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But mass adoption of EVs, percentage wise, is absolutely required. I don't see how the alternative of keeping ICE vehicles is sustainable.

by jhgb 5y ago

lm28469 5y ago
Neither thermic nor electric vehicles are sustainable with our current usage. Let's pretend you don't know about cars and someone comes to pitch you this idea: "We'll make a 3 tonnes metal box, with a 1 tonne battery, that will on average only transport about 80kg of human being from A to B, we'll need about 1B of them". Who on earth would believe this is the optimal solution to a green future ?
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  You do realize that people aren't trying to make heavy vehicles, but that weight is imposed by physical and economic constraints. EV manufacturers try very hard to minimize weight. But anyway, it makes no sense to criticize EVs in a vacuum--tell us all about your miracle solution! Are we going to treat every urban community like a dense metropolis? Or are we going to close down urban communities and force everyone into fewer concrete jungles? And how much do you reckon your solution will cost?
  - fluctor 5y ago
    Some of the size forcing is for "safety," that is, we have larger vehicles because they need to survive crash tests at high speeds. But if you have a city that decides they want to set all speed limits at 20 mph and design streets so that it's physically very difficult to exceed that speed, you can get away with much smaller vehicles (no vehicles over a certain weight allowed within city limits, for example). Not every place needs to be a "dense metropolis," but designing everyone's lives and modes of transportation around the needs to people who live 20 or more miles from the nearest city doesn't make a ton of sense. Too often this discussion is presented as either/or when it can be both/and.
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      > Some of the size forcing is for "safety," that is, we have larger vehicles because they need to survive crash tests at high speeds. But if you have a city that decides they want to set all speed limits at 20 mph and design streets so that it's physically very difficult to exceed that speed, you can get away with much smaller vehicles (no vehicles over a certain weight allowed within city limits, for example). But people need their vehicles to drive on highways as well as side streets (where 20mph is more reasonable). There's a reason EVs began with smaller, low-capacity batteries that were suitable for the kind of driving you're describing, but grew larger because people want to be able to travel between cities effectively. > Not every place needs to be a "dense metropolis," but designing everyone's lives and modes of transportation around the needs to people who live 20 or more miles from the nearest city doesn't make a ton of sense. Too often this discussion is presented as either/or when it can be both/and. I agree that we shouldn't try to treat urban areas like rural areas or vice versa. That said, I don't think we're optimizing for rural areas (I've lived in both kinds of environments). Specifically, I think cities can do more to optimize for their own conditions both without imposing on people in suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas and without necessitating the creation of "side-street-only" cars. Specifically, I think this looks like "better planning"--invest in more, faster, and higher-throughput highways so people can get around quickly without relying on side-streets. Side-streets should be slow and pedestrian-friendly, highways should be fast and car-friendly. Get cars off side-streets and onto highways. Note that this is eminently compatible with more investment in public transit and cycling infrastructure (fewer cars on the streets = more room for bus and bike lanes). I reject the premise--we aren't "designing everyone's lives around the needs of people who live 20+ miles from the nearest city". People who live in cities can (and do!) buy fewer, smaller cars than people who live in rural areas. I think you're right that cities can do more to optimize for their own needs, but I think this looks more like "planning" than building cars that are only safe/useful on side streets. With respect to planning, I think cities can do a lot more to make fast, high-throughput highways so people aren't using city streets for commuting and thus city streets can be slower and more pedestrian friendly. This is also compatible with investing more in public transit and cycling.
      - jhgb 5y ago
- jhgb 5y ago
  I'm not sure where you got that we need 1B of such vehicles. We won't. But of all the vehicles that will remain, I'm willing to bet that almost all will be EVs. Even if there will be a fraction of vehicles on the roads compared to today, they still won't be using ICEs. Hence, mass adoption of EVs is inevitable either way.
mupuff1234 5y ago
I've been wondering if hybrids aren't actually better than full EVs, since I assume that 95% of trips are short enough to be covered by a hybrid's electric capacity while also minimizing the battery waste by not having gigantic batteries.
- jhgb 5y ago
  It would make sense to have a range extender as an option. But real-world statistics about PHEV usage patterns have been discouraging. (https://www.electrive.com/2020/09/28/phev-real-world-consumption-2-4-times-higher-than-approved/ https://www.electrive.com/2020/09/28/phev-real-world-consump...)

But mass adoption of EVs, percentage wise, is absolutely required. I don't see how the alternative of keeping ICE vehicles is sustainable.

by jhgb 5y ago

But mass adoption of EVs, percentage wise, is absolutely required. I don't see how the alternative of keeping ICE vehicles is sustainable.

lm28469 5y ago

Neither thermic nor electric vehicles are sustainable with our current usage. Let's pretend you don't know about cars and someone comes to pitch you this idea: "We'll make a 3 tonnes metal box, with a 1 tonne battery, that will on average only transport about 80kg of human being from A to B, we'll need about 1B of them". Who on earth would believe this is the optimal solution to a green future ?

throwaway894345 5y ago
You do realize that people aren't trying to make heavy vehicles, but that weight is imposed by physical and economic constraints. EV manufacturers try very hard to minimize weight. But anyway, it makes no sense to criticize EVs in a vacuum--tell us all about your miracle solution! Are we going to treat every urban community like a dense metropolis? Or are we going to close down urban communities and force everyone into fewer concrete jungles? And how much do you reckon your solution will cost?
- fluctor 5y ago
  Some of the size forcing is for "safety," that is, we have larger vehicles because they need to survive crash tests at high speeds. But if you have a city that decides they want to set all speed limits at 20 mph and design streets so that it's physically very difficult to exceed that speed, you can get away with much smaller vehicles (no vehicles over a certain weight allowed within city limits, for example). Not every place needs to be a "dense metropolis," but designing everyone's lives and modes of transportation around the needs to people who live 20 or more miles from the nearest city doesn't make a ton of sense. Too often this discussion is presented as either/or when it can be both/and.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    > Some of the size forcing is for "safety," that is, we have larger vehicles because they need to survive crash tests at high speeds. But if you have a city that decides they want to set all speed limits at 20 mph and design streets so that it's physically very difficult to exceed that speed, you can get away with much smaller vehicles (no vehicles over a certain weight allowed within city limits, for example). But people need their vehicles to drive on highways as well as side streets (where 20mph is more reasonable). There's a reason EVs began with smaller, low-capacity batteries that were suitable for the kind of driving you're describing, but grew larger because people want to be able to travel between cities effectively. > Not every place needs to be a "dense metropolis," but designing everyone's lives and modes of transportation around the needs to people who live 20 or more miles from the nearest city doesn't make a ton of sense. Too often this discussion is presented as either/or when it can be both/and. I agree that we shouldn't try to treat urban areas like rural areas or vice versa. That said, I don't think we're optimizing for rural areas (I've lived in both kinds of environments). Specifically, I think cities can do more to optimize for their own conditions both without imposing on people in suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas and without necessitating the creation of "side-street-only" cars. Specifically, I think this looks like "better planning"--invest in more, faster, and higher-throughput highways so people can get around quickly without relying on side-streets. Side-streets should be slow and pedestrian-friendly, highways should be fast and car-friendly. Get cars off side-streets and onto highways. Note that this is eminently compatible with more investment in public transit and cycling infrastructure (fewer cars on the streets = more room for bus and bike lanes). I reject the premise--we aren't "designing everyone's lives around the needs of people who live 20+ miles from the nearest city". People who live in cities can (and do!) buy fewer, smaller cars than people who live in rural areas. I think you're right that cities can do more to optimize for their own needs, but I think this looks more like "planning" than building cars that are only safe/useful on side streets. With respect to planning, I think cities can do a lot more to make fast, high-throughput highways so people aren't using city streets for commuting and thus city streets can be slower and more pedestrian friendly. This is also compatible with investing more in public transit and cycling.
    - jhgb 5y ago
jhgb 5y ago
I'm not sure where you got that we need 1B of such vehicles. We won't. But of all the vehicles that will remain, I'm willing to bet that almost all will be EVs. Even if there will be a fraction of vehicles on the roads compared to today, they still won't be using ICEs. Hence, mass adoption of EVs is inevitable either way.

mupuff1234 5y ago

I've been wondering if hybrids aren't actually better than full EVs, since I assume that 95% of trips are short enough to be covered by a hybrid's electric capacity while also minimizing the battery waste by not having gigantic batteries.

jhgb 5y ago
It would make sense to have a range extender as an option. But real-world statistics about PHEV usage patterns have been discouraging. (https://www.electrive.com/2020/09/28/phev-real-world-consumption-2-4-times-higher-than-approved/ https://www.electrive.com/2020/09/28/phev-real-world-consump...)