3 ms·
The main article cited here [1] just runs a climate model assuming that a nuclear war would put 150 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Where did this assumption
by credit_guy 5y ago
The main article cited here [1] just runs a climate model assuming that a nuclear war would put 150 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Where did this assumption come from? From here:
"Turco et al. [1990] give a range of 20– 290 Tg of smoke injection over the Northern Hemisphere, and our 150 Tg case is just in the middle of this range."
In case terra-grams is not your favorite unit of mass, you can mentally exchange it for MT = mega tons. The Pinatubo eruption for comparison put 20 Mt of soot in the stratosphere. As far as weather or climate are concerned, it went basically unnoticed.
What else put a lot of soot in the atmosphere? Saddam after Gulf War 1. Not much happened then either. So much of a non-event it was, that Carl Sagan (one of the co-authors of the aforementioned 1990 Turco paper) conceded that their nuclear winter prediction was wrong [2]
"It was pitch black at noon and temperatures dropped 4–6° C over the Persian Gulf, but not much smoke reached stratospheric altitudes and Asia was spared."
[1] http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.p...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Kuwait_wells_in_the_first_Gulf_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Kuwait_wells_in...