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Inflation is ~8%. My mortgage is fixed 3.5%. New mortgages are 5%. I have no incentive to move period as don’t many others. Supply is constrained. Everyone rent

Inflation is ~8%. My mortgage is fixed 3.5%. New mortgages are 5%. I have no incentive to move period as don’t many others. Supply is constrained. Everyone renting is getting squeezed and wants to buy. New housing in desirable places locked up by NIMBYs and gov regulations. Housing prices will keep rising.

thr0wawayf00 5y ago
Don't forget corporations buying single family homes. A tremendous number of residential transactions are by commercial real estate firms buying residential instead to avoid parking their cash in commercial real estate as well as large-scale Airbnb investors.
tomatowurst 5y ago
its that primary residence owners aren't the main moving forces, it is the institutional funds, pensions that rely on low interest rates to scoop up properties, and those guys are no longer able to finance debt as rates keep moving up. if you open up a chart with real estate and rates, you will see a lagging positive correlation. during times of low rates, it is followed by a large property appreciation and vice versa. NIMBY and zoning regulations is a bit like "if we never build and sell prices won't fall" mentality yet the same real estate markets have gone through deflation after a global real estate bubble correction (late 80s) and remain depressed or stagnate for decades until interest rates rise again. Another backdrop is that we are at end of the road after the longest running QE (since '08) and around half of the monetary supply (top of my head) was printed in the past 2 years. We are in uncharted waters now and if the Chinese real estate market implosion and choking supply chains is any clue, we are headed for a pro-longed global recession that certainly includes real estate. The only safe havens have always been: art, limited production exotic cars, precious metals, gems and gold.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
88913527 5y ago
The intent of current monetary policy is to get control of inflation. Today, a move might not make sense, but that math may well change if the policy proves effective.

thr0wawayf00 5y ago

Don't forget corporations buying single family homes. A tremendous number of residential transactions are by commercial real estate firms buying residential instead to avoid parking their cash in commercial real estate as well as large-scale Airbnb investors.

tomatowurst 5y ago

its that primary residence owners aren't the main moving forces, it is the institutional funds, pensions that rely on low interest rates to scoop up properties, and those guys are no longer able to finance debt as rates keep moving up. if you open up a chart with real estate and rates, you will see a lagging positive correlation. during times of low rates, it is followed by a large property appreciation and vice versa. NIMBY and zoning regulations is a bit like "if we never build and sell prices won't fall" mentality yet the same real estate markets have gone through deflation after a global real estate bubble correction (late 80s) and remain depressed or stagnate for decades until interest rates rise again. Another backdrop is that we are at end of the road after the longest running QE (since '08) and around half of the monetary supply (top of my head) was printed in the past 2 years. We are in uncharted waters now and if the Chinese real estate market implosion and choking supply chains is any clue, we are headed for a pro-longed global recession that certainly includes real estate. The only safe havens have always been: art, limited production exotic cars, precious metals, gems and gold.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

88913527 5y ago

The intent of current monetary policy is to get control of inflation. Today, a move might not make sense, but that math may well change if the policy proves effective.