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The problem with contact tracing is that it's hard to do at large scale. And the effects of the contact tracing are preventative quarantines which are also harm

The problem with contact tracing is that it's hard to do at large scale. And the effects of the contact tracing are preventative quarantines which are also harmful to the economy. Testing is a good one though, I have some issues with the masks (due to illness in the past) and I often agree with colleagues not to wear one but test instead. I might even do that when they're not mandatory anymore (hopefully soon). But we have many viral infections we come into contact with on a daily basis. We can't avoid them all :) > Not to mention, unless we're sending sick kids to school, parents will be in deep shit. This is exactly caused by the quarantines and lockdowns, not by the virus itself. > And on a personal preference level, I would much rather have a week or two of lockdown every year on average But it won't be a week or two of lockdown. The Netherlands had a major lockdown this christmas for Omikron, they took it too seriously as they wanted to wait for confirmation it was not going to overload the health system. After they lifted things, it came right up (though didn't overload the health system, as per experience from other countries). With the contagiousness at the high level of Omikron, a lockdown will only be effective for its duration. We'll be in a lockdown nightmare.

sudosysgen 5y ago
I think you're missing the point about lockdowns. I will give you an interesting datapoint : this is the first time that Shanghai has come under lockdown. The majority of China did not have to go through any lockdown at all. When you lockdown earlier and for longer, paradoxically, you spend orders of magnitude less time in aggregate under lockdown. You're from the Netherlands, and I'm Canadian - we both spent much more time under lockdown than the average Chinese citizen. And their goverment isn't massively more capable than ours and is definitely capable of fucking up, it's just we chose a course of action that leads to more lockdowns and more COVID. We do not come into contact with viral infections with a significant risk of death and that reinfect you in mere months every day. Actually, I struggle to think of any other virus with these. > But it won't be a week or two of lockdown. The Netherlands had a major lockdown this christmas for Omikron, they took it too seriously as they wanted to wait for confirmation it was not going to overload the health system. After they lifted things, it came right up (though didn't overload the health system, as per experience from other countries). It will be a week or two. The way the Netherlands locked down is ineffective, because they waited way too long. If you wait untill the health system is on the verge of collapsing every time, you will paradoxically have many more lockdowns. If you lockdown cities, or even neighborhoods, as early as there are a few cases, the majority of the country will never even be locked down. > With the contagiousness at the high level of Omikron, a lockdown will only be effective for its duration. We'll be in a lockdown nightmare. That's simply not true. You get that impression because me and you both lived through very poorly designed lockdowns from the very beginning of the pandemic, which all ended up the same way. Omicron presents a more arduous version of the same problem - if you lockdown too late, you have to lockdown longer. If you lockdown too short, you will have to lockdown again. The difference with Omicron is that lockdowns have to be engaged earlier, that's all.
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  I don't think a lockdown (and more important China's Zero-Covid goal!) is working with Omicron. The problem is that a complete lockdown like China does is not tenable in Europe. We won't let ourselves be locked in without access to food, or let the government come in and kill our pets. Even the latter alone would lead to extreme unrest (and rightly so, I won't let my pets be killed for an illness they can recover from!) So it will keep spreading through shops, keep re-entering from outher countries. We won't stamp it out. In Europe we're just too integrated for this approach to work. We have to give up way too much to justify killing a virus as mild as covid is now. In a country without liberty like China it is possible but you see their society groaning under the strain already. You can see the same at other countries that were successful isolating them at first (e.g. Australia, New Zealand) due to the benefits of being an island nation. But with the latest mutations they have been unable to keep them out. Zero-covid is just over. > It will be a week or two. The way the Netherlands locked down is ineffective, because they waited way too long. If you wait untill the health system is on the verge of collapsing every time, you will paradoxically have many more lockdowns. The Netherlands were just being stupid. There was no risk of their health system collapsing, they just refused to acknowledge the other countries' experience and kept calculating with data from the delta-era.

sudosysgen 5y ago

I think you're missing the point about lockdowns. I will give you an interesting datapoint : this is the first time that Shanghai has come under lockdown. The majority of China did not have to go through any lockdown at all. When you lockdown earlier and for longer, paradoxically, you spend orders of magnitude less time in aggregate under lockdown. You're from the Netherlands, and I'm Canadian - we both spent much more time under lockdown than the average Chinese citizen. And their goverment isn't massively more capable than ours and is definitely capable of fucking up, it's just we chose a course of action that leads to more lockdowns and more COVID. We do not come into contact with viral infections with a significant risk of death and that reinfect you in mere months every day. Actually, I struggle to think of any other virus with these. > But it won't be a week or two of lockdown. The Netherlands had a major lockdown this christmas for Omikron, they took it too seriously as they wanted to wait for confirmation it was not going to overload the health system. After they lifted things, it came right up (though didn't overload the health system, as per experience from other countries). It will be a week or two. The way the Netherlands locked down is ineffective, because they waited way too long. If you wait untill the health system is on the verge of collapsing every time, you will paradoxically have many more lockdowns. If you lockdown cities, or even neighborhoods, as early as there are a few cases, the majority of the country will never even be locked down. > With the contagiousness at the high level of Omikron, a lockdown will only be effective for its duration. We'll be in a lockdown nightmare. That's simply not true. You get that impression because me and you both lived through very poorly designed lockdowns from the very beginning of the pandemic, which all ended up the same way. Omicron presents a more arduous version of the same problem - if you lockdown too late, you have to lockdown longer. If you lockdown too short, you will have to lockdown again. The difference with Omicron is that lockdowns have to be engaged earlier, that's all.

GekkePrutser 5y ago
I don't think a lockdown (and more important China's Zero-Covid goal!) is working with Omicron. The problem is that a complete lockdown like China does is not tenable in Europe. We won't let ourselves be locked in without access to food, or let the government come in and kill our pets. Even the latter alone would lead to extreme unrest (and rightly so, I won't let my pets be killed for an illness they can recover from!) So it will keep spreading through shops, keep re-entering from outher countries. We won't stamp it out. In Europe we're just too integrated for this approach to work. We have to give up way too much to justify killing a virus as mild as covid is now. In a country without liberty like China it is possible but you see their society groaning under the strain already. You can see the same at other countries that were successful isolating them at first (e.g. Australia, New Zealand) due to the benefits of being an island nation. But with the latest mutations they have been unable to keep them out. Zero-covid is just over. > It will be a week or two. The way the Netherlands locked down is ineffective, because they waited way too long. If you wait untill the health system is on the verge of collapsing every time, you will paradoxically have many more lockdowns. The Netherlands were just being stupid. There was no risk of their health system collapsing, they just refused to acknowledge the other countries' experience and kept calculating with data from the delta-era.