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Unpopular opinion -- in the US, inflation is necessary. My feeling is that we have been in an immensely inflationary regimen in many ways for a long time. We s
by andrewla 5y ago
Unpopular opinion -- in the US, inflation is necessary.
My feeling is that we have been in an immensely inflationary regimen in many ways for a long time. We see that in the money supply, and we see it in the credit market and the capital markets in general -- too much cheap capital. This manifests in many unhealthy ways.
The core problem is that we have been playing games to hide inflation. Outsourcing has allowed us to hide the general inflation of almost all sectors with deflation in electronics and consumer goods. Lax antitrust and "consumer rights" has pushed heavy discounting and loss-leading into the forefront, which means that plentiful capital can cause prices to appear low by shifting them to other sectors.
If we enact important policy changes to antitrust, trade, labor, and climate, there will be inevitable increases in prices, because there's a reason that we're buying all of our consumer goods from China. Hedge funds and private equity and investment banks have huge amounts of capital from loose monetary policy, and they use that to create situations that drive down prices and drive up equity prices, which they unload on huge index funds with consumer funds driven by vast government incentives, and once they manipulate the price up high enough the mark-to-market of their holdings unlocks the ability to access even more capital for this cycle.
Teams of economists work constantly to ensure that our macroeconomic metrics balance out so that we get increasingly useless measures of "productivity" or "GDP" or frankly even "inflation". All we are seeing now is that we are running out of ways to hide inflation.
- shostack 5y agoIs there a visualization of this anywhere? Do you see this as how the money people have invested in index funds (bogleheads and whatnot) gets "harvested?"
- nukemaster 5y agoAsset price inflation is more or less eating the children. None of the younger people can afford to live on their own which means keeping the same production requires civilization destroying high rates of immigration (and even that isn't really working.) It doesn't really matter now, it's way way too late to fix but these two things will more or less end the US, it's how most of the large Western empires ended.
- RickJWagner 5y agoInflation is eating the elderly, and those living without an expandable paycheck. IMHO, today's inflation seems inevitable based on recent very loose monetary policy. Blaming it on Putin is ludicrous. It's also noteworthy that inflation is perhaps the most attractive way (politically) for the growing debt to be marginalized. The other tools (tax raises and spending cuts) tend to bring sharper reactions at the ballot box.