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"COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once" Unfortunately evidence seems to indicate that everyone getting once is also not very effective, the re

"COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once" Unfortunately evidence seems to indicate that everyone getting once is also not very effective, the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron. You can find lots of studies with different numbers but none of them are good. China's behaviour with respect to vaccines is very strange, they could mandate vaccination very easily, they could also relent and import mRNA vaccines but they don't. It seems like even mandating their very poor vaccines would be helping their situation a lot if it had been done months ago - availability has not been enough.

ars 5y ago
> the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity. But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters. Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if you can, in that order) prevent hospitalizations and death.
- hedgehog 5y ago
  Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.
  - ars 5y ago
    "Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 It was literally the first hit on google. And it's well known that infection is much more protective than vaccination (although riskier).
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      Who you're replying to specifically cited Omicron. The study you posted is older than Omicron. There is evidence Omicron and Delta are much better at reinfection.
      - ars 5y ago
        According to https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2200133 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2200133 Omicron has 56.0% protection but: "Among the patients with reinfection, progression to severe Covid-19 occurred in one patient with the alpha variant, in two patients with the beta variant, in no patients with the delta variant, and in two patients with the omicron variant. None of the reinfections progressed to critical or fatal Covid-19. The effectiveness with respect to severe, critical, or fatal Covid-19 was estimated to be 69.4% (95% CI, −143.6 to 96.2) against the alpha variant, 88.0% (95% CI, 50.7 to 97.1) against the beta variant, 100% (95% CI, 43.3 to 100) against the delta variant, and 87.8% (95% CI, 47.5 to 97.1) against the omicron variant." So for the metric that matters (deaths), Omicron is no different.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        Deaths is not the metric that matters. Transmission is. It doesn't matter if the chance of death or severe illness is divided by 5, if you end up being reinfected 10 times over a few years.
    - somewhereoutth 5y ago
      No, infection is not more protective than vaccination. Vaccination is much more consistent than infection - not least because the vaccine is not packaged with immune suppressing elements.
      - peteradio 5y ago
        Consistency refers to the spread not the mean. For instance, you could have a vaccine performing uniformly poorly relative to a prior infection and that sure would be consistent.
- legulere 5y ago
  So far I heard the other way around: A natural infection also always means an attack on the immune system by the virus. Also if you have a very light infection your body often doesn't create as many anti-bodies as with a vaccine.
- JamisonM 4y ago
  Vaccines are clearly better than natural immunity I don't know why you think the opposite, the data is public and available for you to view. We agree that vaccines plus natural immunity are better still. Lockdowns forever are not required, inducements to reach 100% vaccination do seem to be required, and "availability" has not been enough to achieve that in most jurisdictions, unfortunately.

ars 5y ago

> the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity. But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters. Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if you can, in that order) prevent hospitalizations and death.

hedgehog 5y ago
Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.
- ars 5y ago
  "Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 It was literally the first hit on google. And it's well known that infection is much more protective than vaccination (although riskier).
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Who you're replying to specifically cited Omicron. The study you posted is older than Omicron. There is evidence Omicron and Delta are much better at reinfection.
    - ars 5y ago
      According to https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2200133 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2200133 Omicron has 56.0% protection but: "Among the patients with reinfection, progression to severe Covid-19 occurred in one patient with the alpha variant, in two patients with the beta variant, in no patients with the delta variant, and in two patients with the omicron variant. None of the reinfections progressed to critical or fatal Covid-19. The effectiveness with respect to severe, critical, or fatal Covid-19 was estimated to be 69.4% (95% CI, −143.6 to 96.2) against the alpha variant, 88.0% (95% CI, 50.7 to 97.1) against the beta variant, 100% (95% CI, 43.3 to 100) against the delta variant, and 87.8% (95% CI, 47.5 to 97.1) against the omicron variant." So for the metric that matters (deaths), Omicron is no different.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        Deaths is not the metric that matters. Transmission is. It doesn't matter if the chance of death or severe illness is divided by 5, if you end up being reinfected 10 times over a few years.
  - somewhereoutth 5y ago
    No, infection is not more protective than vaccination. Vaccination is much more consistent than infection - not least because the vaccine is not packaged with immune suppressing elements.
    - peteradio 5y ago
      Consistency refers to the spread not the mean. For instance, you could have a vaccine performing uniformly poorly relative to a prior infection and that sure would be consistent.
legulere 5y ago
So far I heard the other way around: A natural infection also always means an attack on the immune system by the virus. Also if you have a very light infection your body often doesn't create as many anti-bodies as with a vaccine.
JamisonM 4y ago
Vaccines are clearly better than natural immunity I don't know why you think the opposite, the data is public and available for you to view. We agree that vaccines plus natural immunity are better still. Lockdowns forever are not required, inducements to reach 100% vaccination do seem to be required, and "availability" has not been enough to achieve that in most jurisdictions, unfortunately.