8 ms·

Not an military expert so please correct my analysis. But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. The key here is Sweden's

by fsloth 5y ago

Not an military expert so please correct my analysis. But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. The key here is Sweden's the island of Gotland sitting at the middle of the Baltic sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Gotland/@58.8670134,17.054826,5.79z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f79b21976f2afd:0xf6a2b0aaed93f7a4!8m2!3d57.4684121!4d18.4867447 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Gotland/@58.8670134,17.054... In most scenarios it would serve as a most advantageous base for RU operations, including serving as an unsinkable airplane carrier / missile platform. If SWE was the only non-NATO country in Northern Europe it would be quite open for an attack. In case RU decided to invade Gotland from it's base in Kaliningrad, there is very little anyone could do to stop it. The current conflict has taught that NATO forces will not engage with RU forces. If FI joins NATO, it effectively blocks FI from helping SWE to defend itself. Basically, if FI joins NATO Gotland is open for picking for RU.

yucky 5y ago
>But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. Why? Russia has made no mention of any issues with Sweden. And in this scenario, the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO. Not saying that is a valid reason for Russia to go on the offensive, but it is a well known and documented policy.
- fsloth 5y ago
  "the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO." No, Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. I don't understand where this logic "if Finland joins NATO then Russia will invade it". That is backward logic. Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot.
  - crateless 5y ago
    > Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. Russia has not engaged in conflict with a NATO country, so far. If the stakes are raised high enough, I don't think this will continue to hold. > Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot. I would go so far as to say that if Finland applies to join NATO, they'd have to. That is, if it is truly part of their doctrine that NATO/US is an existential threat to the Russian state.
    - fsloth 5y ago
      Russia is bullshitting - they are not afraid NATO would invade them. The balance of fear due to nuclear weapons if nothing else guarantees this. Russia is opposed to the fact it can't bully it's weaker neighbours on a whim if they are in NATO. That is the cause for their irritation.
      - klawcode 5y ago
        I trust Finland and Sweden's analysis. That more than anything else solidified my trust in the NATO position on Ukraine. If Finland and Sweden remained neutral throughout the entire cold war and yet now are openly considering NATO membership, it means something.
        fsloth 5y ago
        Well, Finland was basically Sweden's shield, and Finland was yielding to Kremlin, so there was very little risk of conflict. Now Russia has more or less proclaimed it's "back to the empire" agenda which implies subjugation of all of the former states of the russian empire. Which includes Finland. The weird thing is, even though Russians lie constantly, when they declare foreign policy targets, they are surprisingly honest and consistent about that. This implies 1) Finland needs to join NATO asap. 2) After that sweden would be the only weak target left. Gotland is an obvious, concrete military goal that would be feasible target for a RU invasion from Kaliningrad.
- macintux 5y ago
  Russia has no legitimate reason to be leveling Ukraine, yet here we are. All Putin has to do is say that Gotland is critical for defending Kaliningrad from NATO to have an excuse to take it.
  - yucky 5y ago
    I'm curious to hear what you think the reason was that Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
    - macintux 5y ago
      I wouldn't know all of Putin's reasoning, but I have to assume that his expressed regret over the dissolution of the Soviet Union, his desire to find out just how much he'd be punished for it, his anger (and need to save face) over the Maidan Revolution, all played a role.
      - yucky 5y ago
        Look at when the Ukraine revolution/coup happened, and when Putin annexed Crimea. Also, understand that after the coup, when Ukraine rewrote their Constitution they laid the ground work to drop neutrality and join NATO. Putin annexed Crimea the next day. The only reason things didn't continue to accelerate under Trump is because he was not a fan of NATO and had no financial interests in Ukraine like Biden does, so the Ukrainians knew they had no friend in him. Once Biden won, Ukraine went back to poking the bear with obvious results. I'm sure the Biden families financial activities in Ukraine are 100% completely unrelated though.
        macintux 5y ago
        Tell me exactly what crimes Ukraine committed that make mass rape, kidnapping, murder, and destruction an appropriate response.
        yucky 5y ago
kilotaras 5y ago
> If SWE was the only non-NATO country in Northern Europe it would be quite open for an attack. EU has a mutual defense clause [0] [0] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/sede/dv/sede200612mutualdefsolidarityclauses_/sede200612mutualdefsolidarityclauses_en.pdf https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/...

by fsloth 5y ago

yucky 5y ago

>But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. Why? Russia has made no mention of any issues with Sweden. And in this scenario, the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO. Not saying that is a valid reason for Russia to go on the offensive, but it is a well known and documented policy.

fsloth 5y ago
"the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO." No, Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. I don't understand where this logic "if Finland joins NATO then Russia will invade it". That is backward logic. Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot.
- crateless 5y ago
  > Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. Russia has not engaged in conflict with a NATO country, so far. If the stakes are raised high enough, I don't think this will continue to hold. > Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot. I would go so far as to say that if Finland applies to join NATO, they'd have to. That is, if it is truly part of their doctrine that NATO/US is an existential threat to the Russian state.
  - fsloth 5y ago
    Russia is bullshitting - they are not afraid NATO would invade them. The balance of fear due to nuclear weapons if nothing else guarantees this. Russia is opposed to the fact it can't bully it's weaker neighbours on a whim if they are in NATO. That is the cause for their irritation.
    - klawcode 5y ago
      I trust Finland and Sweden's analysis. That more than anything else solidified my trust in the NATO position on Ukraine. If Finland and Sweden remained neutral throughout the entire cold war and yet now are openly considering NATO membership, it means something.
      - fsloth 5y ago
        Well, Finland was basically Sweden's shield, and Finland was yielding to Kremlin, so there was very little risk of conflict. Now Russia has more or less proclaimed it's "back to the empire" agenda which implies subjugation of all of the former states of the russian empire. Which includes Finland. The weird thing is, even though Russians lie constantly, when they declare foreign policy targets, they are surprisingly honest and consistent about that. This implies 1) Finland needs to join NATO asap. 2) After that sweden would be the only weak target left. Gotland is an obvious, concrete military goal that would be feasible target for a RU invasion from Kaliningrad.
macintux 5y ago
Russia has no legitimate reason to be leveling Ukraine, yet here we are. All Putin has to do is say that Gotland is critical for defending Kaliningrad from NATO to have an excuse to take it.
- yucky 5y ago
  I'm curious to hear what you think the reason was that Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
  - macintux 5y ago
    I wouldn't know all of Putin's reasoning, but I have to assume that his expressed regret over the dissolution of the Soviet Union, his desire to find out just how much he'd be punished for it, his anger (and need to save face) over the Maidan Revolution, all played a role.
    - yucky 5y ago
      Look at when the Ukraine revolution/coup happened, and when Putin annexed Crimea. Also, understand that after the coup, when Ukraine rewrote their Constitution they laid the ground work to drop neutrality and join NATO. Putin annexed Crimea the next day. The only reason things didn't continue to accelerate under Trump is because he was not a fan of NATO and had no financial interests in Ukraine like Biden does, so the Ukrainians knew they had no friend in him. Once Biden won, Ukraine went back to poking the bear with obvious results. I'm sure the Biden families financial activities in Ukraine are 100% completely unrelated though.
      - macintux 5y ago
        Tell me exactly what crimes Ukraine committed that make mass rape, kidnapping, murder, and destruction an appropriate response.
        yucky 5y ago

kilotaras 5y ago

> If SWE was the only non-NATO country in Northern Europe it would be quite open for an attack. EU has a mutual defense clause [0] [0] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/sede/dv/sede200612mutualdefsolidarityclauses_/sede200612mutualdefsolidarityclauses_en.pdf https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/...