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Since hydrocarbons are used a lot in heating, and so demand is much lower in summer, there might be an opportunity here : hit Russia as strongly as possible wit

Since hydrocarbons are used a lot in heating, and so demand is much lower in summer, there might be an opportunity here : hit Russia as strongly as possible with sanctions, going as far as to break the supply contracts (including for coal !), and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter. (Going to depend on the state of strategic reserves of course, AFAIK they're not in their best shape right now, but still...) A strong strike also makes it less likely for Russia to be able to adapt fast enough using loopholes like these. https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/natural-gas-demand-in-europe-the-impacts-of-covid-19-and-other-influences-in-2020 https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/natural-gas-dem...

unmole 5y ago
> and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter. Sure, Russia will capitulate in a matter of months in the face of economic sanctions. Just like Iraq, Iran, Cuba and North Korea did. Oh, wait.
- BlueTemplar 5y ago
  Probably, but the "stop invading Ukraine" goal is much more achievable too.
- 7speter 5y ago
  North Korea, Cuba, and Iran didn’t get sanctioned for staging an invasion against another country. Iran invaded another country and didn’t have nukes…
  - unmole 5y ago
    The question at hand is the practical impacts of economic sanctions against Russia. Imagining Russia will capitulate by next winter when much weaker regimes managed to hold out for decades is pure fantasy.
  - croes 5y ago
    You mean Iraq invaded another country, after they failed invading Iran with western support.
- sofixa 5y ago
  They all started from a much less developed and connected economy. The average Russian has a smartphone, access to Internet, uses YouTube, etc. It's part of their daily lives and it's no longer there ( or severely restricted). Contrast that with the average Iranian or North Korean, who had limited interactions with "western" products that matter. And that's just for the people and the hope they'll rise up. The Russian economy is also very dependent on imports of high quality stuffs they can't replace. Including their main income source, natural resources ( they use Western tech for sensors and whatnot around extracting and transporting oil, gas, etc.).
  - unmole 5y ago
    Russia can import all the Western consumer products it wants from China in exchange for natural resources. The idea that Russians will rise up because they can't access YouTube is wishful thinking. Stalin was objectively worse. But he still managed to die in office without ever having to face a real uprising. While there might be a degradation in efficiency, it's not like Russia will be unable to keep extracting natural resources without Western assistance. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was able to keep selling oil despite the sanctions.
    - sofixa 5y ago
      I'd like to see them import airliners, iPhones or high precision sensors from China.
      - unmole 5y ago
        I specifically said consumer products. But fine: Russian aircraft industry still remains very capable. It's not unimaginable that they'll be able to keep the planes they stole flying for a while. Sure, there might be crashes like with Iran. But it's not like Russian regime particular cares about the lives of Russian citizens. Last I checked iPhones were made in China. Sure, Apple might decide not to sell them in Russia but that still leaves perfectly serviceable smartphones from the likes of Xaomi, Huawei and Oppo. Iran somehow manages to keep pumping oil and gas despite the sanctions. While there will be obvious loss of productivity, let's stop pretending that the sanctions will somehow grind the Russian economy to a halt or that they will induce regime change.
sitic 5y ago
What if it doesn't work? What if Russia turns off the natural gas? Rolling blackouts everywhere throughout Europe and in the next winter everyone freezes?
- krzyk 5y ago
  Nope, by next winter we will have other sources of gas, maybe not countries will have 100% replacement, but some will.
kkfx 5y ago
You have ingested too much propaganda (no insult, just a cheery consideration): living in France, if the government change from the actual cleptocratic one to a democratic one perhaps re-nationalizing EDF and pushin nuclear enough a small cohort of people who live in homes insulated enough to been able to cool and heat with electricity, owning EVs, can survive without much more issues than a big rise in expenses for anything, food and goods in particular. BUT those who live in classic badly/non insulated homes (vast majority of the population, and vast majority of those who can afford new homes and EVs, have no choice than revolt in a new French Revolution, hoping to do better than the first witch means avoiding putting a new élite in chief like the old one, or exactly the old one with different puppets/public face or starve to death. That not counting a "small" fact like the industry energy needs, since even with nuclear not everything is electric and not everything can be electric in a short time period. The strike of sanctions actually is AGAINST EU interest, far less against Russian interest. The USA/UK want to destroy EU since they know EU was approaching Russia, since that's our best interest [1], and they know the next war in Asia will impede them to keep EU under their boots. A small suggestion: read Klaus Schwab, Mark Carney books for knowing their agenda and Antony Sutton's books to know a bit of history. You'll discovering that you fight/cheering for your own enemy, even if you are from USA. I'm not joking, really. [1] we have the tech but not space nor natural resources, Russia have natural resources, space and a solid enough country to be a fair partner not a dictatorial one like the USA/UK (together since these days are not two countries but a similar élite that act with equal targets against any population, their one included) and a near partner, Europe by nature till the Urals.
- BlueTemplar 5y ago
  I only see here lots of words and no numbers that would actually provide criticism of my plan. Even though I left an opening with the mention of strategic reserves !
  - kkfx 5y ago
    What numbers you have and what numbers you want? I imaging you did know that most cars, trucks, ships, airplanes, many industries run on oil. Cheap oil is obviously a nice thing to have also to build the Green New Deal. I imaging you have seen the food provisioning issues. The skyrocketing prices sold as "caused by the war" but skyrocketed before the war and caused by financial speculation not by the evil Russian bear and so on. What's your plan? Produce fertilizers without gas + without animals since the Green New deal dislike meat? Produce the electric revolution without energy? BTW strategic reserves are for emergencies, using them without a plan to replenish them means consume anything and remain without anything and no plan. I've built my new house few years ago, well insulated, with p.v. etc I do not own EVs because so far a far from being a good idea but when neoliberals will push, because they'll do, gasoline to 4 euros/liter than an EV will be needed and I can recharge it, but industries can't and I do not produce such systems in my garage. While vast majority of population can't even afford a new home.

unmole 5y ago

> and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter. Sure, Russia will capitulate in a matter of months in the face of economic sanctions. Just like Iraq, Iran, Cuba and North Korea did. Oh, wait.

BlueTemplar 5y ago
Probably, but the "stop invading Ukraine" goal is much more achievable too.
7speter 5y ago
North Korea, Cuba, and Iran didn’t get sanctioned for staging an invasion against another country. Iran invaded another country and didn’t have nukes…
- unmole 5y ago
  The question at hand is the practical impacts of economic sanctions against Russia. Imagining Russia will capitulate by next winter when much weaker regimes managed to hold out for decades is pure fantasy.
- croes 5y ago
  You mean Iraq invaded another country, after they failed invading Iran with western support.
sofixa 5y ago
They all started from a much less developed and connected economy. The average Russian has a smartphone, access to Internet, uses YouTube, etc. It's part of their daily lives and it's no longer there ( or severely restricted). Contrast that with the average Iranian or North Korean, who had limited interactions with "western" products that matter. And that's just for the people and the hope they'll rise up. The Russian economy is also very dependent on imports of high quality stuffs they can't replace. Including their main income source, natural resources ( they use Western tech for sensors and whatnot around extracting and transporting oil, gas, etc.).
- unmole 5y ago
  Russia can import all the Western consumer products it wants from China in exchange for natural resources. The idea that Russians will rise up because they can't access YouTube is wishful thinking. Stalin was objectively worse. But he still managed to die in office without ever having to face a real uprising. While there might be a degradation in efficiency, it's not like Russia will be unable to keep extracting natural resources without Western assistance. Iraq under Saddam Hussein was able to keep selling oil despite the sanctions.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    I'd like to see them import airliners, iPhones or high precision sensors from China.
    - unmole 5y ago
      I specifically said consumer products. But fine: Russian aircraft industry still remains very capable. It's not unimaginable that they'll be able to keep the planes they stole flying for a while. Sure, there might be crashes like with Iran. But it's not like Russian regime particular cares about the lives of Russian citizens. Last I checked iPhones were made in China. Sure, Apple might decide not to sell them in Russia but that still leaves perfectly serviceable smartphones from the likes of Xaomi, Huawei and Oppo. Iran somehow manages to keep pumping oil and gas despite the sanctions. While there will be obvious loss of productivity, let's stop pretending that the sanctions will somehow grind the Russian economy to a halt or that they will induce regime change.

sitic 5y ago

What if it doesn't work? What if Russia turns off the natural gas? Rolling blackouts everywhere throughout Europe and in the next winter everyone freezes?

krzyk 5y ago
Nope, by next winter we will have other sources of gas, maybe not countries will have 100% replacement, but some will.

kkfx 5y ago

You have ingested too much propaganda (no insult, just a cheery consideration): living in France, if the government change from the actual cleptocratic one to a democratic one perhaps re-nationalizing EDF and pushin nuclear enough a small cohort of people who live in homes insulated enough to been able to cool and heat with electricity, owning EVs, can survive without much more issues than a big rise in expenses for anything, food and goods in particular. BUT those who live in classic badly/non insulated homes (vast majority of the population, and vast majority of those who can afford new homes and EVs, have no choice than revolt in a new French Revolution, hoping to do better than the first witch means avoiding putting a new élite in chief like the old one, or exactly the old one with different puppets/public face or starve to death. That not counting a "small" fact like the industry energy needs, since even with nuclear not everything is electric and not everything can be electric in a short time period. The strike of sanctions actually is AGAINST EU interest, far less against Russian interest. The USA/UK want to destroy EU since they know EU was approaching Russia, since that's our best interest [1], and they know the next war in Asia will impede them to keep EU under their boots. A small suggestion: read Klaus Schwab, Mark Carney books for knowing their agenda and Antony Sutton's books to know a bit of history. You'll discovering that you fight/cheering for your own enemy, even if you are from USA. I'm not joking, really. [1] we have the tech but not space nor natural resources, Russia have natural resources, space and a solid enough country to be a fair partner not a dictatorial one like the USA/UK (together since these days are not two countries but a similar élite that act with equal targets against any population, their one included) and a near partner, Europe by nature till the Urals.

BlueTemplar 5y ago
I only see here lots of words and no numbers that would actually provide criticism of my plan. Even though I left an opening with the mention of strategic reserves !
- kkfx 5y ago
  What numbers you have and what numbers you want? I imaging you did know that most cars, trucks, ships, airplanes, many industries run on oil. Cheap oil is obviously a nice thing to have also to build the Green New Deal. I imaging you have seen the food provisioning issues. The skyrocketing prices sold as "caused by the war" but skyrocketed before the war and caused by financial speculation not by the evil Russian bear and so on. What's your plan? Produce fertilizers without gas + without animals since the Green New deal dislike meat? Produce the electric revolution without energy? BTW strategic reserves are for emergencies, using them without a plan to replenish them means consume anything and remain without anything and no plan. I've built my new house few years ago, well insulated, with p.v. etc I do not own EVs because so far a far from being a good idea but when neoliberals will push, because they'll do, gasoline to 4 euros/liter than an EV will be needed and I can recharge it, but industries can't and I do not produce such systems in my garage. While vast majority of population can't even afford a new home.