3 ms·
> It's that, or becoming a Kremlin/Beijing puppet Let's not exaggerate. There is a large middle ground where Finland bets on that the EU defence clause will de
by jeltz 5y ago
> It's that, or becoming a Kremlin/Beijing puppet
Let's not exaggerate. There is a large middle ground where Finland bets on that the EU defence clause will deter Russia, that we can build an EU army or that the war in Ukraine will cripple Russia.
But yes, your main point is correct. The Finnish and Swedish defence strategies have been primarily based on knowning that we will lose to Russia but making the invasion too costly for a sane Russian leader to consider an invasion. And Putin's stupid invasion of Ukraine just reduced confidence in the idea that we can rely on a sane cost benefit analysis from the Russian leadership. Which does increase the appeal of a NATO membership.
- ahartmetz 5y agoFrom what I read, Putin is not insane in a strict sense, but he based his decision on wrong information (Ukrainians hate their government and will not put up a fight). He would probably not get the same wrong information about Finland and Sweden - it would be much less plausible and the history-based Russian biases don't exist. Well, I still see the point for Finland and Sweden.
- fsloth 5y agoThe kowtowing to Kremlin/Beijing would not be due to direct military pressure, but from lack of capital sources elsewhere. It's a plausible scenario, but not a sure one. Finland is capital poor country, it needs foreign investment or else it will stagnate. Without NATO after Ukraine the investment environment in Finland will likely be perceived as highly unstable. China, OTOH, is happy to continue investing vast amount of capital in it's Eurasian project / Belt&Road initiative. Without NATO, Russia being a loyal subject of the CCP after being sanctioned out of the western sphere of trade, Beijing alliance would be irresistible by guaranteeing both capital and security. Would that be bad? If you like free speech, then yes. If you like high quality institutions then yes. This is of course again a bit hyperbolic - western capital flight might not happen.