until the WWW had a graphical browser.
raisedbyninjas 4y ago
Private space travel is exploding. In 2016 Spacex had captured 30% of the launch market. They've doubled that figure since. The space shuttle cost $50K per kilo of payload. The Falcon 9 brought that down to $3k. They're hoping starship can bring that down to $10! Imagine buying a burger for $5 and sending it to space for another $5. This is already bearing fruit of cheap, global satellite internet access.
Veuxdo 4y ago
99% of smartphone innovation over the past decade has gone into the camera so "influencers" can post better pictures.
stocknoob 4y ago
mRNA vaccines for novel disease being developed in days doesn’t do it for you?

by tiluha 5y ago

gilbetron 5y ago

Autonomous cars, AI/ML, and fusion are three things that will significantly change our world in the next decade or so. There will absolutely be downsides, but that's how tech works! And this doesn't even get into biological spheres of tech! Also, remember, people in 2005 had same thoughts as you're having right now! Throughout my entire life, people have been saying that tech and science is basically done. They've always been wrong, and I don't see an end in sight. It's the nature of exponentials. They seem slow and then suddenly the world changes. Only a handful of people actually can see that it is going to happen. We're just linear creatures with no intuition for exponential growth. Imagine sitting in a dark room and someone about to turn on a switch - up until the switch is flicked, it doesn't seem like anything is going to happen, and then suddenly you are reeling at the brightness. That's how tech innovation happens now. I bet in a decade you'll be looking back saying, holy shit, I did not see that coming about something! "Remember when we used to drive gas vehicles?" or "Remember when we thought fusion was impossible?" or "Remember when nobody owned a robot?" Who knows what it is, but there will be something! In 2014, almost nobody thought about having an app on their phone to summon a car to take them somewhere. Now it is everywhere (and struggling!). In 2014, speech recognition was awful. Now we have an automated robot lady that will answer spam calls for you!

hwers 4y ago
Autonomous cars and fusion are very different creatures than the growth of the internet or computers in general. The latter was widely distributed and had low hanging fruit that just about everyone in society could pluck and have fun with, the former is something a handful of companies and a few hundred researchers will get to develop while the rest of us will have to have our creativity satisfied with the fulfilling act of paying for it. (Even ML to an extent, since it's so data and compute expensive - generally far from a low hanging fruit -, though less so.)
- kenjackson 4y ago
  The internet took decades to evolve and was heavily funded early on by government. It only became low hanging fruit once it achieved a high level of maturity -- largely until the WWW had a graphical browser.

raisedbyninjas 4y ago

Private space travel is exploding. In 2016 Spacex had captured 30% of the launch market. They've doubled that figure since. The space shuttle cost $50K per kilo of payload. The Falcon 9 brought that down to $3k. They're hoping starship can bring that down to $10! Imagine buying a burger for $5 and sending it to space for another $5. This is already bearing fruit of cheap, global satellite internet access.

Veuxdo 4y ago

99% of smartphone innovation over the past decade has gone into the camera so "influencers" can post better pictures.

stocknoob 4y ago

mRNA vaccines for novel disease being developed in days doesn’t do it for you?