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There's no point in doing this, COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once. You just want to slow it down not to overwhelm hospitals and that it's.

by ars 5y ago

There's no point in doing this, COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once. You just want to slow it down not to overwhelm hospitals and that it's. And if you immunize everyone there's very few hospitalizations. Just make vaccines available - you don't even need to mandate them, most people will take them, and that's good enough.

benjaminwootton 5y ago
Such pragmatism left the room in February 2020.
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  In fact politicisation entered the room in 2020 - from then on it became an uphill struggle to put in place even the most basic public health interventions.
ceejayoz 5y ago
Part of the problem is China's vaccine is substantially less effective than the mRNA ones. "Just make vaccines available" works less for them than it does in, say, the US.
- eric-hu 5y ago
  Another part of the problem is that China forbids Chinese citizens from getting foreign made vaccines. They’ve acquired them, but only allow foreigners to get them.
  - wellthatsawrap 5y ago
    [flagged]
  - blablablub 5y ago
    What you wrote is absolutely not true. No one gets foreign vaccines(mrna) in China.
    - eric-hu 5y ago
      It looks like you’re correct: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219245.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219245.shtml I was in Taiwan for the bulk of Covid and the only possible source of a Pfizer vaccine was from China’ Fosun group. It looks like Fosun had millions of doses sitting around for no one in mainland China to take https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-12/billionaire-s-bet-on-pfizer-vaccine-for-china-fails-to-pay-off https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-12/billionai...
- sho_hn 5y ago
  What happened to Fosun licensing the BioNTech mRNA vaccine?
  - blablablub 5y ago
    still waiting for approval in China. I guess it might eventually happen after China approves their own locally made mrna vaccine.
JamisonM 5y ago
"COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once" Unfortunately evidence seems to indicate that everyone getting once is also not very effective, the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron. You can find lots of studies with different numbers but none of them are good. China's behaviour with respect to vaccines is very strange, they could mandate vaccination very easily, they could also relent and import mRNA vaccines but they don't. It seems like even mandating their very poor vaccines would be helping their situation a lot if it had been done months ago - availability has not been enough.
- ars 5y ago
  > the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity. But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters. Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if you can, in that order) prevent hospitalizations and death.
  - hedgehog 5y ago
    Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.
    - ars 5y ago
      "Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 It was literally the first hit on google. And it's well known that infection is much more protective than vaccination (although riskier).
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
GekkePrutser 5y ago
We know that. China knows that.. I bet they're just trying to work on a narrative that doesn't paint the party in a bad light. I think they've kinda painted themselves in a corner. Mind you, zero covid could have worked at the start. If it never left Wuhan it may have worked. But the whole world had to have been on board. And after the first 2 months that ship has sailed forever.
sudosysgen 5y ago
COVID won't stop spreading when everyone gets it at least once. It will continue to reinfect most people, and mutate faster than you can vaccinate. Every few months the vaccines will become less and less effective. Where I live was almost entirely vaccinated, and that didn't stop the virus from overwhelming hospitals, even with lockdowns. Most people had probably already gotten it too by that point. I don't know what's the solution, but there's clearly a point in trying to keep the virus from becoming a permanent strain. The question is if it will be successful. Locking down ~5% of the country is preferable to locking down 100% of the country because a new variant came around and the hospitals are full, so on that basis it's rational if you think it has a chance of actually being successful.
somewhereoutth 5y ago
You mean until everyone gets it again, and again (and again). We don't know the long terms effects of even a single infection, let alone the repeated infections we're allowing ourselves to be exposed to.
- spookthesunset 5y ago
  Probably a similar risk profile to that of every other common respiratory virus…
  - somewhereoutth 5y ago
    Like measles? Smallpox? They are respiratory viruses too
    - GekkePrutser 5y ago
      Measles is a good comparison IMO. It's an extremely contagious virus (even more so than Omicron covid) and can have some serious illness in a small percentage of people. Very similar to covid statistically. Yet we don't lock down at the first sign of a measles outbreak. Where I'm from almost everyone got vaccinated and a lot of kids had it anyway. The one big difference is that an infection seems to convey pretty much lifelong protection. Smallpox is a different thing, very serious but not so contagious so it was easy to stamp out.
      - JamisonM 5y ago
        In the case of a genuine outbreak there has indeed been real lockdowns: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak "The one big difference is that an infection seems to convey pretty much lifelong protection." From Measles? Because COVID-19 infection certainly does not confer lifelong protection! That's real east to look up!

by ars 5y ago

benjaminwootton 5y ago

Such pragmatism left the room in February 2020.

somewhereoutth 5y ago
In fact politicisation entered the room in 2020 - from then on it became an uphill struggle to put in place even the most basic public health interventions.

ceejayoz 5y ago

Part of the problem is China's vaccine is substantially less effective than the mRNA ones. "Just make vaccines available" works less for them than it does in, say, the US.

eric-hu 5y ago
Another part of the problem is that China forbids Chinese citizens from getting foreign made vaccines. They’ve acquired them, but only allow foreigners to get them.
- wellthatsawrap 5y ago
  [flagged]
- blablablub 5y ago
  What you wrote is absolutely not true. No one gets foreign vaccines(mrna) in China.
  - eric-hu 5y ago
    It looks like you’re correct: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219245.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219245.shtml I was in Taiwan for the bulk of Covid and the only possible source of a Pfizer vaccine was from China’ Fosun group. It looks like Fosun had millions of doses sitting around for no one in mainland China to take https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-12/billionaire-s-bet-on-pfizer-vaccine-for-china-fails-to-pay-off https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-12/billionai...
sho_hn 5y ago
What happened to Fosun licensing the BioNTech mRNA vaccine?
- blablablub 5y ago
  still waiting for approval in China. I guess it might eventually happen after China approves their own locally made mrna vaccine.

JamisonM 5y ago

"COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once" Unfortunately evidence seems to indicate that everyone getting once is also not very effective, the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron. You can find lots of studies with different numbers but none of them are good. China's behaviour with respect to vaccines is very strange, they could mandate vaccination very easily, they could also relent and import mRNA vaccines but they don't. It seems like even mandating their very poor vaccines would be helping their situation a lot if it had been done months ago - availability has not been enough.

ars 5y ago
> the reinfection protection of past infection seems to be sub-20% from Omicron So then what? Lockdowns forever? Vaccines are even worse than natural immunity. But the truth is your numbers aren't accurate. Someone who had covid and is reinfected is unlikely to go to the hospital - and that's the only thing that matters. Yes, they will get Omicron, but that doesn't matter. Vaccine or natural immunity (and get both if you can, in that order) prevent hospitalizations and death.
- hedgehog 5y ago
  Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.
  - ars 5y ago
    "Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 It was literally the first hit on google. And it's well known that infection is much more protective than vaccination (although riskier).
    - sudosysgen 5y ago

GekkePrutser 5y ago

We know that. China knows that.. I bet they're just trying to work on a narrative that doesn't paint the party in a bad light. I think they've kinda painted themselves in a corner. Mind you, zero covid could have worked at the start. If it never left Wuhan it may have worked. But the whole world had to have been on board. And after the first 2 months that ship has sailed forever.

sudosysgen 5y ago

COVID won't stop spreading when everyone gets it at least once. It will continue to reinfect most people, and mutate faster than you can vaccinate. Every few months the vaccines will become less and less effective. Where I live was almost entirely vaccinated, and that didn't stop the virus from overwhelming hospitals, even with lockdowns. Most people had probably already gotten it too by that point. I don't know what's the solution, but there's clearly a point in trying to keep the virus from becoming a permanent strain. The question is if it will be successful. Locking down ~5% of the country is preferable to locking down 100% of the country because a new variant came around and the hospitals are full, so on that basis it's rational if you think it has a chance of actually being successful.

somewhereoutth 5y ago

You mean until everyone gets it again, and again (and again). We don't know the long terms effects of even a single infection, let alone the repeated infections we're allowing ourselves to be exposed to.

spookthesunset 5y ago
Probably a similar risk profile to that of every other common respiratory virus…
- somewhereoutth 5y ago
  Like measles? Smallpox? They are respiratory viruses too
  - GekkePrutser 5y ago
    Measles is a good comparison IMO. It's an extremely contagious virus (even more so than Omicron covid) and can have some serious illness in a small percentage of people. Very similar to covid statistically. Yet we don't lock down at the first sign of a measles outbreak. Where I'm from almost everyone got vaccinated and a lot of kids had it anyway. The one big difference is that an infection seems to convey pretty much lifelong protection. Smallpox is a different thing, very serious but not so contagious so it was easy to stamp out.
    - JamisonM 5y ago
      In the case of a genuine outbreak there has indeed been real lockdowns: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak "The one big difference is that an infection seems to convey pretty much lifelong protection." From Measles? Because COVID-19 infection certainly does not confer lifelong protection! That's real east to look up!