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I think that it is incredibly unlikely the world could stomach Russia level sanctions on China so there may be a more muted response more focused on getting com

I think that it is incredibly unlikely the world could stomach Russia level sanctions on China so there may be a more muted response more focused on getting companies to more rapidly unwind their supply chains from China. Also, in the meantime there may be more proactive responses from the government to prevent this happening in other sectors (e.g. the Senator Casey/Cornyn outbound investment screening proposal) https://www.casey.senate.gov/news/releases/casey-and-cornyn-release-a-joint-statement-on-national-critical-capabilities-defense-act https://www.casey.senate.gov/news/releases/casey-and-cornyn-...

fit2rule 5y ago
wollsmoth 5y ago
yeah, I'm not even sure how long we can really squeeze Russia.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  If we=USA then I think we can squeeze Russia forever, if we=USA/EU/West then indeed, it will be tougher to pull off
  - wollsmoth 5y ago
    Yeah, more or less. Rising commodity prices will eventually hit Americans though and they may not be tolerant of this in the long term.
phoehne 5y ago
It may not even be a sanctions choice by the US. It could be that China decides that making Macs, iPhones, and iPads does not align with "common prosperity." They could make up a new law that says Apple devices need special export inspections, only available on February 30. It would have an outsized effect on the US Markets because Apple is such a large part of both the indexes (which grab headlines) but also their portfolios. (Either directly or through funds they hold). It's not going to cripple the US, but it would inflict pain. Most likely more pain than the Chinese leadership would feel.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  Yeah, I'm highly skeptical that China would do that to one of the largest companies in the world, not because they probably couldn't withstand it, but because of the general market signal it would create. Sentiment is already turning or has turned negative on China but it's a big market so many companies persist, but imagine if the biggest company in the world can just be shut out? Many companies would probably stay, but it'd just be to milk what they can out of the market, I doubt any would really invest significant resources in China anymore.

fit2rule 5y ago

wollsmoth 5y ago

yeah, I'm not even sure how long we can really squeeze Russia.

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
If we=USA then I think we can squeeze Russia forever, if we=USA/EU/West then indeed, it will be tougher to pull off
- wollsmoth 5y ago
  Yeah, more or less. Rising commodity prices will eventually hit Americans though and they may not be tolerant of this in the long term.

phoehne 5y ago

It may not even be a sanctions choice by the US. It could be that China decides that making Macs, iPhones, and iPads does not align with "common prosperity." They could make up a new law that says Apple devices need special export inspections, only available on February 30. It would have an outsized effect on the US Markets because Apple is such a large part of both the indexes (which grab headlines) but also their portfolios. (Either directly or through funds they hold). It's not going to cripple the US, but it would inflict pain. Most likely more pain than the Chinese leadership would feel.

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
Yeah, I'm highly skeptical that China would do that to one of the largest companies in the world, not because they probably couldn't withstand it, but because of the general market signal it would create. Sentiment is already turning or has turned negative on China but it's a big market so many companies persist, but imagine if the biggest company in the world can just be shut out? Many companies would probably stay, but it'd just be to milk what they can out of the market, I doubt any would really invest significant resources in China anymore.