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This is not correct - "Consider what the logic of the Eurodollar system implies. Global financial markets and the global economy rely on the common standard of
by cturner 5y ago
This is not correct - "Consider what the logic of the Eurodollar system implies. Global financial markets and the global economy rely on the common standard of the USD for pricing, accounting, trading, and deal making. Imagine a world with a hundred different currencies – or even a dozen: it would be hugely problematic to manage, and would not allow anywhere near the level of integration we currently enjoy"
1. It is common to use USD because it is convenient, but it is not a standard. There is no structure that forces it.
2. The world does have dozens of liquid currencies already. Banks do offer rates on them. And banks do trade in them without the USD being in play.
3. It is simply not true that the current system of floating exchange rates would fail to function without the USD.
The author moves on to talking about it being a privilege to be a reserve currency. It is not a privilege to be the reserve currency - countries generally go out of their way to avoid it happening - the Swiss central bank headed it off within the last ten years. Patrick Boyle's recent video /The Weaponization Of The Dollar/ touches on this in the last few minutes.
I stopped reading here.
The concept of Eurodollars (US-denominated debt outside the reach of US foreign policy) has been effectively obsolete in the developed world for decades.
Any bank who has a balance sheet large enough to be involved in significant trading operations (e.g. operating as a top-level general clearing member at a clearing house, or acting as a prime broker for foreign exchange transfers) is also able to qualify for an account with the US central bank. This gives them access to cheap lending (free money).
When you take on this membership, you sign up to align with aspects of US foreign policy. And not just for stuff you do that is denominated in USD - it applies to all your business globally.
A recent example of this - Deutsche Bank got fined for money laundering done by Danske's Estonian Branch. Danske were operating on DB's balance sheet, which means that DB had failed to ensure that their balance sheet use aligned with US standards on money laundering, so DB got fined in the US even though they had no direct hand in the wrong-doing.
It is these arrangements that allow the US to be so effective in launching sanctions against other countries. Consider how Trump decided to go after Iran even though European countries wanted to stick by the Obama-era deal, and how thorough those sanctions have been.
Is it possible to have a top-tier western bank who choses not to have a relationship with the US central bank? Hypothetically, yes, but who would do such a thing? Such a bank would lose access to cheap lending in the world's largest economy and would lose economies of scale.
It is not the USD that is powerful, it is the US. The US is a vast economy with a strong rule of law tradition. Common use of USD is a side-effect of that.
- skippyboxedhero 5y agoIt is more complex than being obsolete. The Eurodollar market came into being because of Reg Q, which capped the interest that banks could pay. As interest rates rose through the 1960s, this cap became effective (and banks starting losing deposits) and US banks opened branches in Europe so they could acquire USD deposits at higher rates, often from institutions in the US (the historical account given in the pdf is wrong, it was nothing to do with the Marshall Plan, clearly the author just read Wikipedia, US started lending internationally in the 20s and was a huge creditor to Germany). Also, lending offshore was a way to get around the limits on lending introduced by the Fed (again, this is complex but the policy instrument in the late 60s was free reserves, not interest rates so there were volume limits, although these were circumvented and free reserves was a totally useless in isolation as a policy instrument). Changes in regulation/monetary policy meant the function of the market has changed significantly since then. So Eurodollars tends to just refer offshore dollars, and this is still a huge market. The rest of the article is basically accurate in identifying the huge role that the offshore dollar market plays in the economic cycle, particularly of EMs (the article identifies CBs, the demand for USD there since the mid-90s has grown exponentially...it is huge). The Fed opening swap lines en masse in 2008 (really a continuation of what occurred in the mid-90s) was a turning point.
- TMWNN 5y ago>1. It is common to use USD because it is convenient, but it is not a standard. There is no structure that forces it. [...] >It is not the USD that is powerful, it is the US. The US is a vast economy with a strong rule of law tradition. Common use of USD is a side-effect of that. I wish the legions who, in online discussions of the US dollar (or almost anything US foreign policy/military-related), always bring up how the US dollar/economy's strength is based on the "petrodollar", how the US goes to war to preserve the dollar's role as a reserve currency, how Russia/China/Saudi Arabia can cause the dollar to crash by using another currency, etc., would understand this. No, kids, if Saudi Arabia suddenly started selling all its oil in Euros or Yen on renminbi, the US would not send the Sixth Fleet off its shore, any more than it did so to force KSA to use the US dollar to price its wares in the first place. Saudis (and Russians, and Chinese, and everyone else) use the US dollar because they find that a) using it is more convenient than another hard currency like the Swiss franc or British pound, and b) no one else wants riyals, rubles, or renminbi.