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The Backdoor That Keeps Russian Oil Flowing into Europe
- dingleberry 5y agocan the US confiscate the oil?
- unmole 5y agoOn what grounds? And how exactly would that work? Through piracy in international waters? Or will the US liberate ports in Russia, Latvia or the Netherlands?
- Synaesthesia 5y agoThey’ve done that with Venezuela. Like capturing a tanker going from Iran to Venezuela, even though they theoretically should be able to trade.
- pmalynin 5y agoIt’s not piracy if Congress issues a letter of marquee, a power specifically enshrined in section 8 of article 1 of the Constitution.
- rich_sasha 5y agoUS sanctions usually work by denying violators access to US dollar flow, US customers, or just punitive taxes on US operations. So even if they can’t go and grab the oil, they could force the issue: you buy this pretend-not-Russian oil, very well, next time someone pay you in dollars, we take a 75% cut. But in the current climate, they would like to agree that ahead of time with Europeans who are right now dependant on Russia hydrocarbons for dear life.
- DocTomoe 5y agoSounds like an easy way for Europeans to get rid of the dollar as a world currency - they would just doing business with third parties in Euros then. Which would have catastrophic consequences on the US economy.
- rich_sasha 5y agoThe dollar is so engrained in the world economy, it’s a pipe dream. Makes me giggle whenever people ask if the hegemony of the dollar is over. No.
- KarlKemp 5y agoWhat a mad phantasy... Undermining your closest allies' economy to win the war? And, no, it cannot confiscate the oil and, even if it would, most of the energy comes to Europe in the form of natural gas, which is moved by pipeline. So, yes, the US can stop that by bombing Austria or Poland. It's obviously a bad place to be in, strategically, for Europe to be somewhat reliant on Russian fuels. But you should note that current sanctions are already far more costly for EU countries than for the US: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/f/2/csm_mi2022-03-03_handelsembargo-russland_en_b4f3531707.png https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/f/2/csm_mi2022... For Latvia, it's 64x more expensive. Even for Germany, it's factor 10.
- soperj 5y agoWould the US actually overtly bomb one of these countries? Or just support domestic malcontents to bomb the pipelines?
- Zanfa 5y agoAnd still all 3 Baltic states still agree that more significant measures must be imposed immediately, while most of the Western Europe is in denial.
- IAmEveryone 5y agoNobody is denying anything, except people claiming these are easy decisions to make and some approach a totally obvious choice. Finland & Germany have changed more drastically than either one has ever before, and more than anyone else in this situation. The Baltic states can also take a 20 % hit to GDP and they'll be fine, because they make up a small fraction of EU GDP and it would be easy (and right) to help them. The same happening in France, Germany, or Italy will not only hurt citizen in those countries, which would be uncomfortable but not disastrous. It would likely shut down every manufacturing on the continent that's more complicated than fish & chips.
- Zanfa 5y agoAnd that’s exactly why humankind is forever bound to repeat the same mistakes over and over. We have all the information in the world and yet politicians still think that this time is different and you can appease dictators and they’ll just stop. But once they do realize, it’s already too late and it ends up costing many magnitudes more. It’s always about choosing short term gain over long term thinking. Can’t wait to see when global warming really starts to hurt.
- pewpew2020 5y agothey sure can try and if they do .... consequences
- drran 5y agoIf Ukraine will won a case in a USA court, then Russian oil can be confiscated by USA government (for USA government).
- ur-whale 5y agoThe only thing the US is going to achieve is finally putting a wooden stake through the heart of the dollar as the default world trading currency. Now that the world has witnessed them using the dollar as a weapon to deny other countries their sovereignity, they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system. And a good day it will be too.
- refurb 5y agoOh yes, what a great day to have the default international fiat currency to be control by the likes of China.
- postsantum 5y agoBut I thought competition is good and leads to a better outcome for customers?
- refurb 5y agoWhat competition? If India and China align, we'll be dependent upon their currency.
- unmole 5y agoYou do realize that India and China have been locked in a bitter border dispute for decades, right? One that periodically results in casualties on both sides? The idea that China and India are going to meaningfully align can only come from wilful ignorance. Or perhaps the You are either with us or against us binary thinking has become pervasive.
- refurb 5y agoYou do realize was replying to a hypothetical "they (China, India, Iran, Africa) will be working 24/7 to build an alternative payment system"
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- fontenot-jon 5y ago
- webmobdev 5y agoWhat's new? Why are we all pretend acting as if corporates finding and exploiting loopholes is something new? Or that some loopholes are deliberately introduced by the government on behest of some corporate lobbying? While western propaganda may hype about all the crippling sanctions against Russia, and Russian propaganda might to try to reassure everyone that the sanctions do not hurt because of the counter measures they have taken, the political reality in between is that Europe does not currently want Russia as a failed state next door. It is simply not prepared right now to deal with the repercussions. And the US also knows that sanctions cannot achieve their full goals of totally crippling the Russian economy while Russia has support from China and India and other smaller emerging economies. If the US sanctions China and India, as they are legally required to, it would lead to the consolidation of the world's largest market (China and India) with Russia. That is something that both Russia and China really want (something like BRICS, but not just on paper) but what US & Europe do fear.
- ur-whale 5y ago> corporates finding and exploiting loopholes Not sure how preventing half of Europe's economy grinding to a halt and Joe citizen freezing their butt off because of natural gas supply running out can be characterized as "corporates finding loopholes"
- webmobdev 5y agoI addressed that later - governments deliberately introducing loopholes (though I omitted to add, "to protect their own interests") and Europe not wanting Russia to be a failed state.
- docdeek 5y agoI might have missed it but how is the Russian oil being imported to Latvia (EU state, sanctions against Russia) in the first place? Is it because it is not 'sold' until after the blending or some such move?
- unmole 5y agoWhat you're missing is the fact that EU sanctions specifically exempt Russian gas, oil and coal.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- yakorevivan 5y ago
- ComradePhil 5y agoIf India, China and all of Africa find a way to buy Russian oil and then sell theirs to Europe at an inflated price, everyone will be happy.
- taylorius 5y agoBusiness as usual. Make a big noise and bang your fist at the podium, then ignore it behind the scenes. At least Europe won't run out of gas.
- kshacker 5y agoI have been watching the sanction game for 45 days now. Almost every day, we have new sanctions ... bigger and better, and this time we will fix them. For first 2 weeks I ignored it, because it takes time to get your act together (although I am sure CIA has a cookbook somewhere so if they really wanted to do it, they could). But after those 2 weeks, I have lost faith. Everything seems to be a charade and the next round of sanctions get applied after 1) some oligarch is exposed, or 2) some major war crime news comes out. I am sure we can go another 100 rounds of sanctions. Quite sad.
- Shadonototra 5y ago
- whodunnit 5y agoThe CCP is watching this go down with the understanding that if they invade Taiwan the world won’t stop buying their stuff because money matters more than people.
- hyperdunc 5y agoIt's also that Europeans aren't willing to suspend their gas-fuelled comforts.
- ricardobayes 5y agoWell what do you suggest? An 80-year old man in Brussels should freeze to death in their apartment because Russia invaded Ukraine?
- hyperdunc 5y agoThat's not where most of the gas is going. It would have been smart to invest in energy diversity before the war started. Too late for that now.
- HyprMusic 5y agoIt is overwhelmingly used for heating, followed by boiling water and cooking. Please spend 5 minutes googling before throwing out baseless claims. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Energy_consumption_in_households#Energy_consumption_in_households_by_type_of_end-use https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
- empiricus 5y agofrom the link: "final energy consumption in residential sector" - so it does not include the industrial usage
- mdorazio 5y agoFrom the Highlights section in your link: "In 2019, households represented 26% of final energy consumption, or 17% of gross inland energy consumption, in the EU". So 74% of consumption is not households. What am I missing?
- cperciva 5y agoI think it's worth noting that blended fuels aren't simply a way to dodge sanctions. Fuel from different sources has different properties -- most notably Sulfur levels -- and Shell might have been blending them for decades for purely technical reasons.
- croes 5y agoThat's a complicated matter. Without oil and gas Europe's economy will take a massive hit, same with poorer countries that can't afford the higher prices. This money is missing then to help Ukraine. On the other hand what can russia do with the money? If they need components from other countries they are largely cut off from access. If they don't need foreign components then they don't need money they can print it. I think certain sanctions will hit others harder than russia and will actually put leverage in the hand of russia. Without gas steel and glass producer risk of losing their melting tanks, ehat will directly effect weapons production.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoSince hydrocarbons are used a lot in heating, and so demand is much lower in summer, there might be an opportunity here : hit Russia as strongly as possible with sanctions, going as far as to break the supply contracts (including for coal !), and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter. (Going to depend on the state of strategic reserves of course, AFAIK they're not in their best shape right now, but still...) A strong strike also makes it less likely for Russia to be able to adapt fast enough using loopholes like these. https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/natural-gas-demand-in-europe-the-impacts-of-covid-19-and-other-influences-in-2020 https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/natural-gas-dem...
- unmole 5y ago> and hope for a quick capitulation before next winter. Sure, Russia will capitulate in a matter of months in the face of economic sanctions. Just like Iraq, Iran, Cuba and North Korea did. Oh, wait.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoProbably, but the "stop invading Ukraine" goal is much more achievable too.
- 7speter 5y agoNorth Korea, Cuba, and Iran didn’t get sanctioned for staging an invasion against another country. Iran invaded another country and didn’t have nukes…
- Shadonototra 5y agoWell, Ukraine doesn't want things to stop either, otherwise they'd loose the juicy transit royalties they get from their pipeline that delivers gas from russia to EU countries So i suppose it is the same here, EU are way too dependent on fossil fuel from Russia, stopping everything right now = some families won't have energy to heat their homes, very important these days since EU got hit with a cold wave Also stopping everything right now mean no way to get the food industry to run properly and farmers to secure their production for next year People die in Ukraine, so but let's not add more death on top of them because of cold and famine https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/ukraine-sets-new-tariffs-for-russian-gas-transit-to-europe/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/ukraine-sets-ne...
- jamesmishra 5y agoI can't speak for the Ukrainians, but stopping the war is probably more important than the transit royalties.
- ilammy 5y agoAs an immediate goal – maybe, but how connected these things are? It's not like Ukraine getting paid their transit tariffs actively funds the war. Also, would the war stop if Ukraine takes a nuclear option and blows up the pipeline? Unlikely, I'd say. But that's a good way to jeopardize the future in N years, throwing away economic and political leverage like that. The war would go away – but so would the income and power.
- jamesmishra 5y agoBut it's a tariff on revenue that goes to Russian oil companies--all of whom have close ties to Putin's administration. Again, I can't speak for Ukraine, but I think their policy position is clear. It's not like the Ukrainians are saying, "Russian oil is great! Everybody buy it now!"
- ElectricalUnion 5y ago> I can't speak for the Ukrainians, but stopping the war is probably more important than the transit royalties. If it was so, then Ukranians themselves would have stopped the very profitable gas transit.
- beebeepka 5y agoDoes the world stop doing business with the US each time they invade a country, throw a coup, or is revealed to spy on literally everything and everyone, including its allies? No? Huh, I wonder why. Maybe it's their bullet sucking vacuum tanks that rebuild hospitals and schools. Or the democracy building aircraft carriers and the polio curing laser guided payloads they are so proud of. Freedom. Democracy. Values.
- DocTomoe 5y agoRemember, citizen: We were always at war with Oceania.
- beebeepka 5y agoI am friends with a couple where one is from Ukraine, and the other is from Moscow. Even though the Russian has been against the war since at least 2015, when I first met him, I should totally cut my ties with him and actively try to sabotage his life because that's what I've been told by the good guys across the Atlantic because their actions are not self serving at all. Man, do I need moral guidance
- MrYellowP 5y agoReading through the comment I'm both amazed and appalled about how people are mostly looking at things from the money-perspective, ignoring that people can less and less afford to heat, cook ... or even food. How disconnected from both reality and humanity can someone be? Freeze for Freedom! Starve for Freedom! Also noteworthy is, that people seem to believe the sanctions are harming the people of Russia, or its economy, more than it harms Europe or the rest of the world. ... lol Anyone thinking these sanctions are a good idea is completely wacko, out of this world. Politicians shit on us people for bullshit reasons with predictable outcomes, none of which are harming Russia (economy/people/government) significantly.
- sofixa 5y agoWhat do you propose then? Let Russia do whatever destruction and war crimes and genocides it wants? Or start a nuclear war? Those are the three options on the table, and the EU and US are taking the middle way. Yes, the sanctions are hurting Europe too, but their impact is enormous for the Russian economy and people.
- jusssi 5y agoI bet Mr P lives in a country that's not high up on Putin's bucket list. It's easy to call others idiots from that relative safety.
- unmole 5y ago> I bet Mr P lives in a country that's not high up on Putin's bucket list. I guessed I missed the memo. Which countries are on this list? Belarus? It's already a Russian puppet state. Georgia? Been there, done that. The Turkic states? They don't really fit into the Rus ethnostate mythos. The Baltics? They are already in NATO.
- jusssi 5y ago> I guessed I missed the memo. Which countries are on this list? Who knows except the man himself. That's the problem right there. Belarus? Why not make it official? Georgia? Maybe they deserve another round? Baltics? It'll be interesting to see how much effort NATO puts in over those. Certainly not nukes. Can turn them into rubble to prove a point, if nothing else. What about Hungary and Poland? Also, aren't you forgetting a couple of countries, scroll up on Google Maps...
- Bellamy 5y agoAs long as the people in Germany have less than three cars per family the need for gasoline is not going anywhere.
- t_mann 5y agoI don't get the point of this. As the article points out, it would be perfectly legal for Shell to sell refined oil products of 100% Russian origin. Why do they go to the length of blending it to 49.99% Russian origin and expect to get away with calling this "Latvian", in a day and age where far more clandestine operations become public knowledge in practically no time with p>0.99 (remember, Russian troop movements prior to the war were reported practically in real time with satellite imagery, something Putin surely didn't appreciate)?
- HonestOp001 5y agoTwo words: virtue signal.
- xyzzy21 5y agoThere's a FAR LARGER backdoor that allows oil, minerals, etc. to flow in far larger quantities to the USA.
- throw82473751 5y agopsssssst!! but yeah, buy cheap, sell expensive to Europe, while claiming high ethics and all for their independence :D typical win-win-win (just for us though..)
- d0mine 5y agoIt is outstanding: you can't deny war profiters the balls. It is genius
- andrei_says_ 5y agoWhen was war about something else?
- wdr1 5y ago"This Story is Unavailable in your region" I get the message both directly & via archive.ph https://archive.ph/Bq8af https://archive.ph/Bq8af
- ShivShankaran 5y agohere is a direct link https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-08/ukraine-war-this-backdoor-keeps-russian-oil-flowing-into-europe https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-08/ukrain...
- powerapple 5y agoI read the US import of Russian oil went up in India news clips shared online, is it true?