Pre-invasion, I put the odds of invasion around 30% because one of Putin's gripes was Ukraine flirting with the West and NATO, and while invading would could ce

Pre-invasion, I put the odds of invasion around 30% because one of Putin's gripes was Ukraine flirting with the West and NATO, and while invading would could cement its role as "borderlands," it would also convince Sweden and Finland to join, and quickly. I also saw it as long-term detrimental to its role as an energy exporter because this would inspire Europe to quickly migrate to more renewables, though this take is more of a western perspective and probably wasn't a priority for Putin.