5 ms·

You're assuming Russians will just keep on as they are as if nothing happens. But it's not guaranteed. What if they repurpose a plant or two to making the cheap

by maratc 5y ago

You're assuming Russians will just keep on as they are as if nothing happens. But it's not guaranteed. What if they repurpose a plant or two to making the cheapest tanks possible, let's say T-34? What if they call a general draft?

_kbh_ 5y ago
If I was asked to jump into a T-34 against modern ATGM's I would revolt more then the tankers already are. A T-34 would be next to unless in Ukraine, and would just be a death sentence, a T-34 probably isn't even worth fielding against the more modern armour and ATGM's that are in Ukraine. Not to mention that Russia likely doesn't have any tank groups trained on the T-34 so they would need to spend time doing that as well. If Russia calls a general draft they are beyond desperate, their actual contract army is already doing incredibly poorly in Ukraine, called up conscripts would do even worse. Its worth keeping in mind that Russia still needs to defend the rest of its territory whilst invading Ukraine, they are incredibly paranoid about NATO and if Finland/Sweden join NATO they will need to deploy more troops to that border to try look like a real super power again.
- maratc 5y ago
  When running away from a tiger, the best strategy would be to move faster than the tiger. This, however, is not always feasible. A "good-enough" strategy would be, simply, to move faster than some other guy. This can definitely be achieved by running. Having that in mind: 0. Russia does not need the best hi-tech army in the world. To win, it just needs to out-gun Ukraine. 1. If it takes 100 Russian "tin cans" to destroy one Ukrainian tank, and Russia can produce 101 "tin cans" to 1 tank Ukraine can produce, the strategic balance is not good for Ukraine. 2. Russia produces its own armor, guns, planes, and SAM. Ukraine does not. 3. Russian materiel-producing plants are not under any danger of bombardment. Ukrainian plants are. 4. Russian population is 3:1 to Ukraine's. "Russian losses are twice as big as Ukraine's" is, tactically, nice "feel-good" news. Strategically, that's terrible news. 5. Finally, shall we talk about Russian nuclear arsenal vs. Ukrainian nuclear arsenal?
  - federoccco 5y ago
    Second point is not true, even though Ukraine doesn’t have the same capacity for everything, it still produces some tanks and ATGMs. Also civilian planes with Antonov Plant (they weren’t too productive last couple of years though) I think “production” here is not the most important part, even Russia uses mostly late Soviet era tech, slightly updated.
    - maratc 5y ago
      > it still produces some tanks It mainly repurposes old Soviet tanks, unless you count ten or so of the T-84. I doubt Kharkiv Armored Plant is a viable tank production facility with all the fighting that goes around Kharkiv. > Also civilian planes These are called "targets".
  - _kbh_ 5y ago
    It’s probably best to start with your last point. There’s a reason Russia and the Soviet Union never actually nuked a country, it’s a threat, that’s it. If Russia nukes Ukraine Russia likely ceases to exist. Russia constantly postures about nukes because they cannot actually use them. Russians loses are closer to 4:1 not 3:1 and this is with them fielding modern tanks. Russia is currently giving Ukraine so many tanks that they have more than they started the war with, so it looks like Ukraine is okay from that perspective. Additionally Russias costs in this more then just people and tanks. America is not sitting on the border for nothing, they are collecting some of the best SIGINT and ELINT of semi modern to modern Russian gear that they could hope for, as well as providing Ukraine with intelligence. I personally think a lot of Russia failures in this war have nothing to do with the equipment they are fielding and everything to do with a massive failure in Russian doctrine. Russia is fighting a war from the 1940s, Ukraine isn’t. It’s been pretty amazing seeing Ukraine capture intact Russian crypto gear and EW vehicles.
    - maratc 5y ago
      > If Russia nukes Ukraine Russia likely ceases to exist. ...while Ukraine certainly ceases to exist. Also, the only country that nuked another country hasn't ceased to exist, so not sure where your claim comes from. > Russians loses are closer to 4:1 not 3:1 Again, unsure where that claim comes from. Fog of war doesn't allow anyone to know the ratio for sure. > It’s been pretty amazing seeing Ukraine capture intact Russian crypto gear and EW vehicles. In the long term, this doesn't matter. Allies have captured lots of Enigma machines, but that's not what got them to decypher the Axis communications. Finally, the argument I'm making is that short-term doesn't matter, only long-term does, and we haven't seen that yet. The formidable resistance that Ukraine has managed to put up so far is impressive; but the final outcome will not necessarily be determined by it.
m0llusk 5y ago
In recent years Russia has focused their economy on resource extraction while allowing the farming and industrial sectors to become dependent on imports. As long as sanctions remain in place it is unlikely Russia will be able to consistently manufacture any modern industrial products including tanks.
sliken 5y ago
The largest and only tank factory has gone idle for lack of parts. Russia had a "Made in Russia" program for the military. But apparently bribes let many side step the rules and post proud "Made in Russia" announcements in the press, while basically relabeling imported parts. Even more amusing is a fair number of those parts come from the Ukraine. More factories isn't going to help, and these days it's hard to steer, power, target an enemy, or communicate without chips, which Russia is running very short of. Intel, AMD, and even Russia designed CPUs (Elbrus) are hard to come by, TSMC (and other foreign fabs) are honoring the sanctions. Apparently even the basics like steel are getting hard to come by.
- inter_netuser 5y ago
  are Chinese fabs honouring sanctions? what about downstream suppliers of generic ARM chips? >Apparently even the basics like steel are getting hard to come by. aren't they a sizeable steel exporter? "2018, Russia exported 33.3 million metric tons of steel, a 7 percent ... Russia exports steel to more than 130 countries and territories."
- maratc 5y ago
  > The largest and only tank factory has gone idle for lack of parts. This has been reported in western media; it might be true, or it might be a part of information war. Assuming it's true, shall we expect this to be a permanent problem or a temporary one? > it's hard to steer, power, target an enemy, or communicate without chips Hard but not impossible. Given that there's a military attache in each Russian embassy, and given the chips are sold over the counter pretty much anywhere, shall we expect this to be a permanent problem or a temporary one?

by maratc 5y ago

_kbh_ 5y ago

If I was asked to jump into a T-34 against modern ATGM's I would revolt more then the tankers already are. A T-34 would be next to unless in Ukraine, and would just be a death sentence, a T-34 probably isn't even worth fielding against the more modern armour and ATGM's that are in Ukraine. Not to mention that Russia likely doesn't have any tank groups trained on the T-34 so they would need to spend time doing that as well. If Russia calls a general draft they are beyond desperate, their actual contract army is already doing incredibly poorly in Ukraine, called up conscripts would do even worse. Its worth keeping in mind that Russia still needs to defend the rest of its territory whilst invading Ukraine, they are incredibly paranoid about NATO and if Finland/Sweden join NATO they will need to deploy more troops to that border to try look like a real super power again.

maratc 5y ago
When running away from a tiger, the best strategy would be to move faster than the tiger. This, however, is not always feasible. A "good-enough" strategy would be, simply, to move faster than some other guy. This can definitely be achieved by running. Having that in mind: 0. Russia does not need the best hi-tech army in the world. To win, it just needs to out-gun Ukraine. 1. If it takes 100 Russian "tin cans" to destroy one Ukrainian tank, and Russia can produce 101 "tin cans" to 1 tank Ukraine can produce, the strategic balance is not good for Ukraine. 2. Russia produces its own armor, guns, planes, and SAM. Ukraine does not. 3. Russian materiel-producing plants are not under any danger of bombardment. Ukrainian plants are. 4. Russian population is 3:1 to Ukraine's. "Russian losses are twice as big as Ukraine's" is, tactically, nice "feel-good" news. Strategically, that's terrible news. 5. Finally, shall we talk about Russian nuclear arsenal vs. Ukrainian nuclear arsenal?
- federoccco 5y ago
  Second point is not true, even though Ukraine doesn’t have the same capacity for everything, it still produces some tanks and ATGMs. Also civilian planes with Antonov Plant (they weren’t too productive last couple of years though) I think “production” here is not the most important part, even Russia uses mostly late Soviet era tech, slightly updated.
  - maratc 5y ago
    > it still produces some tanks It mainly repurposes old Soviet tanks, unless you count ten or so of the T-84. I doubt Kharkiv Armored Plant is a viable tank production facility with all the fighting that goes around Kharkiv. > Also civilian planes These are called "targets".
- _kbh_ 5y ago
  It’s probably best to start with your last point. There’s a reason Russia and the Soviet Union never actually nuked a country, it’s a threat, that’s it. If Russia nukes Ukraine Russia likely ceases to exist. Russia constantly postures about nukes because they cannot actually use them. Russians loses are closer to 4:1 not 3:1 and this is with them fielding modern tanks. Russia is currently giving Ukraine so many tanks that they have more than they started the war with, so it looks like Ukraine is okay from that perspective. Additionally Russias costs in this more then just people and tanks. America is not sitting on the border for nothing, they are collecting some of the best SIGINT and ELINT of semi modern to modern Russian gear that they could hope for, as well as providing Ukraine with intelligence. I personally think a lot of Russia failures in this war have nothing to do with the equipment they are fielding and everything to do with a massive failure in Russian doctrine. Russia is fighting a war from the 1940s, Ukraine isn’t. It’s been pretty amazing seeing Ukraine capture intact Russian crypto gear and EW vehicles.
  - maratc 5y ago
    > If Russia nukes Ukraine Russia likely ceases to exist. ...while Ukraine certainly ceases to exist. Also, the only country that nuked another country hasn't ceased to exist, so not sure where your claim comes from. > Russians loses are closer to 4:1 not 3:1 Again, unsure where that claim comes from. Fog of war doesn't allow anyone to know the ratio for sure. > It’s been pretty amazing seeing Ukraine capture intact Russian crypto gear and EW vehicles. In the long term, this doesn't matter. Allies have captured lots of Enigma machines, but that's not what got them to decypher the Axis communications. Finally, the argument I'm making is that short-term doesn't matter, only long-term does, and we haven't seen that yet. The formidable resistance that Ukraine has managed to put up so far is impressive; but the final outcome will not necessarily be determined by it.

m0llusk 5y ago

In recent years Russia has focused their economy on resource extraction while allowing the farming and industrial sectors to become dependent on imports. As long as sanctions remain in place it is unlikely Russia will be able to consistently manufacture any modern industrial products including tanks.

sliken 5y ago

The largest and only tank factory has gone idle for lack of parts. Russia had a "Made in Russia" program for the military. But apparently bribes let many side step the rules and post proud "Made in Russia" announcements in the press, while basically relabeling imported parts. Even more amusing is a fair number of those parts come from the Ukraine. More factories isn't going to help, and these days it's hard to steer, power, target an enemy, or communicate without chips, which Russia is running very short of. Intel, AMD, and even Russia designed CPUs (Elbrus) are hard to come by, TSMC (and other foreign fabs) are honoring the sanctions. Apparently even the basics like steel are getting hard to come by.

inter_netuser 5y ago
are Chinese fabs honouring sanctions? what about downstream suppliers of generic ARM chips? >Apparently even the basics like steel are getting hard to come by. aren't they a sizeable steel exporter? "2018, Russia exported 33.3 million metric tons of steel, a 7 percent ... Russia exports steel to more than 130 countries and territories."
maratc 5y ago
> The largest and only tank factory has gone idle for lack of parts. This has been reported in western media; it might be true, or it might be a part of information war. Assuming it's true, shall we expect this to be a permanent problem or a temporary one? > it's hard to steer, power, target an enemy, or communicate without chips Hard but not impossible. Given that there's a military attache in each Russian embassy, and given the chips are sold over the counter pretty much anywhere, shall we expect this to be a permanent problem or a temporary one?