Even if heat pumps are more efficient, replacing gas heating with heat pumps (like what much of Germany is going to have to do) is still an increase in electric

Even if heat pumps are more efficient, replacing gas heating with heat pumps (like what much of Germany is going to have to do) is still an increase in electrical load. Similarly with railway. Electric rail engines may be more efficient, but the existing diesel engines are totally unrepresented in current electrical load. Even if total energy consumption goes down, huge amounts of fossil fuel usage in transportation and industry needs to be electrifed. The fact that they may be more efficient doesn't change the fact that they are totally unrepresented in current electrical energy usage. I stand by my point: decarbonization means our electricity usage is going to grow significantly as existing fuel-based energy is converted to electrical energy input.