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So, hypothetically, if Taiwan's chip manufacturing facilities were lost due to a 'Special Operation', how bad would the world be? Are there enough chip fab fac

So, hypothetically, if Taiwan's chip manufacturing facilities were lost due to a 'Special Operation', how bad would the world be? Are there enough chip fab facilities to cover basic requirements by businesses that don't directly build computers or smartphones? And how badly would computers / smartphones be hit? It feels like all our eggs are in one basket with Taiwan, or is that an incorrect assumption?

kayson 5y ago
It would be disastrous. While TSMC does have a few foundries outside of Taiwan, the company accounts for about a third of total global semiconductor production. Maybe more if you consider just the most advanced process nodes. It's not that we'd lose their particular capacity, since Samsung is a fairly equal competitor, but the overall loss would be catastrophic. Everyone would be in a dire situation, but computers and smartphones would especially be hit hard because they are using the newest nodes. As an example, Apple's SoCs (at least the recent ones) all use TSMC 5nm and that production would just disappear. It's not correct that all our eggs are in one basket. There just aren't enough baskets to accommodate the loss of an entire one. Other players include SMIC, UMC, Global Foundries, and now Intel, but their capacity isn't significant enough to make up for the loss. This is why there is a push both to "second source" production, and to increase production capacity overall, especially in more politically stable geographies. The latter is a huge challenge because it requires a lot of capital and a lot of time.
- calrain 5y ago
  Thanks for your answer! I do hope more fab's are set up around the world, it would be horrible to have to build fabs after just losing 1/3 of the worlds manufacturing capacity, especially as the new fab itself would consume so much semiconductor in its own right.
koffiezet 5y ago
There's a reason the US has a symbolic military presence in Taiwan, most likely even on the Pratas island to train Taiwan defence troops there. It would be the first and obvious strategic target, and taking the otherwise uninhabited island without hitting the potentially present US military personnel would be hard - which should make China at least think twice about making a move against it.

kayson 5y ago

It would be disastrous. While TSMC does have a few foundries outside of Taiwan, the company accounts for about a third of total global semiconductor production. Maybe more if you consider just the most advanced process nodes. It's not that we'd lose their particular capacity, since Samsung is a fairly equal competitor, but the overall loss would be catastrophic. Everyone would be in a dire situation, but computers and smartphones would especially be hit hard because they are using the newest nodes. As an example, Apple's SoCs (at least the recent ones) all use TSMC 5nm and that production would just disappear. It's not correct that all our eggs are in one basket. There just aren't enough baskets to accommodate the loss of an entire one. Other players include SMIC, UMC, Global Foundries, and now Intel, but their capacity isn't significant enough to make up for the loss. This is why there is a push both to "second source" production, and to increase production capacity overall, especially in more politically stable geographies. The latter is a huge challenge because it requires a lot of capital and a lot of time.

calrain 5y ago
Thanks for your answer! I do hope more fab's are set up around the world, it would be horrible to have to build fabs after just losing 1/3 of the worlds manufacturing capacity, especially as the new fab itself would consume so much semiconductor in its own right.

koffiezet 5y ago

There's a reason the US has a symbolic military presence in Taiwan, most likely even on the Pratas island to train Taiwan defence troops there. It would be the first and obvious strategic target, and taking the otherwise uninhabited island without hitting the potentially present US military personnel would be hard - which should make China at least think twice about making a move against it.