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> Obviously we don't want a nuclear war to ever happen. If it does, neither humanity nor civilization will end. Russia could aim all of their nukes at the US an
by nkurz 5y ago
> Obviously we don't want a nuclear war to ever happen. If it does, neither humanity nor civilization will end. Russia could aim all of their nukes at the US and would struggle to kill more than a third of the US population at worst, and that's if their weapons all work and are all accurate. Russia couldn't kill everyone in Texas with their nukes if they wanted to. The vast majority of the rest of the world and its civilizations would continue on just fine.
The linked article is definitely alarmist, but seems to be accurately reflecting the current beliefs of atmospheric scientists. The most recent paper they cite is this one: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030509 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD03...
I've only skimmed it, but it would seem to disagree with your position of no risk to civilization. They are predicting full on nuclear winter: "Despite this, the models agree that a nuclear winter would follow a large-scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia, a result previously found by a large number of diverse but much less sophisticated models in the 1980s."
Can you convince us that we should believe you rather than the atmospheric scientists? I actually do believe you might be right, but you are in the difficult position of having us discard what appears to be the current scientific consensus in favor of what appears to be amateur speculation.