I think being targeted by government or a similar class of advanced threat is not something you should really think about when choosing how you manage passwords

I think being targeted by government or a similar class of advanced threat is not something you should really think about when choosing how you manage passwords, as they will have many ways to target you that don’t involve password compromise at all. Password managers and MFA are about protecting from account compromise by run of the mill cybercriminals. Storing recovery keys on a piece of paper in a safe place is perfectly fine for that class of threats.