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Finland is very likely to join NATO. Support for NATO among the population is very high and among active Finnish military personnel it's over 90%. The country s

Finland is very likely to join NATO. Support for NATO among the population is very high and among active Finnish military personnel it's over 90%. The country shares a border with Russia and there is some historical bad blood between Finland and Russia. However only 50% of Swedes want to join NATO and the current ruling government is anti-NATO. If I was a betting person I would put the likelihood of Finland joining NATO at 99% and the likelihood of Sweden joining NATO at 0%.

erikstarck 5y ago
If Finland joins, Sweden will follow. We can't be the only baltic nation outside NATO. That would be both foolish and selfish. With the third largest party, SD, switching there is a majority in Riksdagen pro-NATO. S will follow soon.
- cute_boi 5y ago
  Is there any benefit for Sweden to join NATO? Finland is directly attached to Russia, so it might benefit them from future aggression. But, I don't see any reason for Sweden to join NATO. Also, people seem to forget the cost of joining NATO is not free.
  - erikstarck 5y ago
    There is absolutely no one that will come and assist Sweden when Russia decides to take Gotland if we’re not in NATO. And it’s extremely selfish by the self proclaimed humanitarian super power to not step in and help if some of our Baltic neighbors were attacked. The cost of a strong enough military outside NATO is higher than inside. 4-5% of GDP vs 2%.
    - doikor 5y ago
      And Finland is already spending between 2.5 to 3.5% of its GDP on defense already (depends on how one calculates the actual cost of conscription). Finland joining nato will not increase its defense spending in the long term
  - Reimersholme 5y ago
    The Swedish island Gotland is of central strategic importance in the baltic sea, so in case of a conflict either NATO or Russia would seize control of the island with or without Sweden’s consent. Not to mention to secure against a Russian invasion of the mainland, of course…
macintux 5y ago
Finland and Sweden have historically been very closely aligned with their foreign/defense policies. Neither would join without consulting the other, so while there’s no guarantee that they’ll make the same decision, I certainly would not place the two at opposite ends when making odds.
fsloth 5y ago
Not an military expert so please correct my analysis. But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. The key here is Sweden's the island of Gotland sitting at the middle of the Baltic sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Gotland/@58.8670134,17.054826,5.79z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f79b21976f2afd:0xf6a2b0aaed93f7a4!8m2!3d57.4684121!4d18.4867447 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Gotland/@58.8670134,17.054... In most scenarios it would serve as a most advantageous base for RU operations, including serving as an unsinkable airplane carrier / missile platform. If SWE was the only non-NATO country in Northern Europe it would be quite open for an attack. In case RU decided to invade Gotland from it's base in Kaliningrad, there is very little anyone could do to stop it. The current conflict has taught that NATO forces will not engage with RU forces. If FI joins NATO, it effectively blocks FI from helping SWE to defend itself. Basically, if FI joins NATO Gotland is open for picking for RU.
- yucky 5y ago
  >But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. Why? Russia has made no mention of any issues with Sweden. And in this scenario, the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO. Not saying that is a valid reason for Russia to go on the offensive, but it is a well known and documented policy.
  - fsloth 5y ago
    "the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO." No, Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. I don't understand where this logic "if Finland joins NATO then Russia will invade it". That is backward logic. Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot.
    - crateless 5y ago
      > Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. Russia has not engaged in conflict with a NATO country, so far. If the stakes are raised high enough, I don't think this will continue to hold. > Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot. I would go so far as to say that if Finland applies to join NATO, they'd have to. That is, if it is truly part of their doctrine that NATO/US is an existential threat to the Russian state.
reducesuffering 5y ago
If I was a betting person, I would never put stock in that atrocious betting record of yours again. Sweden set to join NATO: https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1514181898456555531 https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1514181898456555531
mzs 5y ago
Sweden's Social Democrats already decided to submit application in June https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31016003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31016003

erikstarck 5y ago

If Finland joins, Sweden will follow. We can't be the only baltic nation outside NATO. That would be both foolish and selfish. With the third largest party, SD, switching there is a majority in Riksdagen pro-NATO. S will follow soon.

cute_boi 5y ago
Is there any benefit for Sweden to join NATO? Finland is directly attached to Russia, so it might benefit them from future aggression. But, I don't see any reason for Sweden to join NATO. Also, people seem to forget the cost of joining NATO is not free.
- erikstarck 5y ago
  There is absolutely no one that will come and assist Sweden when Russia decides to take Gotland if we’re not in NATO. And it’s extremely selfish by the self proclaimed humanitarian super power to not step in and help if some of our Baltic neighbors were attacked. The cost of a strong enough military outside NATO is higher than inside. 4-5% of GDP vs 2%.
  - doikor 5y ago
    And Finland is already spending between 2.5 to 3.5% of its GDP on defense already (depends on how one calculates the actual cost of conscription). Finland joining nato will not increase its defense spending in the long term
- Reimersholme 5y ago
  The Swedish island Gotland is of central strategic importance in the baltic sea, so in case of a conflict either NATO or Russia would seize control of the island with or without Sweden’s consent. Not to mention to secure against a Russian invasion of the mainland, of course…

macintux 5y ago

Finland and Sweden have historically been very closely aligned with their foreign/defense policies. Neither would join without consulting the other, so while there’s no guarantee that they’ll make the same decision, I certainly would not place the two at opposite ends when making odds.

fsloth 5y ago

Not an military expert so please correct my analysis. But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. The key here is Sweden's the island of Gotland sitting at the middle of the Baltic sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Gotland/@58.8670134,17.054826,5.79z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x46f79b21976f2afd:0xf6a2b0aaed93f7a4!8m2!3d57.4684121!4d18.4867447 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Gotland/@58.8670134,17.054... In most scenarios it would serve as a most advantageous base for RU operations, including serving as an unsinkable airplane carrier / missile platform. If SWE was the only non-NATO country in Northern Europe it would be quite open for an attack. In case RU decided to invade Gotland from it's base in Kaliningrad, there is very little anyone could do to stop it. The current conflict has taught that NATO forces will not engage with RU forces. If FI joins NATO, it effectively blocks FI from helping SWE to defend itself. Basically, if FI joins NATO Gotland is open for picking for RU.

yucky 5y ago
>But if Finland joins NATO, Sweden either must yield to RU or join NATO itself. Why? Russia has made no mention of any issues with Sweden. And in this scenario, the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO. Not saying that is a valid reason for Russia to go on the offensive, but it is a well known and documented policy.
- fsloth 5y ago
  "the only reason Finland would find themselves in conflict is if they joined NATO." No, Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. I don't understand where this logic "if Finland joins NATO then Russia will invade it". That is backward logic. Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot.
  - crateless 5y ago
    > Russia does not want to engage in conflict with a NATO country. If Finland joins NATO then Finland will be at piece for the next century, guaranteed. Russia has not engaged in conflict with a NATO country, so far. If the stakes are raised high enough, I don't think this will continue to hold. > Russia has very little reason to invade Finland now, and if Finland joins NATO, it cannot. I would go so far as to say that if Finland applies to join NATO, they'd have to. That is, if it is truly part of their doctrine that NATO/US is an existential threat to the Russian state.

reducesuffering 5y ago

If I was a betting person, I would never put stock in that atrocious betting record of yours again. Sweden set to join NATO: https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1514181898456555531 https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1514181898456555531

mzs 5y ago

Sweden's Social Democrats already decided to submit application in June https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31016003 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31016003