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> By the way, OTAN is a defensive alliance. Small useless nitpick, it's called NATO in English. > I don't believe in a second of a nuclear escalation, escape

> By the way, OTAN is a defensive alliance. Small useless nitpick, it's called NATO in English. > I don't believe in a second of a nuclear escalation, escape on one matter: Crimea. It's an Ukrainian territory but Russians may go bersek if we retake it. But let's kick Putin out of Dombass and Transnistria. It's a matter of water - strategic access to the Black sea, and actually having water in Crimea for food and drinking. I don't think "leave Putin with just Crimea" works either, it's long term unsustainable. Potable water access issues are always ugly, and often lead to instability, like the conflicts that happen in the Palestine region (most of them, at least partially water related), or the current issues plaging Egypt and Ethiopia (disputes over the use of the Nile's water). Russia is not a rich country and can't do the equivalent of the Berlin airlift to relive Crimea of water issues if, say, the North Crimean Canal closes again.

FrenchAmerican 5y ago
Yes, NATO of course, I often get lost between my languages. I had no idea of the water dimension of the Crimean issue. Btw, just to be clear, I'm not at all at ease with the very idea of leaving Crimea to Putin: it's an Ukrainian territory. Indeed, the water issue would inevitably lead to a new conflict later. I'm very afraid of the possibility that the democracies have not sent enough weapons to Ukraine for the coming operations. I doubt Russians will make the same mistakes again. Obviously, they are taking their time to reorganize ; I guess that also give time to Ukrainians to prepare and to move the newly delivered weapons to the front. I also brace for a very possible victory of the far-right candidate to the French throne - since we French basically elect a temporary monarch with very large powers without the decent level of checks and balance. That candidate would a new Orban among the EU and NATO. She is a typical populist, but Macron is, to be fair, the lesson-giving super bright guy which policies favor the bourgeoisie and the wealthy. It's a nightmare, really.

FrenchAmerican 5y ago

Yes, NATO of course, I often get lost between my languages. I had no idea of the water dimension of the Crimean issue. Btw, just to be clear, I'm not at all at ease with the very idea of leaving Crimea to Putin: it's an Ukrainian territory. Indeed, the water issue would inevitably lead to a new conflict later. I'm very afraid of the possibility that the democracies have not sent enough weapons to Ukraine for the coming operations. I doubt Russians will make the same mistakes again. Obviously, they are taking their time to reorganize ; I guess that also give time to Ukrainians to prepare and to move the newly delivered weapons to the front. I also brace for a very possible victory of the far-right candidate to the French throne - since we French basically elect a temporary monarch with very large powers without the decent level of checks and balance. That candidate would a new Orban among the EU and NATO. She is a typical populist, but Macron is, to be fair, the lesson-giving super bright guy which policies favor the bourgeoisie and the wealthy. It's a nightmare, really.