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If China did something crazy that required Russia level sanctions on China, Apple would be hard over a barrel. You could have an Apple with nothing to sell but

If China did something crazy that required Russia level sanctions on China, Apple would be hard over a barrel. You could have an Apple with nothing to sell but their existing, current inventory. They should be spreading out some manufacturing to hedge risk.

atlasunshrugged 5y ago
I think that it is incredibly unlikely the world could stomach Russia level sanctions on China so there may be a more muted response more focused on getting companies to more rapidly unwind their supply chains from China. Also, in the meantime there may be more proactive responses from the government to prevent this happening in other sectors (e.g. the Senator Casey/Cornyn outbound investment screening proposal) https://www.casey.senate.gov/news/releases/casey-and-cornyn-release-a-joint-statement-on-national-critical-capabilities-defense-act https://www.casey.senate.gov/news/releases/casey-and-cornyn-...
- fit2rule 5y ago
- wollsmoth 5y ago
  yeah, I'm not even sure how long we can really squeeze Russia.
  - atlasunshrugged 5y ago
    If we=USA then I think we can squeeze Russia forever, if we=USA/EU/West then indeed, it will be tougher to pull off
    - wollsmoth 5y ago
      Yeah, more or less. Rising commodity prices will eventually hit Americans though and they may not be tolerant of this in the long term.
- phoehne 5y ago
  It may not even be a sanctions choice by the US. It could be that China decides that making Macs, iPhones, and iPads does not align with "common prosperity." They could make up a new law that says Apple devices need special export inspections, only available on February 30. It would have an outsized effect on the US Markets because Apple is such a large part of both the indexes (which grab headlines) but also their portfolios. (Either directly or through funds they hold). It's not going to cripple the US, but it would inflict pain. Most likely more pain than the Chinese leadership would feel.
  - atlasunshrugged 5y ago
    Yeah, I'm highly skeptical that China would do that to one of the largest companies in the world, not because they probably couldn't withstand it, but because of the general market signal it would create. Sentiment is already turning or has turned negative on China but it's a big market so many companies persist, but imagine if the biggest company in the world can just be shut out? Many companies would probably stay, but it'd just be to milk what they can out of the market, I doubt any would really invest significant resources in China anymore.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
toast0 5y ago
What phone company or computer company would be able to build their product without their Chinese supply chain? Russia aimed to be sanctions proof by having a largely self-sufficient industry. China aims to be sanctions proof by being critical in all supply chains. The US aims to be sanction proof by controlling the sanctions regime.
- fsflover 5y ago
  > What phone company or computer company would be able to build their product without their Chinese supply chain? https://puri.sm/products/librem-5-usa https://puri.sm/products/librem-5-usa
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  China doesn't make that many critical parts for phones. Excluding Taiwan - does China have a monopoly on anything important beside assembly for Apple? Samsung would not be screwed.
  - throwaway4good 5y ago
    Batteries?
  - uuyi 5y ago
    It’s not about parts but raw materials. It’s far more expensive to import materials, make parts and assemble post import than assemble everything at source and then export it.
  - atlasunshrugged 5y ago
    Literally the vast majority of the critical mineral supply chain that is needed as inputs for most modern electronics, EVs, etc. although the US gov is finally waking up and doing something about it. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/22/fact-sheet-securing-a-made-in-america-supply-chain-for-critical-minerals/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...
- ksec 5y ago
lkxijlewlf 5y ago
Does any place outside of China manufacture electronic parts (resisters, capacitors, etc)? Even if Apple moved most of their manufacturing to India, I think they'd still be dependent on China (as would everyone else).
- mtts 5y ago
  Yes. In fact the stuff you list doesn’t come from China at all but Indonesia. More complicated components come from Malaysia and Thailand, as do hard drives and the like.
md_ 5y ago
"If"? Like...forced sterilization and "re-education" camps for religious and ethnic minorities? https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/china-xinjiang-prison-state-uighur-detention-camps-prisoner-testimony https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/china-xin... Spying on Uighers abroad and holding their innocent relatives at home hostage so that they will not agitate against human rights abuses? https://harpers.org/archive/2022/04/the-spies-next-door-uighur-exiles-turkey-intimidation/ https://harpers.org/archive/2022/04/the-spies-next-door-uigh... Or employing slave labor in factories in Western supply chains? https://www.aspi.org.au/report/uyghurs-sale https://www.aspi.org.au/report/uyghurs-sale
- trasz 5y ago
- newaccount74 5y ago
  I think the worst part is where they murder political prisoners by removing their organs to transplant them to rich people from abroad. Horrible things have been going on in China for decades but nobody dares say anything because we are dependent on their manufacturing.
  - atlasunshrugged 5y ago
    Woah, hadn't heard about the murdering political prisoners and doing transplants, can you share a link to where I can read more?
    - md_ 5y ago
      I think a reference to https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/china-is-harvesting-organs-from-detainees-uk-tribunal-concludes https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/china-is-harve....
- mort96 5y ago
  If your argument is that we ought to be much more harsh against China due to their treatment of their population, then yeah, that's fair. All the stuff you mention, and more, is pretty horrific and deserving of some kind of response. However, historically, it doesn't seem like the imperial core enacts aggressive foreign policy purely for the benefit of the people in a country. Sanctioning China would be against the imperial core's geopolitical and financial interests at the moment, which means it won't happen, even though China's actions are ethically horrific. GP's "if" refers to if China does something which makes countries in the core actually sanction China. If I'm wrong, please correct me, it would be interesting to see cases where the core enacts sanctions against its own geopolitical, ideological or financial interests in an attempt to benefit some suppressed group of people. I'm not an expert on the topic, just casually interested.
memish 5y ago
Who would be hurt more by that? China or Apple?

atlasunshrugged 5y ago

I think that it is incredibly unlikely the world could stomach Russia level sanctions on China so there may be a more muted response more focused on getting companies to more rapidly unwind their supply chains from China. Also, in the meantime there may be more proactive responses from the government to prevent this happening in other sectors (e.g. the Senator Casey/Cornyn outbound investment screening proposal) https://www.casey.senate.gov/news/releases/casey-and-cornyn-release-a-joint-statement-on-national-critical-capabilities-defense-act https://www.casey.senate.gov/news/releases/casey-and-cornyn-...

fit2rule 5y ago
wollsmoth 5y ago
yeah, I'm not even sure how long we can really squeeze Russia.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  If we=USA then I think we can squeeze Russia forever, if we=USA/EU/West then indeed, it will be tougher to pull off
  - wollsmoth 5y ago
    Yeah, more or less. Rising commodity prices will eventually hit Americans though and they may not be tolerant of this in the long term.
phoehne 5y ago
It may not even be a sanctions choice by the US. It could be that China decides that making Macs, iPhones, and iPads does not align with "common prosperity." They could make up a new law that says Apple devices need special export inspections, only available on February 30. It would have an outsized effect on the US Markets because Apple is such a large part of both the indexes (which grab headlines) but also their portfolios. (Either directly or through funds they hold). It's not going to cripple the US, but it would inflict pain. Most likely more pain than the Chinese leadership would feel.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  Yeah, I'm highly skeptical that China would do that to one of the largest companies in the world, not because they probably couldn't withstand it, but because of the general market signal it would create. Sentiment is already turning or has turned negative on China but it's a big market so many companies persist, but imagine if the biggest company in the world can just be shut out? Many companies would probably stay, but it'd just be to milk what they can out of the market, I doubt any would really invest significant resources in China anymore.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

toast0 5y ago

What phone company or computer company would be able to build their product without their Chinese supply chain? Russia aimed to be sanctions proof by having a largely self-sufficient industry. China aims to be sanctions proof by being critical in all supply chains. The US aims to be sanction proof by controlling the sanctions regime.

fsflover 5y ago
> What phone company or computer company would be able to build their product without their Chinese supply chain? https://puri.sm/products/librem-5-usa https://puri.sm/products/librem-5-usa
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
China doesn't make that many critical parts for phones. Excluding Taiwan - does China have a monopoly on anything important beside assembly for Apple? Samsung would not be screwed.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  Batteries?
- uuyi 5y ago
  It’s not about parts but raw materials. It’s far more expensive to import materials, make parts and assemble post import than assemble everything at source and then export it.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  Literally the vast majority of the critical mineral supply chain that is needed as inputs for most modern electronics, EVs, etc. although the US gov is finally waking up and doing something about it. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/22/fact-sheet-securing-a-made-in-america-supply-chain-for-critical-minerals/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...
ksec 5y ago

lkxijlewlf 5y ago

Does any place outside of China manufacture electronic parts (resisters, capacitors, etc)? Even if Apple moved most of their manufacturing to India, I think they'd still be dependent on China (as would everyone else).

mtts 5y ago
Yes. In fact the stuff you list doesn’t come from China at all but Indonesia. More complicated components come from Malaysia and Thailand, as do hard drives and the like.

md_ 5y ago

"If"? Like...forced sterilization and "re-education" camps for religious and ethnic minorities? https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/china-xinjiang-prison-state-uighur-detention-camps-prisoner-testimony https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/china-xin... Spying on Uighers abroad and holding their innocent relatives at home hostage so that they will not agitate against human rights abuses? https://harpers.org/archive/2022/04/the-spies-next-door-uighur-exiles-turkey-intimidation/ https://harpers.org/archive/2022/04/the-spies-next-door-uigh... Or employing slave labor in factories in Western supply chains? https://www.aspi.org.au/report/uyghurs-sale https://www.aspi.org.au/report/uyghurs-sale

trasz 5y ago
newaccount74 5y ago
I think the worst part is where they murder political prisoners by removing their organs to transplant them to rich people from abroad. Horrible things have been going on in China for decades but nobody dares say anything because we are dependent on their manufacturing.
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago
  Woah, hadn't heard about the murdering political prisoners and doing transplants, can you share a link to where I can read more?
  - md_ 5y ago
    I think a reference to https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/china-is-harvesting-organs-from-detainees-uk-tribunal-concludes https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/china-is-harve....
mort96 5y ago
If your argument is that we ought to be much more harsh against China due to their treatment of their population, then yeah, that's fair. All the stuff you mention, and more, is pretty horrific and deserving of some kind of response. However, historically, it doesn't seem like the imperial core enacts aggressive foreign policy purely for the benefit of the people in a country. Sanctioning China would be against the imperial core's geopolitical and financial interests at the moment, which means it won't happen, even though China's actions are ethically horrific. GP's "if" refers to if China does something which makes countries in the core actually sanction China. If I'm wrong, please correct me, it would be interesting to see cases where the core enacts sanctions against its own geopolitical, ideological or financial interests in an attempt to benefit some suppressed group of people. I'm not an expert on the topic, just casually interested.

memish 5y ago

Who would be hurt more by that? China or Apple?