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Russia has plenty of solutions to target Europe, from Iskander intermediate range missiles to submarine launched ones, to gravity bombs or even the new hyperson

by 323 5y ago

Russia has plenty of solutions to target Europe, from Iskander intermediate range missiles to submarine launched ones, to gravity bombs or even the new hypersonic Kinzhal cruise missiles. Also, the whole premise of warheads burning up on reentry is a bit ridiculous. Notice how the most recent North Korea test had an extremely steep trajectory and it worked just fine.

messe 5y ago
> Also, the whole premise of warheads burning up on reentry is a bit ridiculous. Is it? These warheads have to reach a significant fraction of orbital velocity. North Korea's test isn't really relevant here, as we have very little details on the actual test. There's a reason the intermediate range nuclear forces treaty existed. If it was possible for any missile to target europe, then it wouldn't have been necessary in the first place (and would have been nonsensical). When you're travelling that low, at that speed, the only option is really going to be hypersonic glide vehicles. Now the hypersonic missiles are a recent development, and it's not clear how many have been deployed or even constructed. I'm in agreement that they could easily target europe though. The question with Iskander is how many are currently deployed with nuclear warheads, and how long would it take to increase that number? They seem only useful in a first strike, but any attempt to load them with nuclear warheads would likely be seen by NATO intelligence. Gravity bombs, if they're used in a first strike, it won't be a decapitation or even a strategic strike; it'll just be a demonstration of force.
- 323 5y ago
  There are US nukes in Germany, Italy and Turkey. France and UK have their own. It would be pretty weird for Russia to not be ready at all times to target those countries. I don't know with what exactly, but surely they have thought about this. Also, when the US anti-missile shield facility were installed in Poland and Romania Putin explicitly warned that these two countries will be added to the predetermined target list: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-europe-shield-idUSKCN0YI2ER https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-europe-shield-idUS...
  - messe 5y ago
    They’re all targets in a counter-force strike. I’m talking about a strike that’s primarily counter value.
    - 323 5y ago
      If you can hit the force in germany/uk/france you can also hit the value there. And a second strike is kind of by definition counter value. Leaked Soviet era nuclear war with NATO plan: > Vienna was to be hit by two 500-kiloton bombs, while Vicenza, Verona, Padua, and several bases in Italy were to be hit by single 500-kiloton bombs > Stuttgart, Munich, and Nuremberg in West Germany were to be destroyed by nuclear weapons and then captured by the Czechoslovaks and Hungarians. > In Denmark, the first nuclear targets were Roskilde and Esbjerg. Roskilde, while having no military significance, is the second-largest city on Zealand and located close to the Danish capital Copenhagen (the distance from central Copenhagen to Roskilde is only 35 km or 22 mi). It would also be targeted for its cultural and historical significance to break the morale of the Danish population and army. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine

by 323 5y ago

messe 5y ago

> Also, the whole premise of warheads burning up on reentry is a bit ridiculous. Is it? These warheads have to reach a significant fraction of orbital velocity. North Korea's test isn't really relevant here, as we have very little details on the actual test. There's a reason the intermediate range nuclear forces treaty existed. If it was possible for any missile to target europe, then it wouldn't have been necessary in the first place (and would have been nonsensical). When you're travelling that low, at that speed, the only option is really going to be hypersonic glide vehicles. Now the hypersonic missiles are a recent development, and it's not clear how many have been deployed or even constructed. I'm in agreement that they could easily target europe though. The question with Iskander is how many are currently deployed with nuclear warheads, and how long would it take to increase that number? They seem only useful in a first strike, but any attempt to load them with nuclear warheads would likely be seen by NATO intelligence. Gravity bombs, if they're used in a first strike, it won't be a decapitation or even a strategic strike; it'll just be a demonstration of force.

323 5y ago
There are US nukes in Germany, Italy and Turkey. France and UK have their own. It would be pretty weird for Russia to not be ready at all times to target those countries. I don't know with what exactly, but surely they have thought about this. Also, when the US anti-missile shield facility were installed in Poland and Romania Putin explicitly warned that these two countries will be added to the predetermined target list: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-europe-shield-idUSKCN0YI2ER https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-europe-shield-idUS...
- messe 5y ago
  They’re all targets in a counter-force strike. I’m talking about a strike that’s primarily counter value.
  - 323 5y ago
    If you can hit the force in germany/uk/france you can also hit the value there. And a second strike is kind of by definition counter value. Leaked Soviet era nuclear war with NATO plan: > Vienna was to be hit by two 500-kiloton bombs, while Vicenza, Verona, Padua, and several bases in Italy were to be hit by single 500-kiloton bombs > Stuttgart, Munich, and Nuremberg in West Germany were to be destroyed by nuclear weapons and then captured by the Czechoslovaks and Hungarians. > In Denmark, the first nuclear targets were Roskilde and Esbjerg. Roskilde, while having no military significance, is the second-largest city on Zealand and located close to the Danish capital Copenhagen (the distance from central Copenhagen to Roskilde is only 35 km or 22 mi). It would also be targeted for its cultural and historical significance to break the morale of the Danish population and army. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine